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We need more open conversations between tradfi fundamentalists and modern crypto traders. Too often I see one side completely dismissing the other. Sometimes traders dismiss the relevance of fundamentals, sometimes fundamentalists hate on technical analysis. Often they share the same underlying perspective, just from an other angle. There is actually a lot to learn from each other.
Markets adapt faster than traders do.
Every cycle brings in a new group of participants who repeat the same mistakes as the last one. That‘s why some risk premia survive for decades despite being widely known.
Knowledge spreads. Behavior rarely does.
One of the things that helped me to not lose my mind when studying markets all day:
find yourself some completely unrelated and joyful hobbies. Whenever you have a bad trading day, take a step back and feed your energy into habits that restore your peace of mind.
Most traders spend their time searching for hidden inefficiencies.
The better question is whether the edge exists because nobody has found it yet, or because most people simply cannot or will not take the other side.
The second type is often far more durable.
One of my recent reads: The All-Weather Trader by Tom Basso.
Most traders obsess over entries.
Basso focuses on what happens after the entry:
How much do you size?
Can the system still work when one market stops working?
Rain or shine is not a mindset.
It’s system design.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY is approaching levels not seen since 1986.
Japan continues to warn about excessive FX moves, but the wide Fed-BoJ rate differential still favors USD strength.
Intervention may slow the move.
A trend reversal likely requires lower US yields. Interesting situation
One of the biggest traps in trading is confusing being right once with having an edge.
A beginner can enter a random trade, catch a move, make money, and suddenly think they understand the markets.
One profitable trade doesn’t mean you have a system.
Without a repeatable process, risk management, and data behind your decisions, you’re not trading.
You’re just gambling with better vocabulary.
Process > outcome
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