aaron @probaaron

@thenarrator this is why basis matters so much a rate hike, CPI print, weather event, or policy change can be directionally right and still be a terrible hedge if the payout doesn’t match the loss

0 0 1 23 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

a day ago

@realTomBayes yes but I think the issue is more in just how involved Polymarket seems to have been in the operation

0 0 1 135 0

View Details

Kalshi was last valued at $22B but sports is doing a lot of work in that number May volume mix: Sports: 58% of volume Sports + 70% of Exotics: 77% Est. sports-related fee share: 82% proxy valuation at 18% federal ban odds: > $25B if sports stays live < $5B if it doesn’t

17 4 43 12K 13

View Details

aaron @probaaron

a day ago

@uttam_singhk 🍿 sidelines continue to outperform

0 0 0 267 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@Gino_BetOpenly nice, looking forward. happy to be a sounding board if helpful

1 0 1 35 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

prediction markets have a credibility problem, and the main players keep giving institutions reasons to stay away the chaos may be good for attention, but serious institutional flow probably goes to whoever looks boring, compliant, and serious x.com/neilmhta/statu…

Neil Mehta @neilmhta

4 days ago

NEW investigation for @WSJ: - Polymarket is paying scores of offshore clippers to quietly promote its international exchange in the U.S. (though it’s banned from letting Americans trade on the platform) - Polymarket made dummy websites mirroring its real site, then paid creators

284 1K 7K 3.8M 2K

7 1 27 5K 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@mattkalish Matt, curious your thoughts on my Kalshi valuation napkin math x.com/probaaron/stat…

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

17 4 43 12K 13

0 0 1 1K 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@halfkelly + I keep thinking this time will be different 😅

0 0 1 560 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@bryan_johnson working on it

0 0 0 318 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@Gino_BetOpenly @realTomBayes yeah definitely some loose assumptions and back-of-the-napkin math here

0 0 1 27 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@Gino_BetOpenly @realTomBayes @ManifoldMarkets just mana not $ 😄

0 0 2 17 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@Grob003 @realTomBayes fair point on perps, but regulatory risk is there too how do you see indexes growing that much?

1 0 0 197 0

View Details

aaron @probaaron

2 days ago

@__Max__S__ @realTomBayes agree EOY ban is unlikely mostly making the valuation point: if the sports business went away, the implied haircut is massive, ~80% or ~$20B in this simple model