𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront

#Warsh is a major turning point for #Fed policy @marvinjbarth @ThematicMarkets explains it perfectly thematicmarkets.substack.com/p/the-velvet-g…

Canary in the coal mine? Partners Group $PGHN just gated redemptions on its $8.6 billion evergreen fund. The Swiss firm – one of Europe's largest alternative asset managers, with $185B AUM across private equity, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and royalties – limited withdrawals from its Global Value SICAV to 5% of NAV per quarter. The reason: redemption requests surged to 9.8% in Q2. Nearly double the cap. The stock dropped 13% in Zurich. Biggest intraday loss in six years. Down 27% YTD. The disturbing detail The fund already held 15% of NAV in liquidity. Plus an undrawn credit facility worth another 15% of fund size. 30% of NAV available in cash. And they still gated. Why? Because to honor full redemptions you'd have to dump underlying private assets into a forced timeline. That means fire-sale prices, marking down the entire portfolio, and destroying value for the investors who stayed. The board chose to protect the long-term holders over the ones at the exit. This isn't isolated In recent months, the same playbook has unfolded across the industry: – Apollo capped redemptions – KKR capped redemptions – BlackRock capped redemptions – Blue Owl capped redemptions The biggest names in alternatives are all doing the same thing. The anxiety started in private credit and is now spilling into private equity, real estate, and infrastructure. The retail angle Partners Group disclosed that private wealth clients – "typically far more skittish than institutional investors" – represent about a fifth of total platform AUM. A particularly large share of Global Value's investor base. For 15 years, retail was sold the dream: returns of public equity, with the illusion of liquidity, in a vehicle anyone could access. Quarterly redemptions, evergreen structure, no lockups. Today they learned that quarterly liquidity is not a right. It's a privilege the manager can revoke when too many people ask at the same time. The Hotel California problem The illiquidity premium means exactly what it says. You accept being illiquid in exchange for higher returns. Most of the time nobody notices, because nobody wants out. When everyone wants out at once, the premium gets paid in real time. You can check in any time you like. But you can never leave.

“Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arks does.” – Warren Buffett

if you're under 50 and you stay healthy, i think you will live to 150 years old minimum the medical singularity is happening. just in the past 2 months alone: > revmed's pancreatic cancer drug (daraxonrasib) doubled survival in the deadliest cancer there is, 13.2 months vs 6.7 on chemo. it got a standing ovation from 40k+ doctors at the world's biggest cancer conference > a one-time gene editing infusion (verve-102) permanently switched off the gene that drives bad cholesterol and cut it up to 62% from a single dose. one and done, no daily pill for life > a lung cancer pill (lorlatinib) kept 60% of patients with spread cancer progression-free at 5 years. the longest anyone has ever held back a metastatic solid tumor with a single drug > mayo built an ai that catches pancreatic cancer on routine ct scans up to 3 years before doctors can. it spotted 73% of the earliest cases vs 39% for human radiologists > lilly's new weight loss drug (retatrutide) hit up to 30% body weight loss in its big phase 3 trial, and along the way it cut knee arthritis pain by 76% and dropped bad cholesterol about 20% and we are still just at the beginning of the exponential call me crazy but i'm a believer when Demis hassabis says we will cure all disease in the next 10 years

Rod Wong, MD @docrodwong

4 weeks ago

a standing ovation for daraxonrasib at asco. over 40k oncologists, entrepreneurs, investors, and patient advocates together celebrating revmed's breakthru in the fight against pancreatic cancer. u never forget these moments. it's what innovation is all about.

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The Arab Word is Watching a Different War: Three reasons why it has been difficult to understand the Arab position: The first is the Arab relationship with Iran. From the vantage point of Brussels or London, Iran presents itself as a resistance movement with a grievance against American hegemony and Israeli occupation, and this presentation maps comfortably onto familiar Western anticolonial frameworks. What it does not map onto is the lived experience of Arab populations in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, and across the Gulf. In those countries, Iran's presence meant Hezbollah holding the Lebanese state hostage to Tehran's decisions, thirty-five armed factions in Iraq drawing salaries from Iranian funds channeled through the Iraqi national treasury, and Houthi commanders answering to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps while firing on Arab civilians from Yemeni soil. Freedom is not the word any serious Arab observer would use for what Iran brought. Indeed, the Arab world's quarrel with Iran runs far deeper than American bases or Israeli airstrikes. What drives it is the systematic subversion of Arab sovereignty by a foreign power that uses the language of Islamic solidarity as cover for an imperial project conducted through proxies. The second dimension is the proxy question itself, where Western analysis fails most comprehensively. Iran goes far beyond supporting armed groups. Parallel state structures get built inside Arab countries, financial systems get captured, and political figures get installed who owe their existence and survival entirely to Tehran. The Iranians who have administered this project understand it as the export of a revolution, but what Arab populations have experienced is closer to a colonial occupation conducted through intermediaries, and as of now, they’re not mourning the Islamic Republic. When Westerners treat these proxy networks as instruments of legitimate resistance rather than as mechanisms of subjugation, they endorse an imperial project while believing themselves to be opposing one, and as a matter of fact, make themselves the legitimizing force behind Iran’s war against the Arab world. The third dimension is the most counterintuitive for a Western audience, and it is the one most consequential for how the current war is understood and misunderstood. For Arab nationalists, including secular nationalists and even those with deep reservations about Israeli policy, Iran represents a greater and more immediate threat than Israel does. This is a position that Western media are structurally ill-equipped to render intelligible, because Western discourse on the Middle East has been organized for decades around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the primary axis of regional injustice. The result is that when Western governments and Western publics take strong positions against Israel’s actions against Iran’s operations, they believe themselves to be standing with the Arab world. In reality, they are advancing a position that the Arab world does not share and has not asked for, while ignoring the threat that Arab governments and Arab populations actually live with. The rhetorical use of Israel as a perpetual alibi for Iranian aggression has been one of the Islamic Republic’s most durable tools, and Western opinion has served as the unwitting amplifier of that tool across the entire duration of the Islamic Republic’s existence. open.substack.com/pub/zinebribou…

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand has more x.com/i/status/20574…

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

a month ago

This is an extraordinary document written by the research arm of China's spy agency (the powerful MSS, basically the CIA and the FBI all wrapped in one) that absolutely zero media has picked up on. As far as I can see, I'm the first person to write about it even though it was

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COEXIST rather than CONFRONT ! 🇨🇳🇺🇸🌎 ... this could be a tidal change in geopolitics China’s Ministry of State Security research arm is an unusually authoritative window into Beijing’s view of U.S.–China ties. signals near-official thinking China believes the worst phase of bilateral deterioration is over and seeks managed coexistence with the US. a strategic shift toward stabilization ... analytical and pragmatic, balancing realism about competition with a preference for predictable relations ... expect policies favoring controlled engagement, risk management, and institutional channels to prevent escalation cn.chinadiplomacy.org.cn/2026-05/13/con…

english …-chinadiplomacy-org-cn.translate.goog/2026-05/13/con…

Great piece from Rabobank's @TheMichaelEvery on the coming bifurcation. Anyone who mentions COMECON is sure to get my attention: media.rabobank.com/asset/26672cb3…?

WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto? Not AI stocks. Not real estate. What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with? Bonds. 200 years of rate cycles say the same thing: Every peak lasts 56–67 years. The 1981 top was 14% yields. The 2020 bottom was 0%. 39 years of falling rates just ended. What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle — upward? Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world. Their entire career happened inside the bull. The unwind has barely started. And no one is talking about it.

Case in point. I'm short gold today and have been since early March. Yes, I'm a gold perma bull. Right now I'm short — exactly like Billy Ray would be — because Turkey is showing you what's already happening. The Turkish central bank has sold roughly 120 tonnes of gold to defend the Lira and fund energy imports. Bernard Dahdah was explicit in April: central banks are now selling gold "to defend their currency and/or to fund energy purchases." bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold… When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold's biggest bid disappears. Once central banks turn dovish after the energy crisis hits growth, the trade resets and I'm back long. Even gold bulls have to read the tape. Gold 4,000 then 10,000. 9/10

What Japan needs to do is very clear. They need to sell FX reserves for yen, and use that yen to absorb the long-end. This solves their currency and bond/supply demand problems. It is what they will ultimately do. It makes everything harder for the US.

best side bet on hormuz issue without the oil vol $SB sugar futures or $CANE

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

a month ago

This is an extraordinary document written by the research arm of China's spy agency (the powerful MSS, basically the CIA and the FBI all wrapped in one) that absolutely zero media has picked up on. As far as I can see, I'm the first person to write about it even though it was

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x.com/i/article/2045…

Whether or not Europe stands with us, whether or not your journalists do their jobs, whether or not your politicians demonstrate the courage to act, I will fight for my people and my country.

@TMTLongShort if hormuz doesn't open, doesn't trump need carney more to secure north american energy flows?

@TMTLongShort why has trump not seized iranian crude tankers yet?

#zen

the only path that doesn't lead to humanitarian disaster @vtchakarova

Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova

3 months ago

x.com/i/article/2035…

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