Sean Johnson 🔥 @intentionally

I asked GPT one of those viral questions a year ago. “Predict my future.” One of the things it said was “obviously your net worth is going to go way up.” I said “why is that obvious?” “Because you live in Chicago. The Great Lakes region will have massive inward migration due to climate change.”

And then there were five.

@KaiXCreator Yep. Early days. But have paying customers (several switching from major incumbents), no churn so far (although I’m sure that’ll happen soon), and a waitlist. Doing several demos a week.

I'm officially "reading about how golf courses are maintained so I can make my lawn look nicer" years old

This is stunningly good.

Will Manidis @WillManidis

a month ago

x.com/i/article/2056…

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Reject this hogwash, America is electric right now. There’s opportunity everywhere if you’re willing to work, learn, risk trying things, and participate in life. The upside on optimism is uncapped. You live in the greatest period of innovation in history, fade the malthusians

Not to brag, but I’ve started using Opal to block social media 24/7. Today I only interrupted it 33 times.

I think about this joke at least once a month.

In adults, limiting smartphone functionality to texting and calls and blocking all social media and mobile internet for 2 weeks significantly improved attention, self-reported well-being and mental health. 90% of participants experienced a benefit.

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Information and wisdom are not the same thing.

Messing with @karpathy’s knowledge graph thing and already running into something; It seems like it’s an exponential token cost issue, because each new note has to iterate through all the other notes to look for relevant connections. Did I just set it up wrong? (Probably)

The world tells you that changing your mind is bad. But changing your mind means that you’re learning. It means you’re capable of discussing big ideas with smart people without getting defensive. It means you value the truth more than your ego. Change your mind regularly.

The hole I see: If capital captures most of the gains, labor income still falls. Most folks don’t have discretionary income. You get a barbell economy. The wealthy buy these human-intensive, high-status services. Everyone else is stuck consuming cheap AI-produced commodities.

Alex Imas @alexolegimas

2 months ago

New essay on the economics of structural change and the post-commodity future of work. 1. Almost any question about the impact of advanced AI on the economy needs to start at the same place: what is still scarce? Answer that, and the analysis becomes pretty straightforward. This

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Grew MRR six-fold in 24 hours. From 49-299. Surely this trajectory will continue.

This was super interesting, so went kinda deep into the weeds: - Surname sharing (Stone, IFS 2026): Couples who don't share a surname divorce ~50% more often and ~30% faster than those who do. But Stone admits the effect "reflects very large selection biases." Most of the gap probably disappears with proper controls. - Partisanship and marriage (Wilcox/IFS): Married Republicans are 7 points more likely than Democrats to report being "very happy" in their marriage. But when restricted to married people only and measured by ideology vs party, the happiness gap largely disappears. - Religious attendance and divorce (VanderWeele, Harvard): Weekly religious attendance associated with 50% lower divorce risk over 14 years. Women only. Mostly Catholic/Protestant, in their 50s at enrollment. - Nominal vs. practicing religion (Wilcox): Active conservative Protestants who attend regularly are 35% less likely to divorce than the unaffiliated. Nominal conservative Protestants are 20% MORE likely to divorce than secular Americans. - Shared prayer and happiness (Wilcox & Wolfinger): Couples who pray together weekly are 17 points more likely to report being "very happy." Shared prayer is the single strongest religious predictor, stronger than race, education, age, sex, or region. - Gender asymmetry in attendance (Wilcox & Wolfinger): Couples where both attend, or only the husband attends, are happiest. Couples where only the wife attends are the least happy, lower than couples where neither attends. - Who initiates divorce (Rosenfeld, Stanford): Women initiate 69% of divorces. Among college-educated women, ~90%. Divorce initiators' well-being improves; non-initiators' worsens. Women regret divorce at 27%; men at 40%. - Exercise and divorce (no landmark study): No prospective cohort comparable . But what does exist: marriage reduces women's fitness; divorce increases men's fitness; spouses influence each other's exercise habits when they stay together. In short: The strongest consistent predictor of marital stability is sustained shared religious practice. But probably because it bundles community, shared ritual, values alignment, behavioral norms, meaning, and social support. Note: "low divorce rate" is not a clean measure of marital quality; it blends quality with exit costs.

Brad Wilcox @BradWilcoxIFS

2 months ago

"Spouses who don’t share a surname divorce at about a 50% higher rate than those who do share a surname, and their divorces come about 30% earlier in their marriages." Striking new divorce research from @lymanstoneky reinforces my earlier research on marital quality & naming:

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No better feeling than getting those first paid customers.

C.S. Lewis gave a sermon at the beginning of World War II. He urged people to “not let your nerves and emotions lead you into thinking your predicament more abnormal than it really is.” And he offered a couple exercises to help combat anxiety and fear. Possibly helpful these days:  “The first enemy is excitement — the tendency to think and feel about the war when we had intended to think about our work. The best defence is a recognition that in this, as in everything else, the war has not really raised up a new enemy but only aggravated an old one. There are always plenty of rivals to our work. We are always falling in love or quarrelling, looking for jobs or fearing to lose them, getting ill and recovering, following public affairs. If we let ourselves, we shall always be waiting for some distraction or other to end before we can really get down to our work.The only people who achieve much are those who want knowledge so badly that they seek it while the conditions are still unfavourable. Favourable conditions never come. There are, of course, moments when the pressure of the excitement is so great that only superhuman self-control could resist it. They come both in war and peace. We must do the best we can. The second enemy is frustration — the feeling that we shall not have time to finish. If I say to you that no one has time to finish, that the longest human life leaves a man, in any branch of learning, a beginner, I shall seem to you to be saying something quite academic and theoretical. You would be surprised if you knew how soon one begins to feel the shortness of the tether, of how many things, even in middle life, we have to say “No time for that,” “Too late now,” and “Not for me.” But Nature herself forbids you to share that experience. A more Christian attitude, which can be attained at any age, is that of leaving futurity in God's hands. We may as well, for God will certainly retain it whether we leave it to Him or not. Never, in peace or war, commit your virtue or your happiness to the future. Happy work is best done by the man who takes his long-term plans somewhat lightly and works from moment to moment “as to the Lord.” It is only our daily bread that we are encouraged to ask for. The present is the only time in which any duty can be done or any grace received.2 Do you allow the enemies of excitement and frustration to interfere with the work God has called you to do? Let us leave futurity in God’s hands and work from moment to moment “as to the Lord”.

What’s the single highest ROI thing you can do as an individual to get ahead of this from a personal opsec standpoint? My mind goes to hardware 2fa. Anything else?

Anthropic @AnthropicAI

3 months ago

Introducing Project Glasswing: an urgent initiative to help secure the world’s most critical software. It’s powered by our newest frontier model, Claude Mythos Preview, which can find software vulnerabilities better than all but the most skilled humans. anthropic.com/glasswing

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Appreciate the intellectual honestly. Also seems like he's had other major benefits (microplastics reduction chief among them).

Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson

3 months ago

I think I need to be fired. I've done 232 dry sauna sessions. Last week I confirmed, for the first time (by swallowing a pill), whether the core temperature threshold that gates the primary cellular repair mechanism was actually being reached in my protocol. The threshold is

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Train Dreams is beautiful.