Jon Ogg @jonogg

Investor with 30 years stock, bond, economic coverage. Financial newsletter for Advisors, Active/HNW investors looking for gains and income. Texas Joined December 2008

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 weeks ago

@Budgetdog_ Market Indexes like S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ-100 don't have to listen to the media claims of "uncertainty" all day and they don't make the actual emotional and behavioral mistakes that investors make (even if their prices are dictated by fear, greed, inflows and outflows.

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 weeks ago

@Jkylebass There is always $BATRA and its trading basically at all-time high

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 weeks ago

SpaceX $SPCX market mechanics debate as many are "perma-long." Look at: Put/Call option volume (1 contract=100 shares) Open Interest Volume of inverse/leveraged SpaceX ETFS like $SPCH $SNK $SPCF $SPAX Cost/shares to borrow (for shorts)... IS THE TAIL NOW WAGGING THE DOG?

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 weeks ago

@lhamtil In 10 years, if the only super-majority solution in Congress is "means test" then what's the math? And if you know you are "means-d out" do you have to keep contributing? My dad used to say he didn't need it, but he paid in 65 years for ~19 years of it before dying. Math please?

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 weeks ago

@jimiuorio I agree, mostly when average age lowers via Attrition alone. Me as GenX, my 10-year outlook: "Silents" will be "permanently muted" "Boomers" will be "more silent" GenX will have very little say Then bad ideas and AI may dictate "please us but not you" policies.

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

3 weeks ago

I was lucky to get in SpaceX thru buying into xAI in 2024. I knew there were funds and public companies with shares from various funding/deals as well, but there are at least 11 funds/stocks that have accumulated pre-IPO stakes over the years. oggonomics.com/11-stocks-fund…

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

a month ago

@growthrapidly I thought $MRAM was.... I owned & traded in & out for a year. After I finally threw in the towel waiting, it surged under Murphy's Law for Investors. They have some limitations and high valuations, even down 12% today and even -48% from absolute high and -38% from closing high.

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

a month ago

Is Costco stock $COST back in No-Man's Land after earnings failed to hold $1000+? May "breakout"was very-very short-lived (headfake?). Closing prices vs. intraday highs look even worse in start 2025-present. And this... 45 forward P/E still well under 1% dividend yield slower growth opportunities Will new prospective investors look elsewhere, or existing investors trim/reallocate?

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

a month ago

@SenWarren Look at Jan-2021 to Jan-2025 cumulative inflation. It's over 20% cumulatively, and that is just using the straight BLS CPI inflation calculator. Let that sink in. data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpical…

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

a month ago

I figured court wouldn't rule for @elon in OpenAI case due to time (I was for Elon!), but the whole "from non-profit to being Microsoft's familiar pet until countless billions get paid back" was a mess (as well as the internal feud). It prevented some from investing in OpenAI.

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

Now look at some of the big and widespread companies that hit/challenged 52-week lows in last few days... $HD $IBM $MCD $ISRG $ABT $MDT $ACN $BSX $MRSH $CTAS $OTIS $DHR $NRG $FIS $EFX $LULU $NKE $CDW $MKC $BBY $Z $ACI $BLDR $MOS $PPC $POOL $LPX

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

The top 10 S&P500 $SPY stocks ~37.7% of entire index weight (backed out $GOOG X2). $SPY vs equal weight $RSP shows continued huge disparity as 250+ companies hardly matter to weight/gains. $SPY vs $RSP: 1wk +1% vs -1% 1mo +6.9% vs +1.5% YTD +8.8% vs +5.8% 1yr +26% vs +14%

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

@SaraEisen From Claude this morning... Government math versus financial math

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

Does the good old Gold:Silver ratio even actually hold any relevance today? Using $GLD $SLV ... Gold now -15.5% from high Silver now -27% from high Both are of course after explosive moves higher, followed by the 2026 pullbacks. Performance over time recent and past from Fiviz:

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

I was curious about the actual math for a balanced budget for NYC as government math with internal and external financing assumptions is often different from real math that people have to live by... So I asked Claude...

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

@LarryJones Not taking cash forces higher prices period: 2.3-2.9% surcharge (swipe fee) paid by customer and 20-28% interest if customer carries a balance. It can push people over their credit limits, now or next transaction. Biz's shouldn't have to make change, but should have to take cash.

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

@growthrapidly By the way, thanks for posting this. Some very interesting and underfollowed growth stocks have been mentioned in this thread today. I love when the community actually engages and shares info. The fear of being wrong keeps too many people from sharing thoughts in public.

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

@growthrapidly $UPS is a name everyone knows, but no one wants to buy. It has been in the Amazon penalty box for too long. I hope they continue to pull back from their "largest customer" even more. Stock lower than pre-Covid levels and stock has not seen FedEx $FDX type of recovery yet.

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Jon Ogg @jonogg

2 months ago

Gold $GLD now -18% and Silver $SLV now -40% from fresh all-time highs after January's parabolic surge. High prices cure high prices even in runaway markets, maybe with some regulatory and intra-industry actions to boot.