Patrick Schneider @patricksecon
Assistant Professor in economics at Imperial Business School Formerly @LSE, @bankofengland, @Uniofoxford, & @UNSW patrickmschneider.com London Joined January 2017-
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What are the open problems in economics? Here is a few 1, why did the Industrial Revolution happen in England and in 1800? Why was there 300,000 years of no growth before? 2, Why are some countries rich and most others poor. That is, how come some country could bandwagon on the industrial revolution and others not. Even when the innovations are already there. Why can’t they copy? 3, why does the economy some times hum along and do fine, and why does it all of a sudden stop (business cycles).
AI is solving some of mathematics hardest long-running open problems (impressive indeed) Can it also solve some of the hardest open problems in economics? I was a math major once, and the open problem that got me interested in economics was: what makes one country prosperous,
AI is solving some of mathematics hardest long-running open problems (impressive indeed) Can it also solve some of the hardest open problems in economics? I was a math major once, and the open problem that got me interested in economics was: what makes one country prosperous, but another not? (1/n)
all sound and fury, signifying the crux, genuinely
a master class in prompting and alignment. repeatedly telling it: "no no do the thing we asked. come on man. don't fuck around, just do that one thing, please"
@dannolan Why would we need a lot more software now that we have this? This is the final boss of software, it’s over
@ben_moll @SoumayaKeynes This is the way
Many economists forget that the first-order problem of an aging society, one with high life expectancy and low fertility, is how to redistribute income from workers to retirees. How fast output grows is, surprisingly enough, the lesser question. If you have roughly as many retirees as workers, what each worker produces must be split in two, one part for the worker, one part for the retiree. At a basic level, it does not matter whether we do it through taxes, as in a pay-as-you-go social security system, or through capital income, as in a fully funded one. Workers will not be happy to see half of their income taken away, whatever the absolute level of that income. This redistribution will poison the political system and lead, with high probability, to dysfunctional policies. We are already seeing it across Europe in the fights over retirement benefits. And much of the American unhappiness about the profits of large corporations, largely owned by the old, is the same conflict, only in the fetishized form of equity ownership. Claims of the form “technological progress (e.g., advances in AI) will fix the problems brought by aging” miss the political economy of the situation. Aging is about politics, not TFP.
A takeaway from the National Bureau of Economic Research meetings: The premium on research that is mainly about computational complexity has dropped sharply owing to AI. The pendulum is swinging back to 'new insights,' 'new mechanisms,' 'new measurements.' Not a bad thing.
@kareem_carr This would come under RICO
🚨 New paper🚨 What is the effect of stimulus checks on the economy? We study a natural experiment: postwar veterans’ payments. With awesome coauthors @jptguerreiro, @drkaenzig and Ed Manuel. 1/10
1/ What can the flight patterns of birds teach us about innovation and economic growth? Vasco Carvalho & I take a stab at this question in a new paper: Firms as Foragers We develop an empirically grounded theory of growth in which firms forage in idea space. 🧵 (link below)
GDP answers the question posed to it, as well as we know how: What is the total value of goods and services produced in the market economy, and what is the value of income earned by such production in the market economy? It is a terrible measure of things it wasn't designed to measure: consumer surplus, welfare, non-market activity, happiness, etc. Don't expect yards to measure volume well.
Actually, GDP sucks. I say that as an expert on reconstructions of national accounting. But it sucks in the way that all critics never say: it understates the massive gains in wellbeing that humanity got. If you shift to things like estimates of VSL (value of statistical life)
Just posted some new lecture slides: *Reinforcement Learning for Economists* RL ideas are very powerful, yet criminally underused in economics. I think mostly because RL is not typically taught in grad school -- let's change that! All materials here benjaminmoll.com/lectures/
Australia’s retirement saving system isn’t perfect, but it sure was a good idea to think this stuff through more than thirty years ago before the boomers started retiring
One of these things is not like the other.
A small favour for my economist network - we're hiring an Economist (Dutch speaker) based in the Netherlands at Indeed Hiring Lab. If you know someone who'd be a great fit, please share this with your Dutch-speaking network! Application link below
This kind of polling is not meaningful. If you present the benefit of something without the cost, and ask people what they think - in 5 seconds - then of course they'll be in favour of it. Making political decisions based on this kind of polling is mad.
I have no idea how the UK is ever going to get out of the mess they're in, because so many of the causes of their stagnation have supermajority support. The triple lock is *insanely* popular with British voters. Even with 18-34 year olds!
@dannolan that's just how liz truss talks man, be kind
Students were arrested for protesting this.
Israeli authorities and security forces deliberately targeted Palestinian children, resulting in genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza, and war crimes in the occupied West Bank, an independent UN inquiry said reut.rs/4eD9CfA
📢 I’m hiring a full-time RA based in India to work with me on projects at the intersection of development, finance, and trade. Applications are rolling, so apply ASAP! Details: ananyakotia.com/ra/ Please apply and share! @econ_ra @predoc_org #EconJobs #EconTwitter
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