Danny Moses @dmoses34
Investor (looking for the next Big Short)/Inventor (BlackJack Side-Bet Games)/Skeptic (student of Behavioral Finance)/Hedonist; not Investment advice whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com United States Joined November 2015-
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Early drop of the "Friday Night Dirty" from our "What Are We Doing?" Substack. @VD718 dials in from Cali after a visit to $GLASF & shares his thoughts. @Seawolfcap says it's time to nibble on #energy ($TDW) & we opine on Warsh's first #FED meeting as Chair whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/p/california-d…
Might look expensive but @XSchauffele to make the cut at @usopengolf by trading “YES” at .79 cents @Kalshi is a decent risk/reward given his track record of 9/9 cuts made at this tourney in his career…
It's US Open week ⛳️🏌️♂️ @dmoses34 has some selections for this week's action at Shinnecock + thoughts on gold's price action✨ Go to kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!
It’s that time of the week for @Seawolfcap @VD718 and myself to have a “meeting of the donkeys”. A little REM to bring us in, which was also the theme of our Substack note this week. We discuss $SPCX $PCT #FED #OIL $GDXJ & some stocks being left behind. open.substack.com/pub/whatarewed…
I happened to bump into Dan @RiskReversal in his own studio of all places! We discuss the markets & I give out @Kalshi picks involving the #FED meeting next week & the $QQQM. We discuss @Kalshi's new deal with $SRAD & $TRLV's "Uplist" to the NYSE. Only thing missing was @GuyAdami
LIVE FROM NEW YORK, IT'S ON THE TAPE!!! @dmoses34 sits down with Dan Nathan in the @RiskReversal studios to discuss the AI buildout, SpaceX IPO, Warsh's first Fed meeting and an update on vice stocks. WATCH: youtu.be/jN4F-A8_tzo APPLE: apple.co/4e10Bhl SPOTIFY:
The second Anthropic filed to go public, @dmoses34 went straight to @Kalshi 📈 We also have action for tonight's NBA Finals Game 1 🏀 Go to kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!
Great to have @Convertbond back @OnTheTapePod. We discuss why he still likes $NUKZ and why the gold miners ($AEM) are primed for a move higher. We discuss $SRUUF and his bullish views on uranium. We hit #AI #FED #OIL #INFLATION $HD $MCD and more.
Lawrence McDonald is teaching us how to listen when markets speak! @Convertbond joins @dmoses34 on this week's pod to talk about the Fed, energy shocks, World Cup travel implications, gold miners, uranium and upcoming mega-IPOs YOUTUBE: youtu.be/mEnwznPeyA4 APPLE:
We wrote a note on Substack: "How I Use Kalshi" (for both information & trading). Infrastructure is being put in place to allow Institutional Investors to begin trading event contracts & we run through a few trading scenarios. @Kalshi @Seawolfcap @VD718 whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/p/how-i-use-ka…
The narrative is rapidly shifting from “sports” and “retail” to the “institutional” market and these volumes (futures) will only feed on themselves
Perpetual futures are finally coming to America. Trade on future asset prices with leverage in a regulated, institutional-grade environment. Only on Kalshi.
Special guest on today’s WAWD “Friday Night Dirty” @KeithMcCullough joined @Seawolfcap @VD718 and myself to discuss the markets and the @Hedgeye investment process. Yale Hockey vs Brown Rowing! open.substack.com/pub/whatarewed…
Always great to sit down with @pboockvar & get his thoughts/views on the markets. We had a @Kalshi speed round near the end of the episode regarding the U.S. economy and how it might look at the end of 2026. $MU $GLD #FED $FXI #OIL #Commodities $WMT
Are we overthinking this market or not thinking enough? @dmoses34 & @pboockvar tackle yields, housing, the Fed, and China's growing tech threat on the latest episode 🎙️ YouTube: youtu.be/VX9F6H-d02c Apple: apple.co/4nVgDwz Spotify: tinyurl.com/2tmfrrk2
I think the most misunderstood aspect of trading @Kalshi is that you don't need to wait for the "event" to occur to make money. Both contracts this week fall into that category. Place limit orders (GTC) at whatever price you want. The @PGAChampionship is a perfect candidate.
📈⛳️🏌️♂️Danny's @Kalshi picks of the week are here! Will the S&P 500 hit 8200 this year? @dmoses34 doesn't think so! We also go "bottom picking" for a nearly 70x flyer for the PGA Championship at Aronimink. Go to kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code
We (@Seawolfcap @VD718) reunited w/@CarterBWorth for another edition of "Bourbon & Charts". Some interesting takeaways as the "Chart Master" did his thing. We took ticker requests from whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com & then the bourbon kicked in: $SOXX $NVDA $XRT $CCJ $PCT $CF $FLUT $GLD $SLV $XOM $NKE $CVNA and more....
Bourbon & charts returns 🥃📈 @CarterBWorth joins @VD718, @Seawolfcap & @dmoses34 to break down the most extended semis chart since the dot-com bubble and what it might mean for what comes next. WATCH: youtu.be/F6p1s00YIck
Seeing Morgan Stanley now on the cap table, and with the proceeds being used to accelerate "Institutional" growth, it's just a matter of time before event contract volume in financial markets exceeds that of sports-related event contracts @Kalshi. Happy Birthday @mansourtarek_
Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others. In 2018, we were two kids who loved math, markets, and debate. And we had a dream: build the next generation financial market, where we capture a broader set
Always insightful, @profplum99 shares his thoughts on several topics, including the "rule" changes for index inclusion (equities & fixed income), what Warsh is stepping into at the #FED, & his views on the markets. I give out my @Kalshi picks: $GLD #FED & thoughts on GME/EBAY
Has passive investing "crossed the Rubicon?" Markets at all-time highs, a Fed in transition, and index rules quietly being rewritten. @profplum99 returns to On The Tape with @dmoses34 to explain why everything you thought you knew about passive flows may be changing. YouTube:
Just a reminder, that when $XOM updated its 2030 Corporate Plan last December, they assumed $65 Brent. @GuyAdami asked me if I still liked it here given the move. There will always be timing (hedges/deliveries & production) issues, but the answer is yes. investor.exxonmobil.com/company-inform…
New pod in your feed this morning with @GuyAdami and @dmoses34 🎙️ 🏦 Future Fed Chair Warsh Challenges 🛢️ Surging Crude, Market Resilience 💹 Rising Global Yield Concerns Watch or listen now⤵️ YouTube: youtu.be/RM9kx1VAUDM Apple: apple.co/3RzvgpD Spotify:
Fresh off the @NFL Draft, @RealTannenbaum shares his thoughts & we hit other topics, including what he's been building @The33rdTeamFB; "The most exciting two minutes in sports" & @StarlightRacing has two horses @KentuckyDerby & I preview the race; @Kalshi picks (8+ @Giants wins)
New pod in your feed this morning! @dmoses34 is joined by @RealTannenbaum, Former Jets GM/Founder & CEO of @The33rdTeamFB🎙️ 🏈 Draft recap & the biz of football in 2026 🏇 Kentucky Derby picks! 🏦 Updates on our Powell @Kalshi contracts YouTube: youtu.be/Tsgl9I7E54c Apple:
While everybody is focused on "sports" being the volume driver for Prediction Markets, the Institutional trading world is a bigger arena. This shift is inevitable and the trade (below) is an example of what is on the horizon...
The historical bottleneck for institutional risk transfer is liquidity. The bottleneck for liquidity is having a price benchmark for each relevant risk (eg. WTI for oil). Kalshi has built a large community of superforecasters who are the best in the world at pricing risk. This
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