John Mason @johnkmason
Product @mercury, public equities/options. Eternal superalloy cubes @ https://t.co/fz34u7r194. prodmason.com Switzerland Joined April 2014-
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@biotech_bro How would you look at it differently?
Okay, thought about it more on my run today and shorted as much $ABVX Paris as margin would allow at €137.8 ($157.6) avg to lock in gains. Down to 15% net pos incl IRAs. If $155+ holds Monday I'll clear all but Oct lots I'm aiming for LTCG on. See back of envelope r/r below.
Sold the other half at €136. $155 too good a r/r. Down to 22% of NW, mostly taxable
@FDomitianus No do you see the positions are offsetting, with the long pos larger than the short?
@biotechsanya2 Hahaha. fwiw, I told it to just output the sensitivity table nicely, but had the %ages and outcomes (starting from 80% as base case) in mind ahead of time. The analysis doesn’t have to be super complex or deep to be right :)
@ardaarkun @LesseJivermore So say we take your $600m FCF as a base case. The insurance proceeds are one-time, so isn't the actual run-rate just 12.5% (500m/4000m)?
Sold the other half at €136. $155 too good a r/r. Down to 22% of NW, mostly taxable
Sold half of my $ABVX Paris lots at €123.9 ($141 equiv) just now. Down to a 30% pos
@GibbyCapital @ardaarkun Yes, and I specifically wanted to double check because they did less than 600 OCF TTM and also like 300m in capex so not sure where he’s getting 600 in NTM from
@Mr_Neutral_Man Sold some $ALX at $280 for mom today. Been a beaut to hold since $206-209
@sk01225 Just keeping the cash for now. There’s been so many attractive dislocations YTD in smidcap biotech, multiple times ($PALI, $IKT) yet I missed most because fully allocated (+ $PALI exposure overlaps with $ABVX). With YTD>60% can wait to see if more happen. If not, no worries.
Sold half of my $ABVX Paris lots at €123.9 ($141 equiv) just now. Down to a 30% pos
Actually I grabbed a lot of $ABVX (increased pos by 17%) in 82s in IRAs using cash from $QURE reduction. Will reduce in taxable next week at what I expect to be higher levels than $94
Hypothesis: knee jerk short covering, perhaps? In limited volumes, though, hence the pretty quick mean reversion each time. Although Jan I believe at least some of the mean reversion piece post spike was Sofinnova selling, based on their filings.
And now today, fading from my sale: x.com/johnkmason/sta…
Sold half of my $ABVX Paris lots at €123.9 ($141 equiv) just now. Down to a 30% pos
Wanted to start an ongoing🧵of weird/minor mispricings/potential alpha I notice over time as I play in public markets.
True! But think that's partly b/c of the high buyout probability priced in at start of year. I think @seedy19tron/@A_May_MD are right (modal outcome) that $ABVX sells for $20b+, but as price rises higher prob (of acq/CD success) being priced in, and R/R of trimming (esp given my sizing lol) increases.
@Liv4theBeat Also (revised with actual receipt post): x.com/johnkmason/sta…
3) Persistently euphoric overnight/ $ABVX Paris bid after any M&A rumor that then fades. This has happened like 4 times now, mostly after La Lettre releases, I've sold into it 3 times incl this one, receipts below. Jan 12: x.com/johnkmason/sta…
@Liv4theBeat a) Def primarily portfolio sizing. b) $21B sale at new FDSO is $210. As we approach $210 we're pricing in higher probability of near-term sale, so happy to avg up sale prices. c) All my sales so far were in IRAs (I had 5/8 of ABVX in IRAs), so tax-free.
Okay actually I trimmed 1/4 at $135 today. 45% is too concentrated for me, will sleep better with it lower, esp as I blow through NW goals and preference skews towards risk-off. Will continue to trim at 150 (or buyout ;)
Agree on valuation, but suspect the easy money will only be to ~$150 (which is when I plan to begin trimming as this pos is huge for me now - 35% BEFORE readout). Then mkt will slow down to discount CD/buyout premium probability.
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