小吴eric @crypto_ericwu

《如何提升LOL比赛预测能力》我觉得其实没那么玄学，核心就是：多看、多猜、多复盘。 1. 大量看比赛 LPL、LCK 尽量多看。每场赛前先自己判断谁赢、多少概率，赛后对比结果。如果猜错，就复盘原因：是阵容理解错了、选手高估了、队伍不熟悉这套阵容，还是单纯运气不好。 2. 熟悉版本每个版本都了解哪些英雄变强、变弱，哪些英雄 Rank 强、哪些职业赛强，以及当前版本的主流体系。 3. 了解选手关注选手实力、状态、英雄池和打法。比赛前可以看看 OP.GG、排位数据。关键选手还可以看看排位，判断他最近到底会不会某个英雄。 4. 练 BP 和阵容不要只看英雄强不强，要看“五个英雄 + 五个选手”组合起来到底强不强。看多了以后，慢慢就知道哪些阵容是真的强，哪些只是纸面上好看。 5. 强迫自己给概率不要只说“我觉得 A 赢”，而是说“A 65%”。长期记录，才能知道自己所谓的 70% 到底准不准。 6. 训练实时判断和止损比赛开始后，如果局势和预期不一样，就重新判断胜率。不是因为亏钱了就止损，而是判断自己的概率是不是变了。 7. 训练关键团判断后期 Baron、远古龙等关键团之前，提前判断哪边更容易赢。重点看经济、装备、阵容、Flash、大招、关键技能、视野和地形。尤其注意 C 位有没有 Flash。 8. 最后再看 Polymarket 价格真正要判断的不是“谁会赢”，而是： “我的概率和市场价格有没有差距？” 比如我觉得 TES 65%，市场只有 55¢，这才是我真正想找的机会。最终就是一个循环：看比赛 → 赛前预测 → 看 BP → 看比赛 → 实时判断 → 关键团预测 → 看结果 → 复盘 → 修正认知。一直重复。看 10 场可能没什么感觉，但认真看几百场以后，对选手、阵容和版本的判断应该会完全不一样。

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Eivor @Eivor_Koy

5 days ago

Once Upon a Time in the Middle East is China’s hottest movie right now. Based on a true story: a Chinese chef opens a restaurant in Iraq during the early 2000s war. He goes there just to make a living and pay off his debts. When the war breaks out, this ordinary guy ends up protecting children and the wounded in the middle of the rubble. But it’s more than a survival story. This is Chinese cinema finally telling the world’s stories through Chinese eyes — not just using foreign settings as backdrop for Chinese concerns. Why do the world’s stories only come from Hollywood? Why can’t we compare different versions — the American soldiers’ “hero” narrative, or an ordinary Chinese cook making food for kids in the ruins? For people in developing countries, it quietly raises questions that usually get ignored: Whose bombs destroyed their homes? Who actually wants them to stand on their own? Art is never just art. What we see shapes how we understand the world. More voices mean a better chance of real and objective understanding. The movie is not about “casting other nation as the invader”. Just a different lens from Hollywood — showing the real suffering of ordinary people in war. Worth watching.

Pamphlets @PamphletsY

a week ago

🚨🇨🇳 TRAILER — Chinese film flips Hollywood script, casting America as the invader. “Once Upon a Time in the Middle East” follows a Chinese restaurant owner fighting to survive a U.S. invasion.