nAsh @itsnvsh

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Treasury Secretary Bessent says a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as tomorrow.

CT has two moods: - "Sell everything." - "Generational buying opportunity." Sometimes they're only 30 seconds apart.

Crypto Rover @cryptorover

6 days ago

💥 BREAKING: US ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.6 vs. 54 expected. Economy is still expanding.

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JUST IN: BlackRock launches tokenized money-market fund on Ethereum.

The first time you see your portfolio drop 40% in a single day... You don't think about blockchain. You don't think about decentralization. You think about selling. A few months later, you stop checking the price every hour. A year later, you start paying more attention to builders than candles. At some point, you realize something. Crypto didn't change. You did. The biggest return wasn't in your portfolio. It was in your mindset.

Crypto Rover @cryptorover

6 days ago

Bitcoin dropped below $63,000 amid concerns over the hack targeting Coldcard wallets. The crypto market cap has lost $85 billion so far...

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People ask: "What token will do a 100x?" The better question is: "What skill can give me a 100x return?" The answer is probably: your social intelligence. In crypto, opportunities don't only exist on charts. They move through conversations. Through communities. Through relationships. The people who succeed are not always the ones who know everything. They are often the ones who: > know the right people > know how to build trust > share their ideas publicly > show up in the right places before others There is very little randomness. Your network is an opportunity algorithm. Build it.

I swear there are so many money beggers on this app Another crypto bottom signal for sure

JUST IN: Fed to inject $16 billion into the economy

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC Chair says "regulation by enforcement" against crypto is over.

Bitcoin is showing EXTREMELY oversold conditions on the rainbow chart.

🇺🇸 Fed will inject $16,021,000,000 in liquidity into the economy this week. Good for markets.

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Harvard is rotating capital to $ETH. Harvard Management Co. trimmed its Bitcoin ETF stake by 21%. Where did that money go? Directly into $ETH. They established a brand new position in BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA).

Bitcoin is heavily shorted right now. Even a small bounce triggers massive short liquidations, the biggest spike since 2024.

This guy bought a Pikachu for $5.3M in 2022. He scammed his community by selling 51% of the card for around $2.6M. Today, he sells the whole card for $16.4M. So karma doesn’t exist?

Whale Insider @WhaleInsider

6 months ago

JUST IN: Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator sells for $16,492,000.

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Huge upside liquidity for Bitcoin!

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency) Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money. But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question: 1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things 2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know. 3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk. (1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop. (2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high. This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk. Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58. Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether? Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses". Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability. Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate. Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.

JUST IN: Bitcoin reclaims $70,000.

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I'll say it again 10 months later. There are a lot of meme coins that came around this cycle that have charts that look similar to this. There aren’t many that I feel nearly as confident in as $PENGU. Don't fade Luca.

K A L E O @CryptoKaleo

a year ago

There are a lot of meme coins that came around this cycle that have charts that look similar to this. There aren’t many that I feel nearly as confident in as $PENGU. Wouldn’t be surprised if it spends another few months in this lower range building a base before ripping back,

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🚨POWELL IS IN A BIG TROUBLE NOW. Just now, US CPI and Core CPI data got released. CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, while Core CPI came in at 2.5% vs. 2.5% expected. The US CPI is now at its lowest level since April 2025, right before when tariffs were imposed. Core CPI is at its lowest level in almost 5 years, when the entire US economy was in lockdown. This means, despite the Fed's claims of inflation heating up, it's trending lower. Meanwhile, the other aspect of the US economy is breaking. The labor market is getting worse. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Corporate bankruptcies are hitting 2008 crisis levels. This is a clear sign that the Fed has committed a huge policy mistake. The Fed has been hawkish for longer than expected, which is harming the US economy. In 2020-21, they remained dovish longer than expected, which caused inflation to spike. This time, the real risk is deflation, which is far worse than inflation. With each passing day, it feels like Trump's comments around "Too Late Powell" are true.

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Go bitcoin today. The money won't fix itself.