carmiel.arbit @c_arbit

A moral failure of unspeakable proportions, the Gaza war is also the result of a tactical, strategic and military failure. Israel is starving Palestinians in Gaza because it has proved unable to defeat Hamas by force of arms | Opinion | Joshua Leifer haaretz.com/opinion/2025-0…

Carmiel Arbit, Atlantic Council Middle East Programs senior fellow, talks about what's ahead now that there's a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Watch Balance of Power on @BloombergTV and @BloombergRadio at 1pm ET and 5pm ET on weekdays trib.al/8TjiSz9

🧵 On Wednesday, negotiators from Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire and hostage deal. Does this deal really mark the end of the war? Atlantic Council experts weigh in on what to expect next for Gaza, Israel, and the wider region. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…

We’re on the brink of a Gaza ceasefire deal - but the path ahead is far from clear. We’ll bring you the latest updates and analysis @TimesRadio from 7pm this eve. With guests including: 🤝@glcarlstrom 🇮🇱@DavidMencer 🇵🇸@MustafaBarghou1 🇺🇸@c_arbit times.radio

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🧵 On Thursday, Israel confirmed that it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Is this a turning point in Israel’s war in Gaza? What does the future look like for the region’s other Iranian proxies? Below, Atlantic Council experts share their insights: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…

What happens to Hamas leadership after the killing of leader Yahya Sinwar? Atlantic Council's Carmiel Arbit discusses trib.al/8tdL31r

🗓️ TODAY | 🕓 4:20 p.m. ET Yahya Sinwar is dead. What’s next for Hamas, Gaza, Israel, and the Middle East? Join @ACMideast’s @jpanikoff, @afalkhatib, and @c_arbit for an X Spaces conversation. x.com/i/spaces/1MYxN…

theguardian.com/world/2024/oct…

The year of war has shaped the views of a generation of young people, who now see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and America's role in it in starkly different ways than their elders. axios.com/2024/10/05/gen…

Israel vows to retaliate against Iran over missile strikes abc.net.au/news/2024-10-0…

"I think we are going to be looking at this as the new reality for a long time," says Atlantic Council's Carmiel Arbit on the escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran trib.al/2ADQJzH

Israeli domestic politics have lurched to the right post-October 7 One year after the tragic events of October 7, 2023, Israel has lurched only further to the right. Any effort to build unity among Israeli politicians—including through Benny Gantz’s initial entry into the governing coalition—was short-lived. Of the 250 hostages Hamas abducted, more than a hundred remain in captivity, and roughly half are presumed dead. The militant, populist voices of Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism parties have prevented any progress on securing a hostage deal, and they will continue to fight tirelessly to ensure a continued state of war. They have successfully hobbled the Palestinian Authority and ushered in a period of settlement growth and violence in the West Bank not seen since the second intifada. The future of Israel’s relationship with Gaza remains no more certain than it did on October 8. One year in, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has still failed to assume responsibility for the attacks of October 7—for the historic failure of the intelligence and security institutions that he built over his cumulative seventeen years as prime minister. He has proven as nimble as ever in holding his coalition together, and the hopes of so many Israelis for early elections have all but disappeared. Israel’s economy, which has already taken a hit during the controversial judicial reforms before October 7, has been battered by the war; a second front with Hezbollah will only harm it further. Yet despite all the turmoil, Netanyahu continues to pull himself out of the dregs and is regaining popularity: Recent polls show that while the prime minister could not necessarily reconstitute a coalition, he would still receive the largest number of votes of any party were elections held today. The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and any further successes on the Northern front will only bolster his numbers further. Israel’s left, for its part, already severely hobbled, has been decimated. Public opinion polling shows that Israeli and Palestinian views have only hardened against their neighbors. A full 66 percent of Jewish Israelis and 61 percent of Palestinians believe the other side “wants to commit genocide against them.” Right-wing views have been increasingly entrenched and mainstreamed—particularly as the once-marginal voices of Jewish nationalists now find themselves in positions of comfort and extreme influence in the government. Israel has still not recovered from the horror and loss of October 7, and the future of its leadership offers no clear path forward for a resumption of peace or prosperity for Israel in the region. —@c_arbit is a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

🧵 On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike on Friday. Where does Hezbollah go from here? Will Iran launch its own retribution against Israel? Atlantic Council experts share their insights: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…

Netanyahu’s support will be bolstered further by the successful strike After a year in which Israelis’ sense of security and deterrence had been shaken, the rapid succession of wins on a northern front of war with Hezbollah are significant. Israelis, many of whom have been distrustful of Netanyahu’s handling of Gaza and the hostage crisis, have been unified in their support of taking on Hezbollah. The made-for-television attacks against Hezbollah—from the pagers to the walkie-talkies to the stunning assassination of its notorious leader—have renewed Israeli confidence in their security apparatus. Netanyahu, who had already begun rebounding in the polls with each attack on Hezbollah, will be bolstered further. But the tens of thousands of Israelis displaced in Israel’s north may not be returning home any time soon: Hezbollah’s arsenal remains entrenched, and Iran’s response will be determinative. Israel’s strategy of targeted assassinations may yield impressive headlines, but it has yet to yield impressive results. — @c_arbit is a nonresident senior fellow for @ACMideast Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Carmiel Arbit, senior fellow of Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, discusses US efforts to push through a ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Watch Balance of Power at 1 pm ET and 5 pm ET trib.al/L28cUXX

Caught up with @BloombergTV to debrief on Bibis speech last week. youtu.be/GMemMvFD614?si…

Israeli Prime Minister framed the Gaza war as a larger regional conflict between Iran and the West in his address to Congress boycotted by dozens of lawmakers. Here is what our experts thought @WillWechsler @jpanikoff @TomWarrickAC @c_arbit @Emilia_Pierce_ atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…

Mourning passing of my boss and friend,Martin Indyk. Deepest condolences to Gahl and their family. תנחומים מן השמיים So many of us owe so much to Martin the peacemaker-diplomat.He never gave up on Israeli-Palestinian peace and neither do any of us have the right to that today.

Israeli Prime Minister framed the Gaza war as a larger regional conflict between Iran and the West in his address to Congress boycotted by dozens of lawmakers. Here is what our experts thought @WillWechsler @jpanikoff @TomWarrickAC @c_arbit @Emilia_Pierce_ atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…

The controversies plaguing Netanyahu at home followed him to Washington Before heading to Washington for his fourth address to Congress, Netanyahu had promised to deliver a unifying speech—to stay above the political disarray that has overtaken Washington, promote bipartisan support for the US-Israel relationship, and commit to a path to ending the war in Gaza. Insofar as he praised both Biden and former President Donald Trump, he was certainly less partisan than he was in his 2018 address decrying the Iran nuclear deal. Yet Netanyahu, aided by the extremism of his far-right coalition, has continued to preside over the politicization—and potential weakening—of the US-Israel relationship. Very little he said in today’s speech—which also failed to address a path forward—will change that. By some accounts, roughly half of the Democrats from the House and Senate were absent from the event; compare this with the fifty-eight who sat out his address in 2018 and the five who boycotted Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s speech earlier this year. Democratic legislators are fed up with Netanyahu, who has all but endorsed Trump publicly and whose right-wing rhetoric and kowtowing to extremists is anathema to the party’s values. Their patience for the war in Gaza has waned significantly in the months since October 7, as the death toll among Gazans and hostages alike only grows in the absence of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Yet despite this snub from so many members, Netanyahu will still have meetings with Biden, Harris, and both House and Senate minority and majority leadership. No matter how disliked Netanyahu may be, or how politically charged the war in Gaza may be for many Americans, the meetings underscore the enduring strength of the relationship between the two nations—or, as Netanyahu put it, that the victories of the countries are shared. Still, Netanyahu’s addresses to the United States are never really intended for American audiences alone, and he is deft in leveraging both negative and positive receptions in Washington to bolster his standing at home. The divisions and controversies plaguing Netanyahu in Israel followed him to Washington. His tribute to the hostages rang hollow for many Israelis—including those present in the Capitol today. Several family members of hostages being detained during Netanyahu’s speech was a startling image for Americans—and a reminder of the complexities of what’s at stake almost a year into the war. — @c_arbit is a nonresident senior fellow in the @ACMideast Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.