Chris Ling | NLH @chrisling_dev

@kirbyongeo 🫡

Open source must win

z80.wei 👌☀️👌 @0xz80

a week ago

it’s so funny that “evil oppressive china” is just releasing open source frontier models while the “land of the free” is single-handedly dictating one by one exactly who gets to use our frontier models

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@capexbt "Nobody is talking about what’s happening with Saylor right now" lmao

As part of our pursuit of continually refining and upgrading protocol security measures HyperLend is today introducing our newly created Veto Council. The Veto Council is a protective board made up of close partners, investors and key Hyperliquid community members. The Council functions as a backstop, with the ability to cancel queued protocol multisig transactions if any of the Core Team became compromised. We continue to strive to exceed industry security standards. gLend.

AGI is here

Sauers @Sauers_

2 weeks ago

Amazing

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i have lost it all ( millions of dollars ) and im quitting crypto forever. all i ask for is 2 minutes of your time before you lose it all as well. i joined crypto during the first bear market many years ago, when bitcoin crashed 85% and many alts disappeared forever. back then crypto seemed like something “mysterious”. second bear market, when ftx / luna collapsed, was also COMPLETELY different from what is happening now. im not even talking about the price action. we are not even in a bear market yet btw, btc will be at 28k soon. crypto’s image and reputation are destroyed. this is not what the last 2 bears were like. everything has changed. liquid money is split between to many different sectors. let’s start with this, you cant even scroll any social media platform without seeing a gambling ad or prediction platform. these influencers always find an excuse to post that promotion and get away with it. “i lost 500k trading, now im gambling to make it back. i made it.” translating: no he didn’t make SHIT. he has no skills. he got paid for the promotion and his session luckily hit. they want to get you on a hook and lose every single dollar you own. these guys genuinely have NO money. NO MONEY. degenerate liquidity is split between 10 prediction platforms, 1000 gambling websites, and 10,000,000 memecoins. there is NO liquidity left to satisfy everyone. it will ONLY get worse. during the last bear, it was 1 platform, 100 websites and 10k memecoins. even if liquidity REMAINED the same, it has now split another 10x. crypto and memecoins have a terrible reputation. people DO NOT trust this space anymore. even i don’t trust solana tokens anymore. i have made tens of 500x and 1000x calls, but what i see now is just taking a piss, coming back 5 minutes later and seeing a token at -80% in SECONDS. you really think these “rich traders” have money and post gambling bullshit for fun? no they don’t. and im here proudly saying that I HAVE LOST IT ALL AND IM NOT HERE TO LOSE MY INTEGRITY BY PROMOTING A LIFE KILLER. and im saying this for everyone. just admit you are broke, too hard? you know everything yourself bro. stop pretending ur a millionaire. to solana traders, you guys really think there will be another run? who is coming to bid your tokens? are you absolutely blind? ansem posting pumpfun fees and low mc tokens again is the ultimate top signal for solana. there is no one bigger than him in terms of attention and reach. i like his approach though, he is always pushing real belief, but bundlers won’t ever listen as they are in a comfort zone and real “community members” are out of money cause bundlers took everything. it will only get worse. each shill will get less and less eyes. how exactly does this get better? every token has hidden bundles that nuke 24/7. there are MILLIONS of old tokens. there is simply NO liquidity to make everyone happy. quit before it’s too late. RUN. was fun. this is it for me. trading nowadays is self torture. legit developers get destroyed because there is no buy pressure after the first 8 hours of a project, while bundlers keep winning because they control the narratives. real builders get farmed and forgotten. the game is finished.

my humble opinion is that it doesnt matter whether tradfi goes up, saylor could be right with the direction but still wrong with his hodl and pray for btc to bounce eoy strategy as it would not have played out well if we're following previous cycle (which seems like we are) my other humble opinion is that anthropic / openai IPO might not turn out as well as most people think because of open source models: I used to be obsessed with claude so much that I think I should sell my house and buy anthropic stock if I ever get a chance, but I am now increasingly relying more on open source modes and less on claude (qwen 3.7 is really a beast at agentic workflows that anyone can self host) I think anthropic and openai IPO hype were somewhat based on their traction in H1 2026 but they are now facing some new and bigger challenges (ban on fables, scaling etc) while open source models (deepseek v4, qwen 3.7, google's gemma 4, glm 5.2, etc) are clearly starting to disrupt that and I think all of these might have some impact on the IPOs expectations

For saylor to not own a single bitcoin the sell pressure would be catastrophic to our industry. My hope is that they will be forced to sell a good amount of BTC pushing the market down a bit more and mNAV drops below certain threshold (eg <0.75), and someone really large that actually does productive work and ideally not already well known for buying btc (eg apple, nvidia, etc) steps in to acquire the entire company, which effectively: - allow a large new buyer to accumulate btc without much slippage since they are not buying off otc/exchanges, but instead buys the entity that holds the btc - boost industry confidence at the bottom with new player owning a large btc stack in a healthy way - retires all the financially over engineered ponzis and put those btc in good hands in a healthy way

If the 4 years cycle holds, $BTC bottoming end of year and recovering next year will not save $MSTR and $STRC In the previous bear market, BTC traded around 20-30k in June 2022, a little less than 50% from last cycle peak at 69k. Today BTC is also trading at a little less than 50% of current cycle peak of 126k. Many are sitting here at 62k thinking "yea its fine BTC will bottom by EOY after the IPOs are done and recover and MSTR will be fine" Just for fun, lets do a little time travel to last cycle: Its June 2022. You're sitting at $24k BTC. You think to yourself: "yea its fine BTC will bottom by EOY and recover" And yes you're right, by EOY BTC indeed bottom'd. And yes you're right again BTC starts to recover in 2023. By June 2023 BTC would trade in the same range of 25-30k. If this plays out similarly to last cycle, we could see BTC at 60k-70k by June 2027. Strategy has about 6-7 months runway. Their average purchase price is >75k. Their first put date is 15 Sep 2027. Do with that information what you will. Every time you think "its fine btc will recover and MSTR will be fine", know that yes btc will recover but there's a scenario that has actually played out in the past that may not be fast enough for MSTR to be fine unless they start selling BTC soon.

Chris Ling | NLH @chrisling_dev

a month ago

To make things worse: mNAV is misleading. the website's claimed 0.0022 btc per share is also misleading. MSTR isn't directly redeemable for the underlying BTC so it makes no sense to use `btc/common shares` as a metric since the introduction of STRC. In the event of

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@boldleonidas Aktually… Saylor buying 2000 bitcoins was also somehow red candle

Every time they sell some BTC, it decreases BTC per share, one of the main metric they’re trying to optimize for. And when they issue STRC later to buy more BTC, the new issuance dilutes BTC per share (because pref shares has priority claim over underlying btc if they default hence weakening common shares MSTR’s btc “backing”) Both selling BTC and issuing STRC reduce MSTR’s btc per share and hence the mNAV, making it more difficult to raise new capital and more likely that they need more cash to repay debt as it becomes less likely that the notes convert in about 15 months

if not already clear, why MSTR repricing down and mNAV going down is such a big deal: - raising STRC dilute MSTR's actual backing hence should reprice MSTR down - the debt notes grant bond holders right to demand full cash at par 1 year in advance if its OTM, with the first one on 15 Sep 2027. With MSTR repricing down it will be nearly impossible for these notes to convert and Strategy needs $1b cash before 15 Sep 2027. - with MSTR repricing down and hence mNAV, it becomes harder to issue / sell more equities to finance the entire thing - and without cash STRC dividend cant sustain and hence cant raise more capital from STRC So on one hand Strategy needs about $6b cash before 15 Sep 2027 + ongoing dividend commitment, on the other hand they're running out of options to raise more cash. That said I think STRC is relatively safer to hold in the "backing" sense given it's priority claim over underlying assets above MSTR. But as seen with FTX, Mt Gov, etc, if it ever gets to that funds likely take couple years to return to users if Strategy defaults, not saying it will default but Saylor has to sell a lot of BTC as alternative way out before these key dates

"STRC is not supported purely by market confidence. It is also supported by Strategy’s balance sheet, including BTC holdings that can now be sold to maintain the peg" If the same BTC/balance sheet is supporting both STRC and MSTR (and the upcoming notes), the current "btc per share" metric for MSTR makes no sense and should not be 0.0022, it should be diluted by STRC and the notes, at about 0.0017 per share. mNAV should also come down significantly as MSTR reprice to its actual "backing"

To make things worse: mNAV is misleading. the website's claimed 0.0022 btc per share is also misleading. MSTR isn't directly redeemable for the underlying BTC so it makes no sense to use `btc/common shares` as a metric since the introduction of STRC. In the event of liquidation, pref shares (STRC) + debt notes are prioritized above common shares (MSTR). So the real assets giving common shares value is btc value - debt - outstanding STRC, about 0.00175 BTC/share (~$115/MSTR share). Another key date to watch: 15 sep 2027. Many think that the notes maturity start from 2028 so the debt is non-issue for now but the notes grant bond holders one-time scheduled investor put on September 15, 2027, exactly one year earlier, at par in cash, with the rest following in the next 12 months. "Holders of notes may require MicroStrategy to repurchase their notes on September 15, 2027 or upon the occurrence of certain events that constitute a fundamental change under the indenture governing the notes at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be repurchased, plus any accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the date of repurchase." (source: businesswire.com/news/home/2024…) Realistically Saylor needs 8b by Jun 2027, I think...

perry @perry8888_

a month ago

MicroStrategy's position is deteriorating rapidly. In 4 months: — USD reserves is down 60% to $900M — Annual div obligations DOUBLED $835M → $1.65B — Reserve coverage shrank 30 months → 7 months — BTC sold: 32 BTC (first since 2022) — STRC @ 11.5%, now trading below par at

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