Adam Reynolds @reynoada

@Brad_Setser So @Brad_Setser, is the large increase i. equity and debt outflows driven by private outflows as China has opened up new routes for outbound investment, or rerouted reserve accumulation as China government diversifies more from UST?

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

4 months ago

@DAlperovitch They definitely should, however most of the major Taiwanese ports are in the north, south or east, so shipping to those can avoid the Taiwan Strait.

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

4 months ago

@lady_valor_07 20/20, but I was born in 1966.

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The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

4 months ago

The million dollar question: What happens to the stock market this week? Here's our view: In the lead up to this weekend's events in Iran, we saw a large geopolitical risk premium priced into many parts of this market. Oil prices are up +20% in 6 weeks and gold prices surged +13% in a month. The question becomes: is this geopolitical risk premium "enough" for what's happening now? It's an "expectations versus reality" situation. At the 6 PM ET futures open today, we expect to see an initial surge in commodity prices and drop in equities. In our view, the Strait of Hormuz situation, and its potential closure, is the biggest risk to financial markets right now which will drive broader price action. What happens in the Strait of Hormuz will largely depend on how long this conflict lasts: Historically, President Trump has heavily favored swift military operations, such as the June 2025 Iran strikes and the capture of Venezuela's President Maduro. If President Trump follows this historical path, we believe an initial surge in commodity markets and drop in equity markets could be rapidly undone, particularly if a "deal" is floated again. Even any sort of indication of when the military campaign will "end" could reverse price action rapidly. Again, a substantial geopolitical risk premium is already priced in. However, the catastrophic case for markets is one where the US and Israel enter a prolonged war with Iran lasting months or longer, resulting in a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices above $100 per barrel, according our analysis, which would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%. That said, do not forget that three of President Trump's top policy priorities are to be the "peace president," eliminate inflation, and lower US gas prices to $2.00 per gallon. A prolonged war with Iran would work in the opposite direction of these key initiatives, particularly in the short-term during a crucial midterm election year. We think Trump aims for a short and swift operation and markets prevail once again as the dust settles.

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

4 months ago

@AndreasSteno If US government offers ship insurance through the Straits, possibly. Not sure that is likely though just yet. I think that could happen if oil rockets higher due to disruption there.

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

5 months ago

@Charles48684781 I just moved from the starting position for the first time.

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

7 months ago

Hi @MaxisListens. It seems impossible to phone you from overseas once an account has been closed and a number terminated. How can I talk to a human re my deposit refund that I requested months ago?

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

7 months ago

@Matt_Pinner 24

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

8 months ago

@JoeMarler MVP on @TheTraitorsUK Celebrity Traitors. A big win for the front row, overturning those stereotypes.

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

9 months ago

@robin_j_brooks Not sure that Chinese exports are being crushed, with 3/4 last mths posting records Yes maybe some reduction in margins due to trans-shipment China can have a bigger impact on US withholding rare earths than US has on China withholding semiconductors. There will be a deal.

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Adam Reynolds @reynoada

9 months ago

There will still be a deal because the #USA is more dependent on Chinese #RareEarthMinerals across broad swathes of their economy. #China has already adapted to the US curbs on #semiconductors and is now trying to stop their own companies from importing the $NVDA H20 chips.

Steve Hou @stevehou

9 months ago

As far as I can tell here is what happened. [some of conversation I imagined] The US Commerce Dept widened export controls of its technologies to a wider set of Chinese companies (all the subsidiaries of sanctioned Chinese cos with 50%+ interests) and started charging Chinese