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🏈 TNF Best Bet
🔴 George Kittle O22.5 Yards Longest Reception
The 49ers have injuries piling up and are going to be more and more reliant on George Kittle to keep this offense moving. He is their top receiving option and should get solid targets all night.
I really like this line for longest reception. We know Kittle is a YAC machine (19th overall in NFL) and he's been cruising over the 22.5 yards needed tonight consistently. He's cashed this in 6 of his last 7, the only miss coming in the heavy snow game against the Bills... He hasn't just covered it either, in 5 of those games he had longest receptions of 30+ yards and the other went for 29.
Kittle thrives against zone coverage, which the Rams play 8th most in the league. He leads all Tight Ends in yards per route run vs zone which makes this a great spot for a guy who averages 14.3 yards per reception this season. That's the 23rd longest average in the whole league, and No.1 for his position.
His latest game was his best of the season catching 6 passes for 151 yards against the Bears. In that outing he'd have cashed this longest reception line three times over. Back in San Francisco tonight in a must win Divisional game I think he goes huge again and grabs at least one big catch.
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🏀 NBA Best Bet (11/20/24)
🔴 Zach LaVine Over 20.5 Points
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Posted in my free Telegram this morning. I’m ok with taking this at over 21.5.
I like this spot to attack LaVine in what should be one of the better game environments on the slate, with a 237.5 point total set.
This Bucks team is old and slow outside of Giannis, and it has really shown up in their defense this season, as they have been awful in transition, giving up the 7th-most transition points per game. This is perfect for Lavine, who scores 28% of his points in transition as his dominant play type.
He can be a bit matchup dependant, but against teams with bottom 10 transition defense this season, he is over this line in 4/4 and averaging 25.8 points.
The Bulls have also not had the easiest schedule overall, as they’ve only played 5 teams within the bottom 18 in defensive rating. He has fared well in these games, covering in 4/5 averaging 24.4 points, including 25 against the Bucks last game.
LaVine has had a few stinkers this season with 11 vs Orlando (3rd ranked defense), 8 vs Cavs (8th ranked defense) and 15 vs Rockets (2nd ranked defense). Outside of those games, he has covered this line in 8/9 and just missed with 18 in the other.
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