The Options Seller @letsselloptions

Macro uncertainty is what's driving semis equities right now. More than hyperscaler capex forecasts and other earnings releases. The Fed's policy meeting next week could lead to a hawkish surprise, which is resulting in institutional investors playing things cautiously at the moment. Ongoing US/Iran escalations -> rising oil prices -> prolonged inflation -> potential rate hike. - Brent crude up 35% in three weeks - US 10Y yield set for its biggest weekly increase since early May - Fed funds futures traders now price in a 36% chance of a rate hike decision next week by the Fed (up from just 13% last week) So ultimately, the prolonged war is having a negative second-order impact on semis. Which is why all your favourite names - from $NBIS to $SNDK to $AAOI - are all moving in lockstep regardless of their individual sub-sector or any sort of business fundamentals. Another example is $INTC erasing all it's post-market gains today after reporting solid earnings yesterday. That would not happen under any sort of clear/stable macro conditions. Business fundamentals for the semis will certainly superceed all macro uncertainty in the long-run.

After $GOOG announced capex guidance:

Don’t pay stupid furus selling flows platforms that they vibe coded for a week when you can just use UW for the same data. $MU, $SNDK and $SOXX calls flagged yesterday

Keeping sizing small is what helps me during this period of historic meltdown from momentum and AI stocks. Trading is not about swinging for the fences during chaotic markets. It’s about surviving them.

When you trade in the age of AI and bots, the only thing that's constant is FUD. Wasn't @SemiAnalysis_ one of the big accounts to spread the FUD about delays this time?

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

a week ago

$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: "The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin

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@shortbelly Funny they loaded up on memory names today after these accounts got liquidated…RIP

Hello Robinhood Social 👋

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People on here will talk about protecting their equity curve and lose their minds over a 5% drawdown at the expense of never once holding a 400% runner

5.6 sol with all these based comebacks

Sam Altman @sama

2 weeks ago

there are a lot of benchmarks that suggest 5.6 sol is the best model in the world right now, but the most reliable way to tell is that elon is obsessed with me again

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@sama Saturday drama’s just getting started 🍕🤣

The beauty of taking assignment on NQ is being able to get out in less than 24h with great profit when it retraces a breakdown in globex. This is why it’s important to size appropriately.

Ok looks like AI capex ain't slowing for Meta 😂

Alexandr Wang @alexandr_wang

3 weeks ago

First, Mark was clearly talking about the industry’s progress on agentic capabilities on the whole. But, while we’re on the topic: Our next Muse Spark update is coming soon. Big improvements in coding and agentic capabilities to be more competitive with other leading models.

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🚨 DONALD TRUMP'S PORTFOLIO JUST DROPPED 🚨 The 47th President just filed his massive 847-page 2026 financial disclosure. 💰 ASSETS: $1.4B – $2.1B+ 💵 INCOME: OVER $600 MILLION last year 🔥 ~3,800+ securities transactions from early 2026 Here are his biggest stock positions: 👑 The Leading Holding: $DJT (Trump Media): 114.75 million shares (Transferred to his Revocable Trust) The Heavyweights ($5M – $25M tier): 📈 $TSLA - Tesla 🌐 $META - Meta 🔎 $GOOGL - Alphabet 📦 $AMZN - Amazon 🇺🇸 $SPY - S&P 500 ETF 💻 $IGV - Expanded Tech Sector ETF The Multi-Million Club ($1M – $5M tier): 🍏 $AAPL - Apple ☁️ $MSFT - Microsoft 🧠 $NVDA - Nvidia 🏦 $JPM - JPMorgan Chase 💳 $V & $MA - Visa & Mastercard 🍿 $NFLX - Netflix 🛡️ $PLTR - Palantir 💊 $LLY - Eli Lilly Other revenue: Melania brought in $10.7M from her film license $6M from NFTs $521K from her book deal. Full official report ➡️ oge.box.com/shared/static/…

$INTC Lip-Bu Tan: Bottleneck investor "The investment side, I ways look at where is the bottleneck? What are you trying to solve? For example, I invest in companies like Credo $CRDO or Astera Labs $ALAB, is this interconnect becoming the bottleneck? Because speed becomes more important in interconnect in the cluster, so I think optical becomes very important. Look at Jensen, he invests in almost every company that's photonic."

Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha

4 weeks ago

Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker): "The bottleneck that matters is DRAM/HBM bc memory capacity and bandwidth are foundational to the performance of every AI model...for the DRAM you need in AI servers, there are 3 co's that can make it, this is as close to magic as science can get."

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Also prob time to long hyperscalers now then take profit before ER

CBOE’s put/call ratio was 1.16 on Friday vs 1.07 on 3/30/26. CNN greed fear index is in extreme fear now. Some ppl in my discord are even asking if we’re in a bear market…🥹 Yeah Mon and Tues can still see some crap action but I expect July to be very good until Google’s ER, which will give more tea on AI capex 😳🤫

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EDUCATIONAL POST: 🚨MARKET MECHANICS | THE GAMMA PIN BREAK SPY traded an $16.82 range in a single minute at the close today. $733.40 to $716.58 and back to $729.09. In 60 seconds. 4.7 million shares. Here's exactly what happened and why. THE TWO-DAY PATTERN: Thursday: SPY crossed green-to-red 32 times across the full session. Price oscillated at $734 for 6.5 hours. Net change: $0.02. The gamma pin held. Dealers bought every dip and sold every rip at the pinned strike. The market went nowhere because the mechanics forced it nowhere. Friday: SPY crossed green-to-red 18 times but all 18 were packed into a 2 hour 43 minute window between 11:29 AM and 2:12 PM. Then it broke. The 9th and final green-to-red flip at 2:12 PM was the last time SPY traded above $734.30. It never came back. THE DIAGNOSTIC: Crossings spread evenly across the day = pin holds. Crossings clustered in a tight window = pin is being tested and will break. The break direction matches which side of the pin price spends more time on during the cluster window. Friday, SPY spent more cumulative time below $734 during the cluster. That foreshadowed the breakdown. THE BREAKDOWN SEQUENCE: 2:12 PM: Final flip. SPY drops below $734.30 permanently. 2:12 to 3:58 PM: Slow drift from $734 to $733. Dealers who had been buying at the pin start selling as delta hedges flip from the positive side to the negative side of the strike. 3:59 PM: The cascade. THE 3:59 PM FLASH: One minute. One candle. Everything breaks. Open: $733.40 Low: $716.58 Close: $729.09 Range: $16.82 Volume: 4.7 million shares (8.1x the prior minute's 577K) For context, a normal 1-minute SPY range is $0.20 to $0.50. A CPI surprise or Fed announcement produces $3-5. Today's closing minute produced $16.82. Three to four times what a major economic event generates. THE MECHANIC: This is a closing-cross gamma cascade. Here's the sequence: First: SPY lost the $734 gamma pin at 2:12 PM. Dealers had been net-long at the pin level all day, buying dips and selling rips to stay delta-neutral. Once the pin broke to the downside, their positioning flipped. Long delta became a liability. They started selling. Second: The MOC (market-on-close) imbalance feed published a SELL imbalance. Quarter-end rebalancing flow from pension funds compounded with the dealer selling. The passive funds needed to sell SPY at the close. The dealers needed to sell SPY to stay hedged. Both sellers arrived in the same 60-second window. Third: 0DTE put gamma cascaded. As price dropped through $730, $725, $720, each strike's put gamma went deep in-the-money. Dealers short those puts had to sell shares to hedge. Each dollar lower forced more selling. The gamma feedback loop accelerated. Fourth: At $716.58, institutional bids stepped in. The real buyers were waiting at $716-$720. The snap-back from $716 to $729 happened in seconds. The flash lasted less than 30 seconds before the buy orders absorbed it. THE CLOSING PRICES: The official NYSE closing auction printed $731.13. That's the price-matched auction result, not the intraday low. Financial sites will show different numbers depending on which close they use. The flash to $716 was an intra-auction event that resolved before the official match. WHO MADE MONEY: Anyone holding 0DTE $720 puts bought for pennies saw them briefly hit $3.42 of intrinsic value ($720 minus $716.58) during the flash. A $0.05 lottery ticket briefly worth $342 per contract. The same mechanic as the MRVL $310 put we documented last week. The pattern repeats: extreme gamma concentration at expiration creates violent closing-minute moves that reward positioning at strikes nobody expects to get hit. THE FRAMEWORK: We now have three documented closing-auction patterns: 1. Gamma Pin Hold: 30+ crossings spread across full session. Closes flat. The pin wins. Dealers suppress all movement. (Thursday June 25) 2. Gamma Pin Break: 15-20 crossings clustered in a tight window, then directional move. The pin loses. Dealers switch from suppressing to amplifying. (Friday June 26) 3. Inclusion Arb Flush: Arb inventory exceeds passive demand at the MOC. Forced selling cascades through the closing cross. (MRVL June 18) All three are driven by the same underlying mechanic: dealer gamma positioning at concentrated strikes creates forced buying or selling at the close. The direction and magnitude depend on the positioning imbalance and the MOC flow. The data tells you the setup. The close resolves it. $SPY $QQQ $IWM