Policy Tensor @policytensor

Anusar Farooqui, Founder and CEO, Systematic Portfolios LLC. Words: https://t.co/ATzak2R4A0 systematicportfolios.com Joined September 2008

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

a hour ago

For 11,422 global urban settlements, this displays Bailey’s Effective Temperature (ºC), which is computed from the extremes of monthly mean temperatures. Binford used it to classify climatic zones for hunter-gatherers. We can also use them as the proxy for thermal burdens.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

a hour ago

@SamRoggeveen @henrycobb He is known to lie through his teeth so that does not mean very much. The issue is whether the Australians, the Indonesians, and the Taiwanese come to believe it is not close but in the wrong direction.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

6 hours ago

I have come a long way. Two years ago, I believed it was possible to hold the line in Taiwan. I was wrong.

Policy Tensor @policytensor

2 years ago

WTF are you talking about, @ElbridgeColby? 1 —We enjoy clear nuclear superiority over China; 2—We spend many multiples of China's military expenditure on our military; both absolutely and relative to gdp (spoilsofwar.substack.com/p/our-real-nat…); 3—We have sixty military allies, China has

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

2 hours ago

I was wrong to agree with the late Cote Jr. This is incorrect. China can suppress the bases from which the submarines are launched. And that makes the difference between winning and losing a world war. “Now, even if China could, through the use of concentrated power, down every single US warplane in the Western Pacific, and take out every single strike platform in the region, they still won't be in a position to suppress US fire because US nuclear-powered attack submarines (Virginia class) are invulnerable. They are invulnerable bc the Chinese do not know how to track these super quiet boats. For more on the undersea balance, see Owen Cote Jr.”

Policy Tensor @policytensor

2 years ago

@h_liyan @ElbridgeColby A amphibious invasion is the hardest of all military operations. You can't really do it without first establishing command of the air and the sea over the invasion route. Basically you need to suppress the enemy's fire before you can get your landing craft safely across. (This is

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

2 hours ago

Sensing a pattern with the author.

Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs

17 hours ago

“Middle powers are not free agents in a flat world. But they can still prosper by partnering with a great power in an increasingly unequal one,” writes Michael Beckley. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

2 hours ago

@TheStalwart Cocaine is not known among the bright kids.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

2 hours ago

@henrycobb @SamRoggeveen The question in general is whether statesmen are wrong about the balance of power.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

3 hours ago

@misentr0pe For one, these guys on the paying side, not the receiving side of things in the UAE.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

7 hours ago

🤣 The Emiratis.

Matthew Levitt @Levitt_Matt

17 hours ago

Rocked by the Iran war, the UAE sours on Trump: ‘We got played’ wapo.st/4aNVqz2

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

3 hours ago

@tim_sandsquid63 FDR and JFK.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

4 hours ago

Actually, there is a definite answer to this historical counterfactual. The triple alliance was proposed by Stalin. It was rejected by Chamberlain who thought the Russians too weak to count. [‘If we do get an agreement [for a triple alliance] as I rather think we shall, I’m afraid I shall not regard it as a triumph. I put as little value on Russian military capacity as I believe the Germans do.’] This was in part high racialism or particularism as Engerman called it politely: “The Slav could not put up a fight with the Teuton.” Had a triple alliance obtained in 1936-1939, Hitler would’ve been likely deterred. The British fucked it up in the late-1930s no less than they had fucked it up with the Policy of the Entente. On the latter, see Paul Schroeder as well as Keith Wilson.

Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸 @AngelicaOung

4 hours ago

Here’s an interesting counterfactual: what if France and Britain joined up with USSR to defeat Germany? The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact would have never happened. Germany was never Russia’s ally of first resort. We can safely say the Germans would have been quickly knocked out. But

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

3 hours ago

@NicholasOShaug1 Snyder is a moron and an unreformed Western supremacist.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

3 hours ago

@SamRoggeveen I think it is garbage. Worse than @MatthewKroenig’s copium in FP. I will be write about Taiwan. There is something in the pipes.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

4 hours ago

@seanpaulkelley Certainly.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

4 hours ago

@seanpaulkelley I agree. But try to sell this idea in this market!

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

8 hours ago

Are you actually contesting that this is the CCP’s position? Or you’re just playing devil’s advocate? Here’s a very serious recent paper. This is too obvious. But since you are asking for evidence, you can find it in paper and references therein. “The third resolution elevates Xi's status, describing him as the “core, helmsman, and principal founder” of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,” which it defines as “the Marxism of contemporary China and of the 21st century.” On foreign affairs, the resolution reaffirms long-standing CCP positions. It stresses the need to resist “external pressure” on core sovereignty issues, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and maritime territories. It also reasserts that unification with Taiwan remains the party's historical mission. These claims are all enduring concerns for China.” direct.mit.edu/isec/article/5…

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

4 hours ago

@TopofMurrayHill I try to be conservative. Esp in my mea culpas.

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Policy Tensor @policytensor

5 hours ago

It’s not just an issue of whether the GCC is aligned. It is whether the policy on which the Gulf Arabs can agree can work given Iran’s military primacy. They are getting close to making their peace with reality. Some more kicking and screaming than others.

Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom

5 hours ago

The problem for a Gulf-Iran dialogue is that (as ever) there is no unified Gulf position on Iran. Plus the Gulf has minimal leverage beyond the financial, and it's still unclear how much Iran is actually willing to trade for that So they can launch an independent track, but the