Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

Director, Eurasia Group Nonresident Senior Fellow @CEPA All views are mine, not the company’s. Ex Credit Suisse, WSJ, BBC London, England Joined January 2010

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 weeks ago

Russia's mkt had the longest losing streak since '97, back to '22 levels. It's an economy with no capital source but loans and the state, and a public with no way to save other than deposits — which end up funding the war. With @amenka for @ru_thebell en.thebell.io/war-chokes-rus…

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The Spectator @spectator

3 weeks ago

For a country that pumps roughly nine million barrels of oil a day – the third highest of any country in the world – Russia has managed to achieve something genuinely remarkable: it cannot keep its own petrol stations stocked. More than half of its regions are now reporting shortages, the consequence of a Ukrainian drone campaign that has struck with increasing frequency and precision at the refinery infrastructure on which the country’s civilian economy depends. The sometimes hours-long queues that have appeared – even in Moscow, for what may be the first time in the war – carry a symbolic weight that no amount of official reassurance from the Kremlin has managed to dispel. ✍️ Alexander Kolyandr Article | spectator.com/article/can-th… @kolyandr

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

3 weeks ago

Amid the fuel crisis, in the best Soviet tradition, the Kremlin classifies the weekly stats on retail fuel prices broken down by regions and cities.

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

3 weeks ago

The war in Iran gave Russia’s state finances a breathing space. But Ukrainian strikes, a strong ruble and international restrictions prevented it from fully capitalising, and now the window of opportunity is closed. With @amenka for @ru_thebell en.thebell.io/russias-oil-bo…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

here is our with @amenka take on the future of Ru Central Bank's leadership. Would Nabi go? Who is earmarked to replace her?

The Bell @thebell_io

2 months ago

Scoop: Nabiullina’s successor short list Elvira Nabiullina’s third term as Governor of the Bank of Russia expires on June 24, 2027 — and under current law, it will be her last. The president is required to submit a nomination to the lower house of parliament (the State Duma) no

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The Spectator @spectator

2 months ago

Imagine if, in 1941, as we were fighting for our lives against the German menace, a boatload of foreign narcissists rocked up at Dover to make fun of us. Worse, imagine these self-regarding seafarers cheered on our enemies. Imagine they waltzed up to the nearest soldier or copper and barked 'Victory to Germany!' while sporting the smuggest smirk you have ever seen. We'd be annoyed, right? More than annoyed: there would be national fury. Every paper in the land would denounce the preening aliens. Lines of boys in blue would have to hold back angry Brits yelling 'Let me at 'em!'. Well, now you know how the good people of Israel must feel after yet another armada of cranks sailed their way to remonstrate with their soldiers and tell them how demonic they are. ✍️ Brendan O’Neill Article | spectator.com/article/ben-gv…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

Join @amenka and me at @ru_thebell for an hour-long deep dive into what’s really happening in the Russian economy. We’ll assess both Vladimir Putin’s gains and the scale of his problems, followed by Q&A 📅 May 26, 2026 🕕14:30 CET / 8:30 AM EDT. en.thebell.io/oil-at-100-eco…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

Uk did 2 things. It legislated, the long-promised ban on imports of refined products made in third countries from Russian crude. Simultaneously, it carved diesel and jet fuel out of the new ban indefinitely. So much for meaningful sanctions spectator.com/article/the-la…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

Russia’s government acknowledged the bleak reality for the first time — the prospect of at least 2yrs of stagnation amid high interest rates, a strong ruble and cheap oil. It's a picture of degradation, but not a collapse. With @amenka for @ru_thebell en.thebell.io/russias-offici…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

Russian manufacturing growth is fuelled by arms procurement and the military's needs. it wouldn't be easy to reverse painlessly

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

Without a weaker ruble or tax changes, the budget shortfall from before the surging prices will only be made up by the end of the year if prices remain as they are . Given Moscow’s current spending and sanctions impacting the FX rate, Russia’s budget deficit is structural.

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

Rising oil prices benefit oil companies and Russia’s state finances. But a strong ruble and subsidies to producers to support low domestic prices gobble up a big chunk of the windfall.

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

The main economic effect is a blow to investment. Each ruble spent on nets, electronic warfare and perimeter security is money not spent on modernising, when Russia’s economy is already facing high inflation, expensive borrowing, and depleted production en.thebell.io/the-price-of-u…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

In 2025, businesses lobbied unsuccessfully for tax relief to offset those costs, only to be turned down by FinMin. With no access to sophisticated air defence, cos are improvising — physically fortifying their sites with whatever is available, metal cables and mechanical nets.

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

2 months ago

💸 Drone Defence is Tax on Russian Business In 5th year of its war, the Russian military cannot even guarantee the safety of the skies over Moscow, never mind the rest of the country. Ukraine has been striking Russian oil infrastructure 1000s miles from the front lines.

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

3 months ago

Escalation is the cheapest way for legitimising further internal tightening, and redirecting public anger in 🇷🇺 Sensing vulnerability, 🇺🇦 is tempted to intensify attacks, handing even more authority to FSB. As it is, it's a 1-way loop. Me @spectator spectator.com/article/what-p…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

3 months ago

A record low unemployment rate is not, in normal circumstances, cause for alarm. In Russia’s case it signals something closer to a slow-motion emergency. For the first time in its post-Soviet history, Russia has run out of workers. Me for @spectator spectator.com/article/russia…

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

3 months ago

War made Russia’s labor shortage a systemic problem. The dead will not return to life. To reach the previous historical average rate of 4% is only possible through a prolonged economic slowdown leading to layoffs, or an increase in migration. With @amenka for @ru_thebell

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

3 months ago

The number of KIAs from each region correlates to the fall in unemployment. Politically combustable Moscow and the North Caucasus are exempt, also is Chukotka, where socioeconomic factors mean unemployment has always been low, but the hiring of soldiers is high.

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Alexander Kolyandr @kolyandr

3 months ago

Russia's unemployment is at all-times low of 2.1%& In reality, this low level of unemployment should not be a source of pride, but a headache that indicates a serious problem. For the first time in modern history, Russia’s economy faces labor shortages. /MORE/