Michael Sami EN⚛☭ @mike4evolution

China’s economy is built on an extraordinary savings surplus: China’s gross national savings rate stands at ~43% of GDP, the highest among the world’s largest economic blocs. This is more than double the US' rate of ~18%. China’s savings rate has remained above 40% for nearly the entire century while the US has not exceeded 20% over the same period. Meanwhile, Japan’s savings rate is ~32% of GDP, while the Eurozone’s is ~24%, both well below China. A high savings rate provides a larger pool of domestic capital that can be used to finance investment, expand manufacturing capacity, and strengthen its industrial base. China’s savings surplus is a powerful source of investment capacity.

BREKAING: China now accounts for ~28% of global manufacturing, more than any other country or economic bloc. This percentage has more than tripled since 2004. By comparison, US factories account for ~17% of global manufacturing value added, or 11 percentage points less than China. In 2004, the US proportion stood at ~22%, more than double China's. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy represents ~15% of world manufacturing, while Japan accounts for just ~5%. China has become a critical component of global manufacturing.

The bond market is out of control. The US 30Y Note Yield is now up to 5.27%, its highest level since June 2007. This officially marks a +450 basis point rally since the low seen in 2020. At the current pace, we are on track to see US 30Y mortgage rates exceed 7.50% by year-end. And to top it all off, Fed Chair Warsh is now adamant that the market should operate independently, without Fed guidance. Even without rate hikes or Fed guidance, the market is sending rates higher; operating exactly how Fed Chair Warsh wants it to operate. The bond market will soon be the most talked about component of global capital markets. This simply is not sustainable.

TOMORROW'S BOJ DECISION COULD WIPE OUT BILLIONS FROM GLOBAL MARKETS. Here's why: The Fed's rate sits at 3.5-3.75% and the BOJ's sits at just 1%. That gap is why the yen carry trade exists in the first place, borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding dollar assets. Morgan Stanley estimates roughly $500 billion in yen-funded carry positions are still outstanding. Japan's unemployment data comes out tomorrow too, expected at 2.5%. If it comes in below that, it gives the BOJ room to hike more aggressively in its decision the same day. If it comes in as expected or higher, the BOJ has less reason to surprise anyone. A bigger hike narrows that rate gap fast. That's the exact trigger that caused August 2024's carry trade unwind, when the Nikkei crashed 12.4% in a single session, its worst day since 1987, erasing about $790 billion. If the BOJ hikes but sounds cautious instead, none of that pressure builds, and today's yen strength likely fades back to where it started. This matters more than yesterday's FOMC decision.

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Bull Theory @BullTheoryio

a day ago

BANK OF JAPAN MIGHT HAVE INTERVENED IN THE CURRENCY MARKET. USD/JPY pair dropped from 163.6 to 159.5 in the last 6 hours, a 2.5% move. This type of move doesn't happen without central bank intervention. The BOJ makes its rate decision tomorrow. If this drop is real

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Yesterday, Trump promised to “beat the fucking shit” out of Iran. Today, the IRGC struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan's Azraq, completely destroying three F-35s, and heavily damaging three more. The F-35 is the most expensive weapons programme in history, with each aircraft running to over $80 million. They’re being destroyed on the ground by a domestically-produced Iranian missile costing a tiny fraction of that. If anyone’s having the “fucking shit” beaten out of them, it’s the US taxpayer.

It’s been a rough month for Elon Musk, if there is such a thing for the world’s richest man. SpaceX and Tesla have erased a cumulative $1.5 trillion in market cap since mid-June, after an almost 50% sell-off in SpaceX since its high and an 18% drop in Tesla since earnings last week. More details: cnb.cx/4fGeJw4

So China’s basic response is: If the United States were still confident in its own competitiveness, it would not need to turn every Chinese civilian project into a national security emergency. A port becomes a threat. A railway becomes a threat. A telecom network becomes a threat. Even an undersea cable becomes a weapon. China builds infrastructure. Washington builds panic around it. America no longer asks whether a Chinese project works. It asks how quickly it can be killed before the world notices it works better. When an empire can no longer lead, it tries to cripple those who can.

SOUTH KOREAN MARKET IS CRASHING SO MUCH THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD TO LAUNCH A SUICIDE PREVENTION HOTLINE. KOSPI crashed -20% over the last 2 trading days. Korean retail investors borrowed heavily on margin loans and single-stock leveraged ETFs to chase this year's rally, and now that same leverage is wiping them out just as fast on the way down. SK Hynix's single-stock leveraged ETF crashed 32% today alone. Individual investors sold over 2 trillion won worth of shares in panic today, trying to get out before losses grew worse. Forced liquidations from these leveraged bets have wiped out 2.3 trillion won over the past two and a half months, retail accounts getting automatically sold out once losses passed what their loans could cover. That's exactly why the Financial Services Commission is now launching a nationwide debt-counseling hotline in October, officially part of an "Economic Crisis Family Suicide Prevention Plan," a direct response to the debt crisis this leverage created. KOSPI has now dropped from the world's 6th largest stock market to 11th largest in just a month. 9 circuit breakers have hit this year alone, out of only 15 in the exchange's entire 26-year history. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis took KOSPI down 57%, but that happened in 371 days. The Fed rate hike and COVID crash took it down 44% over 784 days. This crash has already hit 43% in just 40 days.

The Economist doing the meme: China is protecting the environment "but at what cost?" 🤦‍♂️

The Economist @TheEconomist

4 days ago

The Chinese Communist Party, once famous for pillaging from the natural world, has set to protecting parts of it. But the country’s “eco-authoritarian” approach deserves scrutiny bit.ly/4x4lWge Photo: Getty Images

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China has started mass producing immersion DUV lithography machines, these machines are capable of making semiconductors down to the 5nm node, after multi-patterning. With this machine mastered, China can make everything under the sun with the exception of the EUV lithography machine, but that is coming soon, sooner than most people would expect. All the subsystems for EUV lithography machines are done, a working prototype is running since late 2025. Total industrial and supply chain independence is almost here. After this, we won't need to worry about any forms of sanctions or embargos.

One of the strangest patterns in US-China discourse: lean favourable toward China, and you're accused of being paid by the Chinese government. Yet people who lean favourable toward the US — and who *actually* work for the US government — face no conflict-of-interest scrutiny.

Let's remind ourselves of what's comimg #XRP @yutokanzakireal

The measures being prepared by the Bank of Japan will affect the lives of billions of people. To the people of the Western countries, I offer my deepest apologies. This is not a personal matter. May God's blessings be upon you!!

Yuto 🇯🇵 @yutokanzakireal

4 weeks ago

日本銀行が準備している措置は、数十億の人々の生活に影響を与えるでしょう。 西側諸国の皆様、深くお詫び申し上げます。 これは個人的な問題ではありません。 神のご加護がありますように。

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🚨 $1.3 TRILLION has been wiped out from US stocks as Trump reportedly considers a massive attack on Iran.

BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Over ¥29,700,000,000,000 ($190 BILLION) has been wiped out from the Japanese stocks as the NIKKEI fell -2.7% following Japan's inflation data.

Bull Theory @BullTheoryio

a week ago

BREAKING: 🇯🇵Japan's core inflation came in at 1.6% YoY in June. Expectations: 1.6% Below the BOJ's 2% target for a fifth straight month.

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BREAKING: $TSLA is down 19% this week, its largest weekly decline since March 2020.

Still, I don't think China's state or the Chinese AI startups have committed any theft. Americans, as always, think other nations are just as thieves and criminals as they are. It's like thinking modern China was built on the genocide on the native Chinese, just because US was!

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

a week ago

What China is doing/has done is exactly what Alexander Hamilton & the US' state-sponsored theft did vis a vis British trade secrets 👇 Not saying it's right, just saying "Stop being naive, start paying attention to history, end post-71 USD reserve status to stop this, & compete"

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Western journalists and politicians are forever slandering China over forced labour in Xinjiang's cotton production. The reality is that this back-breaking work is being performed by machines. Xinjiang's mechanisation rate for cultivation and harvesting is above 97 percent, among the highest in the world. China is the leading innovator in robotic technology, and is deploying it to make human life better.

While the US spend unlimited amounts of money on wars, these are the next generation of school blackboards in China🇨🇳.

China's Long March 3B struck by lightning during ascent.

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