IRResistible CAGRs🍁 @deepvalueco
Hunting maximum reward with minimum risk. Value is what's worth more in the future. Rambler at: https://t.co/5ulQ4oLPRQ ---DYODD- Not Advice Joined October 2018-
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This is exactly the conclusion that you'd come to by scanning the $FFH.TO portfolio... Mostly correlated cyclical bets that work (or don't) together.
That’s a good experiment! I decided to run it with Claude (paid plan) for $FFH.TO, $BRK.B and $MKL. Pretty surprising results if you ask me. With the important caveat that book value is an imperfect metric that is understating the real intrinsic value of these businesses.
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@tensorflow03 @ShanleyKevin Until recently they held things like Foran mining and Orla gold, both of which if they attempted to exit they would move the price lower. I don't know every name in their portfolio by heart but there are probably more.
Looks like $FFH.TO run rate ROE is at 9.6% which is basically what it mostly was before their COVID inflation trade worked for a bit.
@search4valueNew @BrownMarubozu I dislike this argument... It's purely reflexive. When it was 0.6x book the market indicated it was worth less... Other things have a premium so they must be worth more etc.
@rafoholic It's more something to build up to a small position over time rather than tactical but you're probably right, tactically Monday is probably better.
Nibbled on some ultra degen Reddit
@CDInewsletter @CapitalismWorld Must be. Probably need more than just capex moderation. But if the way they're going to go is shrunk the book down to this level of earnings it's still not particularly appealing imo.
Less of a cut than I thought. Payout ratio remains high vs earnings
BREAKING: Telus finally makes if official, cuts the dividend 55%. The new dividend is $0.1875 per share. A hearty lol a the press release, which doesn't even hint at the fact that this was a dividend cut. $T.TO
If there were "Generic Co." It could easily trade at $6 given only the variables of ROE and Balance sheet. Obviously withe the type of business, and size/brand, I don't expect it to get near there.
The core issue for $T.TO is no longer the dividend sucking the life out of them, it's now their 6.4% adjusted ROE and their overlevered balance sheet. (Which theoretically should juice the ROE) But, the price is getting closer to interesting if you want to bet on a turnaround.
@BrownMarubozu Right but if you incinerate all that added capital by buying $1 for $1.50 it doesn't help... Because we both know that the metric to measure is BVPS, and if that goes up 9.6% that's what matters.
@ShanleyKevin @tensorflow03 I suppose... And also the illiquidity discount on their MTM stuff where if they sold they'd have to take discounts because they're too big. Just a comment on the rate of book value increase.
@BrownMarubozu I meant this, which isn't exactly the same.
@CDInewsletter Yup. I don't know if it's as much of a given as some think that the earnings rebound will be entirely 'all good' again.
@tensorflow03 Which is more often a negative to buy back above book... But agree that hurts BVPS
@tensorflow03 Book value (plus dividend) has increased 4.8% over the last 6 months... Was what I should have said... Which is 9.6% annualized.
@tensorflow03 6 months annualized, yes
About $1.50 addition to NAV per share... Which might have meant something it the market cared about such things.
Looks like $DIR.UN just bought $DRM.TO 15% growth in asset management for 150bps of net debt to assets
Sometimes it's not about brains but wisdom.
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