King of bongo @codefendant693

Joined November 2023

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Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter

8 months ago

NEW TRADE: Measles Cases Market @Kalshi Pulled CDC week-by-week data and ran a fwd model to check how realistic is for total US measles cases to be above 2,000 this yr 1) outbreak has already collapsed – Classic wave → plateau → collapse structure; weekly cases falling 40 → 18 → 3 – No evidence of new transmission chains forming; a yr-end spike would need to reverse a the contraction 2) fwd scenarios using weekly additions – Low case: +5/week – Base case: +20/week – Outbreak case: +50/week 3) results across all paths – Low ends ~1,828 – Base ends ~1,918 – Even the 50/week stress scenario peaks ~2,098 To justify >2000 with confidence, you’d need 70–100 cases/week, don't think happening this late in the curve our read Market pricing for “Above 2000” looks optimistic. With six reporting weeks left and the outbreak curve collapsing, the >2000 outcome seems overestimated. buying some NOs here. mkt in comments.

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King of bongo @codefendant693

2 years ago

@piersmorgan Please let this be the last time Rabbi Schmuley was mentioned in YouTube. Ok, not censor, but also don’t give audience. There are millions of other voices in the World that get obscured/ignored for every second this clown 🤡 appears on our screens.

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King of bongo @codefendant693

2 years ago

@lopezobrador_ Esque estás muy tibio mi cabecita preciosa de algodón.

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DW Español @dw_espanol

2 years ago

#DWVerifica la teoría conspirativa del “marxismo cultural”, un supuesto plan para acabar con Occidente #JavierMilei es uno de los propagadores de este concepto que nació en los 90 y que asegura que se trata de un programa manipulador de política progresista destinado a socavar los valores occidentales y cristianos. /cc

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DW Español @dw_espanol

2 years ago

Lula acusa a Israel de cometer un "genocidio" en Gaza El presidente brasileño, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, acusó el domingo a Israel de cometer un "genocidio" contra civiles palestinos en la Franja de Gaza y comparó sus acciones con la campaña de Adolf Hitler para exterminar a los judíos. En respuesta, Israel convocó al embajador brasileño este lunes. /cvml

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King of bongo @codefendant693

2 years ago

@Claudiashein Eso es todo mi Clau! La quiero mucho 🫶

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King of bongo @codefendant693

2 years ago

@XochitlGalvez Eso mi Sóchil! Campeona! 🤠🥇

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King of bongo @codefendant693

2 years ago

@samuel_garcias Eso mi Sammy! 👽

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King of bongo @codefendant693

2 years ago

Estaría chico un debate entre @XochitlGalvez y @Claudiashein facilitado por Diego Ruzzarini y Carlitos Muñoz. Igual se jalan al reelevo de @samuel_garcias ¿cómo se llama?