Sluba @pabuls

@JCowleyHoops Bust probability 90%

What a chart by JPM.

Hope everyone enjoys a fabulous 4th of July celebration of the 250th anniversary of the founding of this great country. Those of us who are U.S. citizens are so privileged to live here! However, we cannot become too complacent. Our brilliant founders warned us, including Ben Franklin, who was asked at the conclusion of the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia whether our new government would be a republic or monarchy, Franklin replied: "A republic if you can keep it." Today, there are modern leaders who would prefer other forms of government - as they try to move the country towards monarchy/despotism or a "socialist democracy." Also from Franklin: "When the people begin to think they can vote themselves money, it will herald the end of the republic." John Adams: “Remember Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a Democracy yet, that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that Democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious or less avaricious than Aristocracy or Monarchy. It is not true in Fact and nowhere appears in history." For the big spenders in the Executive branch and Congress that have brought us to a $39.3 trillion dollar National Debt, here's a pertinent comment from Scottish historian and author, Alexander Fraser Tytler (1747-1813): “A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.” And another quote from Tytler: "The average age of the world's great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage." A final quote from Charles Louis de Secondat, baron de La Brède et de Montesquieu, a French political philosopher (1689-1755) best known for developing the theory of separation of powers (our founding fathers understood this concept so well): "The deterioration of every government begins with the decay of the principles on which it was founded."

Here are the 9 flagrant fouls on Caitlin Clark "over the last 3 years." Saying 2 over the last 2 years isn't quite the same as 9 over 3 years. It's all a grift. 1. Chennedy Carter (Chicago Sky) – June 1, 2024. Shoulder check 2. Angel Reese (Chicago Sky) – June 16, 2024. Head slap 3. Aari McDonald (Los Angeles Sparks) – Early 2024. Reckless closeout 4. Michaela Onyenwere (Chicago Sky) – Summer 2024 Body check 5. Diamond DeShields (Chicago Sky) – August 30, 2024. Blindside hit 6. Kiah Stokes (Connecticut Sun) – 2024 Postseason. Elbow screen 7. DiJonai Carrington (Connecticut Sun) – 2024 Postseason. Eye gouge 8. Marina Mabrey (Connecticut Sun) – June 2025 Body bump 9. Alyssa Thomas (Phoenix Mercury) – June 24, 2026. Fist to neck

@MotherCabriniNY Joe Kernen has completed validated the term talking head. Grantham is a legend. Tremendous perspective on the markets. Grantham will be validated once again with this segment. Unfortunately.

Colin Cowherd goes OFF on the W for its treatment of CC. “This is a paranoid, weird, insular league. Golfers were weird about a young rookie Tiger Woods coming in... But they got over it. The WNBA can’t get over it. Cathy Engelbert, what are you doing?”

Never has a photo so completely encapsulated the total and complete failure of the @WNBA’s leadership. Never in the history of sports has a golden goose been so deliberately squandered.

The WNBA is the most idiotic sports league of all time… Caitlin Clark is the BIGGEST superstar their league has ever had, who has single-handedly made the W notable for the first time in its 30-year history, yet she’s not on this anniversary poster. Absolute morons.

WNBA @WNBA

2 months ago

Bring a piece of WNBA history home. 🏀 Celebrate 30 years of the W with this commemorative anniversary poster. WinCraft's poster is available now! Tap the link to shop:wnbastore.nba.com/wnba-gear/winc… #WNBALegacyTrail

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Hoping to post another article tomorrow morning on $ABXX.TO called “A Free Call option” to give you the full Sunday to read it. Make sure to follow @thesherlockview as I’ll only post it there. Read time is about 20 minutes.

Should be good👇👇

Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent

2 months ago

For this week’s Gavekal zoominar, I caught up with my friend and business partner Anatole @Kaletsky. We discussed everything from the Iran peace deal, where energy and commodities should head now, the painful underperformance of HK stocks, the outperformance of Japan and many

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Jamie Dimon just spoke at the council on foreign relations and absolutely destroyed the toxic complacency currently infecting wall street instead of delivering the usual corporate optimism, he dropped a brutal reality check on the illusions driving the current market: "the us economy is right now running on a sugar high. the real skunk at the garden party is going to be inflation, which is going to creep back up. the gravity of interest rates hasn't gone anywhere" "you sit in these endless executive meetings, and the first thing management does when they can't drive organic growth is start pitching m&a. i don't want to hear that bullshit" "massive government deficits and booming private credit markets have created an environment where players have completely lost touch with reality. a market that hasn't seen a real credit cycle in forever breeds a complacency that never ends well" bookmark and watch his raw breakdown of the current economic reality

ludoonchart @ludoonchart

2 months ago

Nassim Taleb despises the modern class of "experts" who give advice without taking any personal risk during a raw, unscripted lecture, he broke down the only metric of trust that actually matters in life and business-having your own skin in the game: "if you see fraud and don't

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"That number is now accumulating to impact the largest US stocks by about eighteen percent a year." "Over fifty percent of Google's profits in this last quarter alone were tied directly to the price appreciation of its investment in Anthropic. People are putting a multiple on those gains. I mean, these are one-time gains." Mike Green on the impact of passive flows vs. fundamentals on the big tech stocks.

Imagine drafting both of them in the same draft Deciding you want neither of them Only getting one 1st rounder, 29 games of Anthony Davis, and Max Christie in return

I’m going to say this as calmly as possible: Watching Caitlin Clark in the WNBA has become genuinely hard to stomach. Not because she struggles sometimes. Not because she makes mistakes. Not because she gets criticized. That comes with being great. It’s hard to stomach because it has become obvious that the league, the officials, the media, the players, and even her own organization have all decided that the most important thing is not letting Caitlin Clark become too big. And that is insane. This league was handed the most marketable, electric, revenue-generating player women’s basketball has ever seen, and instead of building around the moment, too many people seem obsessed with humbling her. She gets fouled. Held. Hit. Cheap-shotted. Mocked. Targeted. Then when she reacts like a normal competitor, suddenly everyone wants to analyze her attitude. No. Her attitude is not the story. The story is that a generational player is being treated like a problem by the very league she helped drag into mainstream relevance. This reminds me of the worst kind of youth coach... the one who sees a special player, feels threatened by her talent, and slowly drains the joy out of her in the name of “teaching humility.” That is what this looks like. The freedom she played with at Iowa is disappearing. The fire is still there, but the joy looks damaged. The confidence looks weighed down. She looks like someone constantly fighting the refs, opponents, narratives, coaching decisions, jealousy, and a league culture that should be protecting its golden opportunity instead of resenting it. And let’s be honest: Stephanie White has not helped. Benching Caitlin Clark randomly when she is controlling the game tempo, or having your best shooter off the floor in critical game ending minutes when a victory is within reach is basketball malpractice. Limiting her rhythm, downplaying her greatness, benching momentum, and treating her like just another piece instead of the engine is absurd. You do not take a player who changed the economics of your sport and manage her like you’re afraid her greatness might offend the room. Nike deserves criticism too. Other players get signature shoes rolled out with urgency, while the biggest draw in women’s basketball is somehow still waiting on that signature shoe. That is not confusing. That is revealing. Fans are not stupid. They see the fouls. They see the double standards. They see the jealousy. They see the media resentment. They see the league benefiting from her popularity while refusing to fully embrace her. And here is the part the WNBA better understand quickly: People are not tuning in to watch Caitlin Clark be humbled. They are tuning in to watch Caitlin Clark be great. If she walked away tomorrow, the fans would follow her. The sponsors would follow her. The energy would follow her. The high salaries and the charter jets would follow her. And the league would be forced to confront the uncomfortable truth it keeps trying to avoid: Caitlin Clark did not need the WNBA nearly as much as the WNBA needed Caitlin Clark. At some point, her family, her agent, and her team need to ask a hard question: How much longer do you let a league profit from her while allowing the culture around her to beat the spirit out of her? Because from the outside looking in, this does not look like normal adversity anymore. It looks like abuse. It looks like a league trying to break the very player who made millions of people care. x.com/i/status/20609…

Mostly WNBA Tweets  @MostlyWNBA

2 months ago

Thought Steph left her fire in Connecticut! 🥵

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Watching NBA and see a commercial for healthy dog food from the fridge- chicken breast and veggies, @Freshpet followed by an ad for Wendy’s fried chicken sandwich on white bread @Wendys WTF

@cavs @NBA James Harden is the most overrated player of the last decade. Plays defense like a matador

@MidwestHedgie @vin20times When you are not balanced in your worldviews sometimes you can’t see the forest for the trees

The S&P 500's free cash flow yield is now at its lowest level in twenty years. Way below 3%. This is what you actually earn as an owner of America's largest companies, before any price appreciation. For context, US Treasury bills yield more than that. With no risk. Investors are accepting less cash for owning stocks than they get for holding cash. The last time this happened was the dotcom era. You don't need a complicated model to understand that something has to give.

Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat

3 months ago

Three markets. Three different stories. One of them is wrong. • Oil: +82% YTD • S&P 500: at all-time highs • 30Y Treasuries: yields above 5% These three signals don't usually coexist for long. If oil is right about inflation coming back, stocks have to derate. If stocks are

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