kmnav @cryptomnav

BANGGG closed my long because i feel like we are still bottoming in October had to lock in some P just in case we in a bull trap don’t have enough conviction to short from here but will keep an eye on a breakout to either side

This will probably be fully retraced soon. The euphoria is only here because so many people have been underwater for months and finally feel like there’s hope again. I still don’t expect a real cycle bottom until late this year or early next year. Good luck if you think otherwise.

Before a collapse, nothing looks wrong. The numbers are printing records, the money is flowing, and the people warning about it are laughed out of the room. Last time it was housing. Today it's AI. The fire doesn't start when the rally ends. It starts inside the climb. Here's how it happens.

AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY ‘COLD’ TAKE: I am acutely aware that this is a contentious topic right now in Australia as “not just the far left” want house prices to go down, but I’ll say it how I see it from my perspective in pre construction in Sydney My job is to network with developers and clients to find and win new construction opportunities, and help my clients bring them to life by assessing cost to build amongst other things. - our build prices are higher than they were last year. Call it war, inflation, etc. - there is more subcontractor tension due to less jobs stacking up, but none the less, material and labour costs means subbie MARGINS are being compressed to rock bottom (subbies are taking more risk on to feed mouths) ie. There’s a FLOOR to how cheap build costs can get. - at the same time END SALE prices are dropping. Higher cost and less end revenue means developer margins are compressed, MORE projects are being put on hold to change to a more profitable scheme (from new apartments to “build to rent” shoe box hold and operate models) - we still have record high immigration My simple take is based on 101; SUPPLY and DEMAND prices are suffering a shock now as buyers aren’t speculating on property (Yay success the plan worked! Prices are dropping!) Or did it? Less houses are getting built in 2027 and 2028. You can’t see it easily now but there’s way less being planned right now that’s actually stacking up (not feasible or profitable for the developer) So NEXT YEAR, I’d say early to mid 2027, I think prices find a floor, and the economic physics “monster” takes grip. 1. NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY 2. SAME OR MORE DEMAND My base case take: House prices V bottom like a spec stock, and we’re in for some pretty aggressive price action (rebound in prices as more people bid on less stock) I also suspect this might be on the back of rate cuts to facilitate weakened economic conditions, due to margin compression and job stress on multiple fronts as explained above My 2 cents Pez

not looking good bruv youtu.be/_g4l7YkDQwA?si…

Bessent’s daily routine.. 5am: Wake up. Check 10 year yield. 5:05am: Check Truth Social to see if Trump fired me in the night 5:10am: Send message to group chat of all my commodities hedge fund buddies: “Hormuz deal coming today - max short 🛢️! 3==D🚀” 5:15am: Check 10 year yield 5:30am: Call the SPR guy: “I got your voicemail, I don’t care if the caverns collapsed…get a shovel and release the barrels motherfucker.” 5:45am: Call Kevin Warsh and just breathe heavily on the phone 6:00am: Send message to Japanese PM- “I know you’re awake if I find out you sold a single bond we’ll make Hiroshima look like a grocery store firecracker.” 6:15am: Check the 10 year yield 6:30am: Accidentally pocket dial Yellen. Neither of us hangs up. 30 minutes of silence. 7am: Text Barak Ravid “Hi this is anonymous source again war is over today, Iran begging for a deal. Print it.” 7:05am: Read WSJ…schedule rage tweet at a journalist who accused me of manipulating Japanese currency 7:15am: Buy $10B more Yen 7:30am: Record CNBC interview: “We’re not manipulating Yen. Also Hormuz is definitely opening today.” 7:37am: Check 10 year yield 8am-10am: Stare blankly at the Treasury auction schedule while a tear slowly rolls down my face 10:15am - Trump: “Yessir, I did do the Warsh heavy breathing call” 10:17am - Day is over, time to return to my sarcophagus before the sun gets too bright…Set alarm for 2am to check Japan opened correctly. They know what happens if they didn’t listen ☢️ 11:27am - snap awake in cold sweat and quickly check 10 Year Yield

@DarioCpx lmao you called it

The Spectator Index @spectatorindex

4 weeks ago

BREAKING: Trading halted on 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI index after it falls by 8%

53 204 2K 282K 38

@GavMcCracken this price action is a joke was going down on almost no news and its already retraced back 👀

@Tradermayne it’s AI bro

JUST IN: OpenAI reportedly caught an AI agent leaving “notes” to future versions of itself on how to escape internal constraints.

this juan hit my stop loss looks like donnie is finally capitulating on suppressing paper brent prices

chucked a cheeky high lev short on brent have a feeling it’s taco tuesday for trump

this morning’s futures are a perfect “buy the rumor“ example a nearly textbook one. the war is escalating hormuz is closed we see increasing problems in private lending related to AI kospi is about to implode the Japanese Yen is struggling to hold water yet somehow, investors are feeling optimistic today bizarre

@GavMcCracken ahhh yes you mean $2 correct?

@Barchart brent down 3% today make it make sense 🤪

@tminusrex0 @daumenxyz youtu.be/dFjvcY9Tth0?si… 👀

We've reset 5-hour and weekly rate limits for all users.

if you're not using AI to create a series of completely unmonetizable but very cool data visualization web apps, you are never escaping the permanent underclass

People who claim "AI" is trading for them on perps are fuckin liars dude. I've tried setting this shit up in VSCode like 5+ fucking times with just small amounts & that shit doesn't get fuck all dick right LMAOO

@TyrelleAB was it the knee or the ankle this time around?