Patrick Mathieson @pmthn
software investor @tobacapital thedownround.substack.com Joined January 2021-
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@quantian1 don't agree with this but it's awesomely provocative
@JaredSleeper I really enjoyed that @mcannonbrookes interview a few months back where he talked about how most customers despise consumption pricing
it's hard to respond to articles that are paywalled after the first sentence. But in short: Say Google spends capex for a TPU chip. It spends its first 2 years doing AI frontier tasks that generate "AI revenue". But then it transitions to performing more vanilla workloads like supporting Google's $300B ads business, or various other compute tasks in GCP that aren't frontier inference/training. The ROIC on this spend looks terrible if you only look at incremental "AI revenues" but not if you remember this hardware is part of the refresh cycle for all of the hyperscalers "legacy" digital businesses. I'm not sure what exactly you're counting in "Actual revenue" in the chart at the top of the thread but it clearly doesn't include Google ads, FB ads, MSFT first party products, AWS/GCP/Azure "vanilla" (ex-AI) workloads, etc. If you look at all the dollars coming in as hyperscaler capex right now, they are supporting over $1T (arguably near $2T) in existing business, not 100-200B as in your chart. Now hey, maybe the ROICs are still poor, guess we'll have to find out. But you can't perform an ROIC analysis using narrowly-defined "AI revenues" in the numerator and a very expansively defined capex in the denominator. Chips are fungible between tasks; the whole reason this market is exciting is that silicon is general-purpose.
@YellowCatCap @SixSigmaCapital no, I'm tweeting at @SixSigmaCapital that I don't think "megacaps can't afford this" is correct, using your point as support
@TurnerNovak @chudson this is completely bang-on and IMO is why the VC asset class is structurally destined to underperform the nasdaq. Most VC incentives line up with buying high, not low
"think in 5-7 year timeframes" you know what's a question I surprisingly almost never see asked... what are Anthropic+OAI revenues combined going to look like in 2031-2033?
jeff bezos on why playing the long game beats everyone: 1. most things we built took five to seven years before they made the company a single dollar. customers got value right away. but shareholders had to wait years. that gap is exactly where almost everyone gives up. 2. when
@coreyward @axiomalpha @ansonlin amazing how few people on this thread have spent the 5 seconds required to discover this
software companies earnings skyrocket b/c their 2nd largest cost center deflated massively
@neeravbm What happens when the cost of making those features is 99% less?
@ser_kingslayer_ @evrgn11112231 "left for dead" they're up 41% and 56% YoY???
@ShanuMathew93 it will more than 5x in 2 years
I don't recall any prior technologies so compelling that people were publicly begging $1T companies to absorb their personal health data in order to make use of it
When Fable works it’s brilliant, but the unilateral guardrails makes me frustrated beyond belief. I have a folder of health information for my fiancée with like 100 days of oura health data, a hundred lab tests, transcripts of doctor visits and like way more for a super
uhhhhhhhhhhmmmm
this is my personal singularity moment this post may sound like a paid ad. I only wish. I'm concerned, more so than happy. the world is changing, and, among the scenarios where AI goes terribly wrong, inequality is the most realistic, yet, the one Anthropic seems to be the least
@RHouseResearch pretty sure GOOG is doing all of the above, hence the equity raise
Today I’m thrilled to announce Scotch has raised a $20M Series A, led by VMG Partners, with participation from @firstround , @LererHippeau , and @TobaCapital . In 2024, we set out to fix something that's been broken for 30 years: the technology running America's 40,000+ independent liquor stores. Most of those stores operate on POS software built before the iPhone. Before Amazon was founded. In some cases, before the store owners themselves were born. Since launching our first store ten months ago, we've crossed $1 billion in annualized gross payment volume. That number tells us two things: (1) The problem is real, and (2) operators are ready to move. Store owners are quite literally blowing up systems they've used for two decades to partner with Scotch. While these milestones are fun to celebrate, they're far from what we're focused on. We think about the calls from owners and GMs who used to spend Monday mornings buried in distributor invoices, line by line, for hours. Now they spend that time looking at margins, planning reorders, and growing their store. That's what we built this for. Our CTO, Dan Chen, spent more than a decade in liquor tech, including CTO at Drizly before its acquisition by Uber. Kevin Hodges and I built Skupos in convenience retail. We didn't stumble into this category. We picked it on purpose, and we built the team to win it. This round lets us keep building faster and with more intention. More automation. More time returned to the amazing people running these stores. Independent liquor retail is an $80B market that technology has ignored for a generation. Tens of thousands of stores will be getting the technology they deserve. We're just getting started. scotchpos.com
Lydia Ward @sheridank63803
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lounge riffs @loungeriffs
564 Followers 203 Following the lounge. riffing on things i find interesting. not investment advice. views are my own.
Jeffrey Emanuel @doodlestein
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The Full Stack Analys... @pinjalim
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63K Followers 3K Following I mean I went to sleep last night just thinking about that trap block that Jonah Jackson had. Things like that just put a little smile on my face.
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