so far at least, i'm pretty sure AI has been net job-creating.
this was not what i expected--although i was much less pessimistic than others, i thought by this level of capability we'd have seen some impact.
it is possible this direction keeps going!
DeepSeek is the GOAT. 🐳
They just published DSpark, a new speculative decoding method that boosts throughput by 51% to 400%.
They also open-sourced DeepSpec, the training framework behind it.
This is the real open AI.
DeepSeek just open-sources another piece of their training stack.
DeepSpec: a full-stack codebase for training and evaluating speculative decoding models
github.com/deepseek-ai/De…
For people who don’t have a clear sense of the future they want, AI is just another mechanism of control
But in the hands of someone with agency, AI is the breaker of chains, something that lets you do things no humans can do alone.
AI can be a liberator if you choose agency.
kinda ridiculous how much of modern life now runs through one pocket computer, which now has intelligence built right into it.
comms. relationships. work. money. maps. photos. rent. rides. food. dating. identity. all of it mediated through one small slab of glass.
if you lose your phone for even few hours you basically become a medieval peasant at this point.
The next big trade is infrastructure / RL environments that enable companies to turn their institutional knowledge / processes into continuously improving learning loops that they can own.
The next generation of young people who change the world will almost certainly be the people who are most adept at making long-running multi-stage multi-team agent tasks work extremely well, and at high volume and across every part of their personal and work lives.
It’s not so simple, but this is somewhat correct. The real truth is that admissions is more qualitative and based on if your admissions officer likes you.
I will say, though, that agents made this process much easier for me. I was basically able to automate extracurriculars and
once Fable becomes available again, I'm not gonna sleep
instead, I will create roadmaps and long-term plans for:
> all areas of my life
> all startup ideas I have
> all potential features for all of my softwares
> long-term forecasts for geopolitical events
> personalized SWE courses
> deep summaries of all books I wanna read
> in-depth analysis of my business data
and any other ideas I'll get.
this is the only way to escape the permanent underclass.
When I was a kid I didn't realize, as is now obvious, that AGI would be a wide band rather than a sharp finish line. But if you'd shown me a version of ChatGPT that had been told to act like a human, I'd definitely have said that AI had been achieved.
SpaceX is the most overhyped IPO of the decade and it will end exactly the way every overhyped IPO ends. Facebook IPO’d at $38 and traded under that for 15 months. Uber IPO’d at $45 and is still below that adjusted seven years later for a while. WeWork tried at $47 billion and ended at zero. Robinhood IPO’d at $38, hit $85, then $7. Coinbase IPO’d at $381 and was at $40 two years later. Rivian IPO’d at a $100 billion valuation with no meaningful revenue and gave back 90%. Beyond Meat. Peloton. Lyft. DoorDash. Bird. Each one a “generational company” the day it priced.
Each one a wealth destruction event for retail within 18 months. The pattern is not a coincidence. Hype IPOs are designed to transfer wealth from the people buying the story to the people who built the story. The bankers get paid. The early employees get out. The VCs get a markup they can show their LPs. The retail investor gets the bag. SpaceX is a great company. That has nothing to do with whether it’s a great stock at IPO. Greatness was already priced in five funding rounds ago. You are not getting in early. You are buying the exit. The only IPO worth chasing is the one nobody is talking about. Those don’t exist anymore because every IPO is marketed like a movie release. So the answer is: don’t chase. Wait two years. Buy it down 70% when the lockup unwinds and the narrative breaks. Or don’t buy it at all and put the money somewhere the bankers haven’t already extracted the alpha. Hype is not an asset class. It’s a tax.
You can only measure how much you want something by what you’re willing to give up to get it.
And it turns out, most people want feeling smart, feeling comfortable, and feeling accepted more than winning.
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