Fafu @pointuspilot

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn. So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works. Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it? Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them. For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information. Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible. Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.

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Fafu @pointuspilot

8 months ago

Dusted. github.com/Jimmymugendi/I…

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Fafu @pointuspilot

8 months ago

Testing, debug, test, tune. Still implementing.

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Fafu @pointuspilot

8 months ago

Working on #ILINA technical track on ai safety evaluation and mechanistic. @ILINAProgram #apply #ILINAfellowship

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Fafu @pointuspilot

8 months ago

@leolamin23 @ILINAProgram Qualify

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Fafu @pointuspilot

9 months ago

Use Google sheets as an external table directly in BigQuery. No local files, no re-uploads, no extra plumbing. Everytime the sheet updates, BQ reads it live.

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Fafu @pointuspilot

9 months ago

For the data-related dudes If you update BigQuery tables by exporting data - editing Excel - Pishing NIFI - Running Shell scripts: do this That worlflow works, but it's heavy too many steps, more room for errors, slower iterations especially for small reference or control tables