Ding Dong @dingdongust

This summer a few junior colleagues asked me for feedback on their discussions. I realized I had a lot to say and nowhere to point them. Discussions are the one skill nobody teaches you in grad school. So I wrote it down. Ten suggestions for young scholars. 🧵

Dogma says “raise rate when inflation or long term rates pick up.” We say no, if there’s a fiscal crisis looming. It may be better to cause inflation earlier than later. Maybe paying an inflation tax today is a way to discipline governments. static1.squarespace.com/static/57844f0…

Major update of our paper "𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐞𝐫𝐬’ 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐫𝐬: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐃𝐨 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐬 𝐀𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞?" (with Dali Tsakadze) In this study, we build and analyze a novel data set that covers the daily calendars of Fed Chairs Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell. This allows us to document how the time allocation of Fed Chairs has evolved over two decades. Our analysis provides a new window into the institutional evaluation of the Federal Reserve. Some findings: -- all Fed Chairs spend more than 30% of their documented meetings with Fed staff, highlighting the crucial role of economists in the Fed’s decision process -- interactions with the media became more frequent during Bernanke’s tenure and remained important until the end of Powell’s tenure -- Powell held significantly more meetings with lawmakers than both Yellen and Bernanke, reflecting an increasing need for the Fed to engage with political actors --> much more in the paper! The new version of the paper is updated to include Powell's calendars through to May 2026, the end of his tenure as Fed Chair. We believe that pledge of the new Chair, Kevin Warsh, to overhaul some of the Fed’s institutional features makes our analysis particularly timely. It provides a useful benchmark for "what Fed Chairs do all day." Latest draft here: thomas-drechsel.com/papers/fed_cal… We also make the underlying data set freely available for anyone who is interested: thomas-drechsel.com/files/Drechsel…

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21764 Information and Macroeconomic Expectations: Global Evidence Francesco D'Acunto @Georgetown, Michael Weber @PurdueBusiness ow.ly/GBcP50Zq0UJ #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_MG #EconTwitter

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory" by Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li, and Francesco Zanetti. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

@anniesoyeanlee Congratulations 👏

The Fed just announced the leaders of the new task forces that Kevin Warsh spoke about in his first press conference: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre… It's an impressive list, including Raghu Rajan, Jeremy Stein, Chad Jones, Kevin Murphy, Greg Mankiw and Tom Sargent(!)

@kuhnmo @LeanneNam8 Thank you for the fantastic presentation and enlightening conversations!

Sargent Institute @pku_phbs and @hkbaptistu are organizing the 10th PHBS Macro Workshop on June 24-25 in Shenzhen, China. We have a fantastic program this year and please register via the QR codes or 🔗: v.wjx.cn/vm/YRyISEe.aspx if you are interested in participation.

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If the Url v.wjx.cn/vm/YRyISEe.aspx doesn't work, try the QR code:

Ding Dong @dingdongust

3 months ago

I can't wait for meeting and hearing from our fantastic speakers, including Thomas Sargent (NYU), @klaus_adam , @SakiBigio , Chao Gu (Missouri), Albert Marcet (CREI and BSE), Feng Dong (Tsinghua), @kuhnmo, Xuewen Liu (HKU), Zhen Huo (Yale) and @PooyaMolavi.

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I can't wait for meeting and hearing from our fantastic speakers, including Thomas Sargent (NYU), @klaus_adam , @SakiBigio , Chao Gu (Missouri), Albert Marcet (CREI and BSE), Feng Dong (Tsinghua), @kuhnmo, Xuewen Liu (HKU), Zhen Huo (Yale) and @PooyaMolavi.

Ding Dong @dingdongust

3 months ago

Sargent Institute @pku_phbs and @hkbaptistu are organizing the 10th PHBS Macro Workshop on June 23-24 in Shenzhen, China. We have a fantastic program this year and please register via 🔗: v.wjx.cn/vm/YRyISEe.aspx if you are interested in participation.

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@okuiryo27795 Fantastic organizing works and conference experience. Thank you!

@MinFangUR Congratulations! Looking forward to seeing you more often in the coming years.

🚗🔋 Many think Beijing masterfully planned China's EV takeover. Fengming Lu (@ANUBellSchool ) and I spent 3 years and 60+ interviews finding out what actually happened in our latest article @TheChinaJournal. A thread 🧵

I’m delighted to be a keynote speaker at the 3rd Workshop of the East and South-East Asian Macroeconomic Society at @hkust, Hong Kong, on 5–6 Sept 2026. Submissions from all areas of macroeconomics are welcome. Deadline: 26 June 2026

Super interesting! "Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations: New Evidence from the Past Seven Decades" by David Thesmar and Emil Verner. "We construct a new long-run series of subjective expected equity returns from an independent equity analysis firm, spanning 1956-2024. These expected returns are strongly positively correlated with the earnings-price ratio, respond negatively to past returns, and predict future returns. These patterns contrast with subjective expectations of individual investors and professional forecasters, which are weakly or negatively correlated with our new measure. Disagreement between sophisticated and individual investors is associated with higher trading volume. Our findings are consistent with a model of heterogeneous beliefs, where naive investors extrapolate past returns, rather than past dividends, while sophisticated investors are close to rational." nber.org/papers/w35286

Why do richer economies have more very large firms? This paper shows that the upper tail of the firm size distribution thickens as economies grow. A model of idea search explains why, showing how growth itself can produce rising concentration. econometricsociety.org/publications/e…

Thrilled to share a project I've been refining: a complete, open-source repository on "Deep Learning for Solving and Estimating Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance." I've cleaned up the materials from my PhD classes and summer schools into one coherent resource. 🧵 1/6

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Aggregate Costs of Uninsurable Business Risk" by Corina Boar, Denis Gorea, and Virgiliu Midrigan. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…