Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua

6 AI themes — Leadership moat 🧵 📊 Data moat: $PLTR $SNOW $NOW ☁️ Neocloud dip: $NBIS $CRWV $CIFR $IREN $ORCL 🧠 Memory: $MU SKHynix (ADR 7/10) $LRCX $BESI 🇺🇸 State AI: $AVGO $KTOS $AVAV $LHX $RKLB 🤖 Physical AI: $AMBA $NVDA $OUST $VPG $SYM ⚡ Capex floor: $VRT $TSM $GEV $ETN $CEG Power + sensing = least crowded trades. NFA

Meta Compute selloff = narrative shock, not demand shock. Meta pays neoclouds billions — "excess capacity" is a timing gap, not saturation. Ranked dip candidates by risk/reward 🧵👇 Prime (thesis intact or improved) 1. $MU — -10% on nothing, HBM sold out w/ LTAs 2. $MRVL — a 4th cloud = MORE XPU + optics demand 3. $AVGO — Meta Compute means more MTIA volume 4. SK Hynix — 58% HBM share, ADR lists Jul 10 5. $TSM — every scenario routes through its fabs 6. $VRT — more compute = more power + cooling 7. $ASML — doesn't care who rents the GPUs — Strong (epicenter, real supply tightness) 8. $LITE — -10% while reportedly sold out ~2yrs 9. $COHR — so tight it buys parts from rivals 10. $GLW — conservative optics-shortage proxy 11. $TER — HBM/SLT test intensity keeps rising 12. $FN — manufacturing arm of the optics ramp 13. $BESI — hybrid bonding tollgate, now cheaper 14. $ALAB — connectivity/rack grows in every scenario — Speculative (size) 15. $ONTO — HBM inspection pull-through 16. $AAOI — -17%, huge targets, unproven + dilution history 17. $CRWV — overreaction, but Meta-as-rival is real 18. $IREN — power-secured sites, financing risk 19. $NBIS — deepest dip, highest customer concentration 20. $AEHR — -18% flush, lottery ticket Ranks 1–7 win even if the Meta report is fully true. NFA — do your own DD.

@MMatters22596 @grok .. summarise the list

Core Thesis: an "era of abundance"

💾 Deutsche Bank: DRAM supply deficit every year to 2030. The culprit? HBM uses 3x the wafer area per bit — and it's going from 18% → 35% of capacity. Tightens the whole market at once. $MU – only US-listed pure play $NVDA – the demand anchor $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC – equipment wins regardless $TSM – packaging bottleneck Memory is the new oil. 🛢️ #DRAM #HBM #Semiconductors #Investing

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@SchwartzFinance @grok summarize the list of stocks

@MMatters22596 @grok summarize

Launch is the moat (80% of mass to orbit), Starlink is the cash machine (63% EBITDA margins), Starship is the option, xAI is the speculation. At 74x 2027 EBITDA with a 4% float and Musk holding total control, you're paying upfront for all four. $SPCX

@MMatters22596 @grok summarize the list with drawdowns from ATH

"🛰️ $ASTS launch cadence takes a hit: Blue Origin's New Glenn exploded during static fire at LC-36 (May 28), following the NG-3 upper-stage failure that lost BlueBird 7 in April. New Glenn is now out for 2026. ASTS falls back on Falcon 9 (3 sats/launch vs 8), putting the 45-60 sat year-end target in serious doubt. Slip to 2027 likely. $ASTS"

🇪🇺 European Photonics & Semis — Ranked by Risk/Reward 1. $XFAB — ~€9 The new thesis. Specialty foundry at the crossroads of silicon photonics, SiC/GaN and MEMS. Building InP-on-SOI platform for AI optical interconnects. Auto drag = entry window. Production ramp 2027. Buy zone: €8.50–9.50 2. $SOI — ~€150 Near-monopoly on SOI substrates. Every silicon photonics chip needs Soitec wafers. Structural moat is unmatched. Has run hard — wait for it to come to you. Buy zone: €120–140 3. $RPI — ~700p Record 2025 revenue, 47% chip sales surge. Agentic AI edge compute demand is the secular tailwind. Most liquid name in the group. Buy zone: 580–630p 4. $LPK — ~€24 Glass core substrates near-monopoly. Advanced packaging demand driven by AI chiplet architecture. Pulled back from highs — thesis intact. Buy zone: €20–22 5. $IQE — ~50p Epiwafer supplier to the photonics stack. Thesis validated by $MTSI investment. Big move already done — add on weakness only. Buy zone: 40–45p 6. $ALRIB — ~€15 MBE systems duopoly. Quantum + photonics equipment demand driver. Already up massively from thesis entry — patience needed. Buy zone: €12–13 7. $SIVE — ~SEK 70 CPO laser chokepoint. Thesis fully played ($4→$71). Pipeline up 64% YoY. Hard to chase — hold existing, trim into strength. Buy zone: SEK 55–60 Not financial advice. Small/micro-cap European names — size positions accordingly

🚀 $SPCX S-1 JUST DROPPED — Tonight. History. The Deal 💰 Raising up to $75B | Val: $1.75T–$2T+ 📍 Nasdaq | Ticker: $SPCX | Jun 12 listing 🏦 21 banks | 30% retail allocation (3x normal) Financials (First Ever Public Look) 📊 Q1 rev: $4.69B (+15% YoY) 📊 2025 rev: ~$16B | Starlink: $11.4B 📊 Starlink op profit: $4.4B 💚 📊 2025 net loss: $4.94B (xAI capex) 📊 2025 capex: $20.7B (5x prior year) 📊 2026 EBITDA target: $14B What You're Actually Buying 🛸 World's #1 rocket company 📡 10M Starlink subscribers (growing to 16.8M by EOY) 🤖 xAI + Grok + Orbital AI Data Centers 🛡️ NASA + DoD contracts Control 👑 Musk controls 85% of votes 🗳️ Public gets Class A — economic stake, zero governance Timeline May 20 → S-1 public ✅ Jun 4–8 → Roadshow Jun 11 → Pricing Jun 12 → First trade The Risk 110x revenue multiple. Profitability not yet proven at scale. You're betting on 2030+, not 2026. *Not financial advice. Read the S-1.* \#SPCX #SpaceX #IPO #Starlink #xAI #SPCXIPO

x.com/i/status/20571…

Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay

2 months ago

$NVDA delivered 😏 • Revenue $81.6B vs Est. $79.2B • EPS $1.85 vs Est. $1.78 • Data Center $75.2B vs Est. $73.5B • Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75% Q2 Guidance • Revenue $90.6B vs Est. $87.2B • Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75%

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🚀 AI/Space IPO Watch 2026 🤖 $Anthropic ~$615/sh | $900B val | 20x fwd rev — 30x revenue growth in 2yrs, 70%+ margins, $30B pre-IPO round closed ⭐ 🌍 $OpenAI ~$688/sh | $852B val | 34x rev — $2B+/mo revenue but burning $27B/yr on infra + ongoing Musk trial ⚠️ 🛸 $SpaceX ~$647/sh | $1.75T val | 112x trailing rev — launch monopoly + 10M Starlink users, Wall Street target for June 👀 *All private/secondary market data. Not financial advice.* #IPO2026 #SpaceX #OpenAI #Anthropic #SPCX

Post-IPO ranking for quality growth + risk/reward: 1. $SpaceX — Starlink cash cow, proven execution, real moat 2. $Anthropic — Efficient enterprise AI, faster profitability path 3. $OpenAI — Explosive growth but highest burn & competition risk SpaceX clearest edge in sustainable quality. AI bets higher beta.

@grok @Venu_7_ Iist all of them

@Venu_7_ @grok summarise the stocks

Goldman Sachs just mapped the CPO supply chain 🗺️ Optical networking: $15B → $154B by 2028 CPO alone = $91B. That's a 9x TAM expansion. The full stack of winners: 🔴 Platform (own both ecosystems): $NVDA — Quantum-X CPO switch, 576 GPUs/rack $AVGO — Davisson CPO switch, already in production 🔵 Laser Chokepoint (cannot be bypassed): $LITE — $2B NVDA investment, $30 EPS target 2028 $COHR — 4x book-to-bill, InP fab building $SIVE — independent Tier 1, ~$130M cap, not yet priced 🤯 🟡 Architecture & Networking: $MRVL — owns CPO photonic fabric via Celestial AI $CIEN — inter-DC backbone, $7B backlog, 33% growth 🟢 Physical Infrastructure: $GLW — ONLY named fiber supplier in GS exhibit $6B Meta deal + $11B revenue target by 2028 🔧 Assembly: $HNHPF — Foxconn assembles NVDA's CPO rack systems $AAOI — LPO bridge tech, +365% YTD Two chokepoints nothing can bypass: Lasers 👉 $LITE $COHR $SIVE Fiber 👉 $GLW The Goldman Sachs map just told you where to look 📊🔥

RPO & Backlog = the only metric that cannot be faked 📊 Contracted. Non-cancellable. Already locked in. The league table: 🥇 $MSFT — $627B RPO, 2.2 years of revenue locked 🥈 $ORCL — $523B RPO, +438% YoY, $300B OpenAI deal 🥉 $GEV — $163B backlog, +71% organic, 4+ years locked $CRM — $72B RPO, Agentforce accelerating $CAT — $62.7B backlog, +79% YoY, decoupled from cycle $ETN — 11 YEARS of data centre backlog 🤯 $NOW — $27.7B RPO, AI ACV +130% $FIX — $11.9B backlog, doubled in 12 months $PLTR — FCF doubling, US commercial +137% $PWR — $2.4T addressable, 5-10yr grid contracts The insight: When backlog grows faster than revenue Future growth is ACCELERATING not slowing That gap = the most bullish signal in investing 🔥 These aren't estimates. They're obligations. 📋"

@MarketMatrixs @grok summarise the stocks mentioned