IRCB @ircb

A mixed bag of a Microblog that has now largely been superseded by more focused Twitter accounts Based out of South West London Joined January 2009

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IRCB @ircb

a year ago

@BristOliver Phantom Menance😲

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@MarinaPurkiss Not "High Tax", despite widespread misperception; UK collects LESS tax as % GDP than obvious comparator neighbours

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@MarinaPurkiss I've seen some comments suggesting a need for a growing economy is purely a Capitalistic imperative. But there is the Confounding Factor of the Baumol Effect.

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@BristOliver (For SC2 -- SARS-COV-2 -- the moderately vulnerable need to minimise risk of Hospitalisation or Worse, the highly vulnerable need to minimise risk of Infection, for which the efficacy durations differ)

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@BristOliver A logical approach would be to Model both the Issue and Management Options, then design Rules (eg Vaccinate for 'flu until Hospitalisations reduce to 10% of Peak), but societal acceptance of innumeracy means 'models are scary' so we end up with bizarre, illogical, rules like this

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@BristOliver Possible logical rules for Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) Vaccinations: - Seasonal ('flu, RSV): 2 weeks before forecast Onset Week till Hospitalisations drop to 10% of Peak - Random (SC2): annually for the moderately vulnerable, 3 times a year for the highly vulnerable

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@BCarnival The Live Stream that was supposedly starting at 18:00 doesn’t seem to be working; can you confirm URL?

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

TL;DR: "Salad leaf products that have been used in pre-packed sandwiches, wraps, subs and rolls, which are being recalled as a precaution" I always suspected that Rabbit Food was bad for you!😉 gov.uk/government/new…

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@DrCJ_Houldcroft I feel your pain🤦🏼‍♂️ I've had to tweak my L4 teaching to include topics that in the GCE era would have been expected of a 15-16 year age cohort🤷🏼‍♂️

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@DrCJ_Houldcroft Because the UK has a persistent, bizarre, narrative that we have "high taxes", yet actually collects comparatively significantly less funds (that could be used on things like infrastructure investments such as high speed rail) than our neighbours ....

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@BristOliver 2/2 I do wonder if rather than labour intensive Hospitalisation data, society missed a trick by not operationalising Waste Water Monitoring (WWM) prototyped during the Pandemic, across all Serious Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI), as that is far more amenable to automation?🤔?

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@BristOliver 1/ I do like to take a weekly peak at Serious Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) Risk, albeit for Winter 23-24 that has revealed, if one normalises the data, that Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) has typically been 2x the societal burden on SARS-COV-2 (SC2)

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@MichaelSFuhrer @mryoung151 @JPWeiland It seems there is an elephant in the room, which is that, for some reason, society has consistently underestimated the Total Burden of SARI (Serious Acute Respiratory Infections), brushing "long flu" (aka ME/CFS) under the carpet, and even now stovepipes 'Flu and COVID separately

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@ActuaryByDay @UKHSA Although "admissions from flu are within the medium threshold", if one aggregates with other SARI (i.e. SC2 and RSV), and adjusts for Fatality Rate, this (lagging) indicator is right on the cusp between Medium & High Thresholds ... so I'll rain check on relaxing quite yet😉

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@young1economist @john_actuary I think the NI narrative is more than a Myth; I've vague recollections in the pre-Internet era (hence, poor searchability!) of politicians actually making such claims about the purpose of NI ... albeit that nay be an Ebbinghaus Effect!

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@AdeleGroyer 😢

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@AngryExile @BristOliver I call the 16.4 Over contest That-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named

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IRCB @ircb

2 years ago

@BristOliver I did originally think Normalised Hospitalisations (i.e. only the "For", not "With") was only a Proxy for measured Prevalence like ONS Survey. I now wonder if it's a better metric, as one should arguably be more concerned about an Impact metric, than arbitrary Count🤔