๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ฅ @obront
in pursuit of curiosity, equanimity and golf balls Toronto, ON + Austin, TX Joined June 2009-
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#Warsh is a major turning point for #Fed policy @marvinjbarth @ThematicMarkets explains it perfectly thematicmarkets.substack.com/p/the-velvet-gโฆ
Canary in the coal mine? Partners Group $PGHN just gated redemptions on its $8.6 billion evergreen fund. The Swiss firm โ one of Europe's largest alternative asset managers, with $185B AUM across private equity, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and royalties โ limited withdrawals from its Global Value SICAV to 5% of NAV per quarter. The reason: redemption requests surged to 9.8% in Q2. Nearly double the cap. The stock dropped 13% in Zurich. Biggest intraday loss in six years. Down 27% YTD. The disturbing detail The fund already held 15% of NAV in liquidity. Plus an undrawn credit facility worth another 15% of fund size. 30% of NAV available in cash. And they still gated. Why? Because to honor full redemptions you'd have to dump underlying private assets into a forced timeline. That means fire-sale prices, marking down the entire portfolio, and destroying value for the investors who stayed. The board chose to protect the long-term holders over the ones at the exit. This isn't isolated In recent months, the same playbook has unfolded across the industry: โ Apollo capped redemptions โ KKR capped redemptions โ BlackRock capped redemptions โ Blue Owl capped redemptions The biggest names in alternatives are all doing the same thing. The anxiety started in private credit and is now spilling into private equity, real estate, and infrastructure. The retail angle Partners Group disclosed that private wealth clients โ "typically far more skittish than institutional investors" โ represent about a fifth of total platform AUM. A particularly large share of Global Value's investor base. For 15 years, retail was sold the dream: returns of public equity, with the illusion of liquidity, in a vehicle anyone could access. Quarterly redemptions, evergreen structure, no lockups. Today they learned that quarterly liquidity is not a right. It's a privilege the manager can revoke when too many people ask at the same time. The Hotel California problem The illiquidity premium means exactly what it says. You accept being illiquid in exchange for higher returns. Most of the time nobody notices, because nobody wants out. When everyone wants out at once, the premium gets paid in real time. You can check in any time you like. But you can never leave.
โPredicting rain doesnโt count. Building arks does.โ โ Warren Buffett
if you're under 50 and you stay healthy, i think you will live to 150 years old minimum the medical singularity is happening. just in the past 2 months alone: > revmed's pancreatic cancer drug (daraxonrasib) doubled survival in the deadliest cancer there is, 13.2 months vs 6.7 on chemo. it got a standing ovation from 40k+ doctors at the world's biggest cancer conference > a one-time gene editing infusion (verve-102) permanently switched off the gene that drives bad cholesterol and cut it up to 62% from a single dose. one and done, no daily pill for life > a lung cancer pill (lorlatinib) kept 60% of patients with spread cancer progression-free at 5 years. the longest anyone has ever held back a metastatic solid tumor with a single drug > mayo built an ai that catches pancreatic cancer on routine ct scans up to 3 years before doctors can. it spotted 73% of the earliest cases vs 39% for human radiologists > lilly's new weight loss drug (retatrutide) hit up to 30% body weight loss in its big phase 3 trial, and along the way it cut knee arthritis pain by 76% and dropped bad cholesterol about 20% and we are still just at the beginning of the exponential call me crazy but i'm a believer when Demis hassabis says we will cure all disease in the next 10 years
a standing ovation for daraxonrasib at asco. over 40k oncologists, entrepreneurs, investors, and patient advocates together celebrating revmed's breakthru in the fight against pancreatic cancer. u never forget these moments. it's what innovation is all about.
The Arab Word is Watching a Different War: Three reasons why it has been difficult to understand the Arab position: The first is the Arab relationship with Iran. From the vantage point of Brussels or London, Iran presents itself as a resistance movement with a grievance against American hegemony and Israeli occupation, and this presentation maps comfortably onto familiar Western anticolonial frameworks. What it does not map onto is the lived experience of Arab populations in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, and across the Gulf. In those countries, Iran's presence meant Hezbollah holding the Lebanese state hostage to Tehran's decisions, thirty-five armed factions in Iraq drawing salaries from Iranian funds channeled through the Iraqi national treasury, and Houthi commanders answering to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps while firing on Arab civilians from Yemeni soil. Freedom is not the word any serious Arab observer would use for what Iran brought. Indeed, the Arab world's quarrel with Iran runs far deeper than American bases or Israeli airstrikes. What drives it is the systematic subversion of Arab sovereignty by a foreign power that uses the language of Islamic solidarity as cover for an imperial project conducted through proxies. The second dimension is the proxy question itself, where Western analysis fails most comprehensively. Iran goes far beyond supporting armed groups. Parallel state structures get built inside Arab countries, financial systems get captured, and political figures get installed who owe their existence and survival entirely to Tehran. The Iranians who have administered this project understand it as the export of a revolution, but what Arab populations have experienced is closer to a colonial occupation conducted through intermediaries, and as of now, theyโre not mourning the Islamic Republic. When Westerners treat these proxy networks as instruments of legitimate resistance rather than as mechanisms of subjugation, they endorse an imperial project while believing themselves to be opposing one, and as a matter of fact, make themselves the legitimizing force behind Iranโs war against the Arab world. The third dimension is the most counterintuitive for a Western audience, and it is the one most consequential for how the current war is understood and misunderstood. For Arab nationalists, including secular nationalists and even those with deep reservations about Israeli policy, Iran represents a greater and more immediate threat than Israel does. This is a position that Western media are structurally ill-equipped to render intelligible, because Western discourse on the Middle East has been organized for decades around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the primary axis of regional injustice. The result is that when Western governments and Western publics take strong positions against Israelโs actions against Iranโs operations, they believe themselves to be standing with the Arab world. In reality, they are advancing a position that the Arab world does not share and has not asked for, while ignoring the threat that Arab governments and Arab populations actually live with. The rhetorical use of Israel as a perpetual alibi for Iranian aggression has been one of the Islamic Republicโs most durable tools, and Western opinion has served as the unwitting amplifier of that tool across the entire duration of the Islamic Republicโs existence. open.substack.com/pub/zinebribouโฆ
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand has more x.com/i/status/20574โฆ
This is an extraordinary document written by the research arm of China's spy agency (the powerful MSS, basically the CIA and the FBI all wrapped in one) that absolutely zero media has picked up on. As far as I can see, I'm the first person to write about it even though it was
COEXIST rather than CONFRONT ! ๐จ๐ณ๐บ๐ธ๐ ... this could be a tidal change in geopolitics Chinaโs Ministry of State Security research arm is an unusually authoritative window into Beijingโs view of U.S.โChina ties. signals near-official thinking China believes the worst phase of bilateral deterioration is over and seeks managed coexistence with the US. a strategic shift toward stabilization ... analytical and pragmatic, balancing realism about competition with a preference for predictable relations ... expect policies favoring controlled engagement, risk management, and institutional channels to prevent escalation cn.chinadiplomacy.org.cn/2026-05/13/conโฆ
Great piece from Rabobank's @TheMichaelEvery on the coming bifurcation. Anyone who mentions COMECON is sure to get my attention: media.rabobank.com/asset/26672cb3โฆ?
WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto? Not AI stocks. Not real estate. What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with? Bonds. 200 years of rate cycles say the same thing: Every peak lasts 56โ67 years. The 1981 top was 14% yields. The 2020 bottom was 0%. 39 years of falling rates just ended. What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle โ upward? Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world. Their entire career happened inside the bull. The unwind has barely started. And no one is talking about it.
Case in point. I'm short gold today and have been since early March. Yes, I'm a gold perma bull. Right now I'm short โ exactly like Billy Ray would be โ because Turkey is showing you what's already happening. The Turkish central bank has sold roughly 120 tonnesย of gold to defendย the Lira and fund energy imports.ย Bernard Dahdahย was explicit in April: central banks are now selling gold "to defend their currency and/or to fund energy purchases." bullionvault.com/gold-news/goldโฆ When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold's biggest bid disappears. Once central banks turn dovish after the energy crisis hits growth, the trade resets and I'm back long. Even gold bulls have to read the tape. Gold 4,000 then 10,000. 9/10
What Japan needs to do is very clear. They need to sell FX reserves for yen, and use that yen to absorb the long-end. This solves their currency and bond/supply demand problems. It is what they will ultimately do. It makes everything harder for the US.
best side bet on hormuz issue without the oil vol $SB sugar futures or $CANE
This is an extraordinary document written by the research arm of China's spy agency (the powerful MSS, basically the CIA and the FBI all wrapped in one) that absolutely zero media has picked up on. As far as I can see, I'm the first person to write about it even though it was
Whether or not Europe stands with us, whether or not your journalists do their jobs, whether or not your politicians demonstrate the courage to act, I will fight for my people and my country.
@TMTLongShort if hormuz doesn't open, doesn't trump need carney more to secure north american energy flows?
@TMTLongShort why has trump not seized iranian crude tankers yet?
the only path that doesn't lead to humanitarian disaster @vtchakarova
Josh Young @JoshYoung
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89 Followers 2K Following Sweet heart with a little sass ๐ | Good vibes only โจ | Say hi, I donโt biteโฆ unless you want me to ๐
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171 Followers 675 Following Relationship Alchemist | Deals. Capital. Access. Consulting | Web3, Capital Markets & IR | Board @Cloud3Ventures BD @ibcgroupio | Member @introductioncom
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EL che๐ธ๏ธ๐ณ @i__elche
1K Followers 6K Following | The way of the Degen ๐ โข Extremely bullish on all things ๐ธ๏ธ.๐ณ โข building |
ๆ่ณใชใใงใ็ธ... @Irhordar823213
35 Followers 2K Following ใๅฎๅ จ็กๆใ 25ๅนดใฎๆ ชๅผๆ่ณใใญใใผใ ๏ผ้็จ่ณ็ฃ500ๅๅไปฅไธ๏ผใๆไพ๏ผๆฏๆฅใฎๅธๅ ดๅๆใฌใใผใ ๏ผ ๅช่ฏๆ้ทๆ ชใฎใใใฏใขใใใใใญใฎๆ ๅ ฑใ็กๆใงใใพใใฏใๆฐ่ปฝใซใๅใๅใใใใ ใใใ
anna jackson @anna7jackson727
115 Followers 5K Following New and happy to meet new friends โค๏ธ๐
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Josh Young @JoshYoung
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Kuppy @hkuppy
179K Followers 2K Following CIO of Praetorian Capital. Kuppyโs Korner blog at https://t.co/fygVkh2Zbk Tracking Event-Driven strategies at https://t.co/UfYZR6ERSN. Opinions/not investment advice.
Paulo Macro @PauloMacro
193K Followers 372 Following Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund
339K Followers 2K Following If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs & blaming it on youโฆ NOT TRADING ADVICE https://t.co/l29nWovEkm
Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact
1.0M Followers 1K Following Author of Broken Money & The Stolguard Incident. Investor with a blended engineering/finance background. GP @egodeathcapital. Director at Bakkt & @Swan.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๏ฟฝ... @chigrl
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contrarian 8888 @contrarian8888
65K Followers 867 Following Former hedge fund manager of a multi billion dollar fund. Interested in commodities & startups. Nothing should be construed as investment advice
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
115K Followers 2K Following GS/J. AronโกCanyonโกAkanthosโกKao Family Officeโกhttps://t.co/6Us4owom5j๐Globetrotterโ Headbanger๐คStar Wars Fan๐ Mixologist๐ธDiver๐คฟNO INVESTMENT ADVICE
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
669K Followers 1K Following Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
John Quakes @quakes99
98K Followers 35K Following Retired Earth Sciences Researcher, Professor, Analyst, Writer, Trekker and Explorer. ๐ฅพ๐ Invested in the Global #Nuclear & #Uranium Renaissance ๐ โ๏ธโก๏ธโ๏ธ ๐ค ๐
Kevin Bambrough @BambroughKevin
63K Followers 1K Following Retired Asset Manager, Top performing Sprott Resource PE Specialist, Compounder of capital & Award Winning Author: "The Energetic Investor" CEO Energetic Media
Michael Green @profplum99
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Doomberg @DoombergT
243K Followers 1K Following Account no longer active, as explained here: https://t.co/eS3eVGe4jE All other green chickens are impostors. DMs checked infrequently.
Le Shrub๐ณ @agnostoxxx
154K Followers 2K Following Founder and CIO of a $1 Trillion Hedge Fun. Account for entertainment purposes only. Explicit language
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48K Followers 143 Following Speculator. Analyst. Author of independent due diligence reports. Free, no-spam, no-hype weekly digest available only here. ๐
Grant Williams @ttmygh
145K Followers 979 Following Author, Things That Make You Go Hmmm..., Co-Founder, Real Vision, Advisor to Vulpes & Von Greyerz. Retweets โ endorsements. Likes = bookmarks. WONT SHILL CRYPTO
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292K Followers 2K Following If you cannot show it in a meme, then it is not true.. Macro and hunting 5-10x equity cases @RealVision ๐พ Also founder of https://t.co/XDcwDI88kQ
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Warren Kinsella @kinsellawarren
91K Followers 9K Following Not profound. ๏ฟผ https://t.co/6UCX5PoQiY
MOMof DataRepublican @data_republican
110K Followers 10K Following Conservative, Christian, Navy (retired) wife, Grandma to 4, love Florida! Follow my daughter @DataRepublican ! A "like" doesn't mean I agree!
Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1
178K Followers 2K Following Investor in public and private equity and credit securities. Sometime purveyor of dad humor.
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Kaizen D. Asiedu @thatsKAIZEN
825K Followers 583 Following Clear Thinker. Harvard โ12, Emmy Winner. Oops, made ya think ๐ง
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104K Followers 43 Following ๐ค Money news ๐ค Money takes ๐ Money products Read our TLDR newsletter: https://t.co/lKFiX19ILS Help: https://t.co/62N5WlWrCI โ๏ธ Disclosures: https://t.co/xWukYciin5
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The American Housing ... @americanhousing
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Rational Optimist Soc... @RationalOptSoc
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573 Followers 294 Following Reformed cynic at https://t.co/3lNrkaXeFE Disruption research at https://t.co/RjbWdn3oTx
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327K Followers 2K Following Fighting for the values and policies that benefit working Canadians. If you support our work, please consider leaving a donation: https://t.co/bHSTN0P3O6
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187K Followers 8K Following Critical thinking commentary and analysis. All opinions are my own. ITM
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Zipline @zipline
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469 Followers 643 Following
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๐ฆ๐บCraig Tindale @ctindale
32K Followers 3K Following A few of my thoughts on hard-to-understand issues. The only reason I write is to help awaken everyone from their slumber.
Jewish Jess @jessisajew
25K Followers 174 Following Born in the UK ๐ฌ๐ง Living in Israel ๐ฎ๐ฑ You told me to go back to where I came from, so I did ๐คท๐ฝโโ๏ธ ๐ Insta: jessisajew ๐ TikTok: jewishjess
Kosher @koshercockney
150K Followers 12K Following Just opinions of a Jewish dude. Antisemitic abuse on this platform is getting too much. Stand up to the hate. ๐๐ฝ ืขึทื ืึดืฉึฐืืจึธืึตื ืึทื
Defence Index @Defence_Index
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AI Coffee with AI Sco... @AIScottAdams
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James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy
105K Followers 28 Following Chief Market Strategist @WellingtonAltus. PhD Econ. Astute, observations and conclusions. Personal views. Not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Isaiah Taylor - makin... @isaiah_p_taylor
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Starcloud @Starcloud_
22K Followers 139 Following Starcloud is building data centers in space, to address the AI energy need. We recently launched the first H100 to space. White paper at https://t.co/G8SoHypEL0
Philip Johnston @PhilipJohnston
26K Followers 793 Following Co-founder & CEO of @Starcloud_ - Building data centers in space.
Skild AI @SkildAI
16K Followers 0 Following Any robot. Any task. One brain. Help build general-purpose robotic intelligence at https://t.co/UKh2kQYSqt
Midnight Capital @Midnight_Captl
18K Followers 640 Following AI & semiโs | girl dad | swing hard or donโt swing at all | going droid mode | ex. Apple Global Sourcing
wabi @wabi
28K Followers 38 Following Create and share apps with friends. Tag @wabi with an idea and weโll build it for you.
OpenClaw๐ฆ @openclaw
540K Followers 24 Following The AI that does things. Emails, calendar, home automation, from your favorite chat app. Your machine, your rules. New shell, same lobster soul. ๐ฆ
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10K Followers 2 Following Looking for the next big inflection. Hedge fund run by @hkuppy seeking absolute returns in a benchmarked world.
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