donncha @runningprofits

quant analysis with advanced tech : I build models that solve hard problems Full time trading 16 years PhD 🏃‍♂️🏊🚴‍♂: 3xIM 12xHIM runprofits.com South Devon United Kingdom Joined January 2016

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donncha @runningprofits

16 hours ago

#SML - might venture a crossing of the Avon to visit .. sp still in a long consolidation

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Supermarket chaos erupted in France as shoppers rushed to buy Lidl’s discounted air conditioners and fans amid a heatwave, with long queues, heavy police presence in Paris and a store entrance forced open in Nanterre.

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donncha @runningprofits

a day ago

POV: AI chatbot in reality… where your tokens really go

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donncha @runningprofits

2 days ago

I saw this from the FT on gold and thought excellent as a (1/headlines) indicator.. seasonally Q2 is the worst time of the year and June is the worst month : $4000 is a critical level though : confluence! 👀

Financial Times @FT

3 days ago

The price of gold fell below $4,000 a troy ounce as it headed for its worst quarterly performance in more than a decade. ft.trib.al/kSF3aiQ

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

#CMCX ..WRONG ! try 550p + then +22% b/o exceptional exponential w/ RSI 80+

donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

#CMCX cracking update - "exponential and exceptional growth " ..spoken like a true quant - it's got 500p + on it few IBB names been doing well #IGG #AJB #EMG This update materially alters the earnings trajectory for the firm, suggesting that the B2B segment is scaling more

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

things gone a bit sour at #ABF pf from the sugar division: The company now expects the division to post an adjusted operating loss between £25 million and £60 million for FY26, citing increased gas price expectations linked to geopolitical conflict. Crucially, management anticipates a "further deterioration" in FY27, signalling a protracted period of weakness for the segment

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

Yup...the alpha is in the skew. In UK markets very few stocks make up the vast majority of gains ..the below from over 1000 analyses of my ACE work over the past year #IQE #CWR #SML #GMT #RPI #ITM all outliers compared to the clustered more normal returns. ACE = Alpha Catalyst Engine more at runprofits.com

Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades

5 days ago

a former PM at Citadel and D.E. Shaw, now trains institutional analysts, on where alpha actually exists: "my general prior is that alpha lives in the tails." "80% of stocks are mostly fairly priced. but there's a 10% tail on the right, 10% tail on the left where there's

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

#AIM is now a correlate of #gold - it's a market cap thang but gold miners don't like high #oil so the correlation has inverted. #GGP #THX #SRB #THX #GMET >22% of AIM now made up of miners

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

#AIM Correlation to Oil 2016 to 2026 from hero (+0.27) to less than zero ... it now negatively correlates to #oil by -0.27 why???? /3

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

#oil in 2026 has been a bit of a toxic shock to UK indices even #AIM which might seem odd at first .. and it was the very opposite in 2020... what was then a sign of recovery is now a sign of inflation/stagflation . but why AIM? /2

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

I didn't take all of them but I take enough : it's qual and quant but uses a rule-based engine of almost 500 analytics which I built and trained with almost a decade of price response to catalysts. Confidence comes from the system expectancy based on running over 1000 real analyses (not back testing) . The skew maps to the scoring hierarchy : at ACE> 10 the kurtosis becomes more pronounced giving a lot more predicatibity . Tis a thing of beauty tho it almost killed me building it : my Opus!

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donncha @runningprofits

4 days ago

Last day of the month/QUARTER /half ...at an index level, UK has been "meh" BEEN a pickers market . #AIM is flat YTD BUT #IQE +838% #TUN +186% #ITM +84% #AAZ +43% #FTC +43% #KIST +34% #SQZ +27% its def had it's bright spots

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donncha @runningprofits

3 days ago

@A1Mhigh yup would that it t'were that simple 😜 tho alpha and skew is literally my bag - it's the A in the ACE ... my system skews by design... repeatedly, numerically , consistently , provably

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donncha @runningprofits

a week ago

#HFD Halfords taking an age to uncross reckon it wants a new high 52w hi when it does

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donncha @runningprofits

a week ago

Gold did find $4000 and sets-up for a bounce: June is the worst month in every year for gold ...EVERY year in the last 26 years of this centur.y ....cyclical and seasonal . DXY breakout accelerated the move but is not the cause

donncha @runningprofits

3 weeks ago

my note below on gold last Friday and losing the 200MA/$4500 level. This was a big level confluent w/ the 50% point of the big 25 breakout. We are now at the Fib 618 - sometimes it gives weak support but if not, door opens up to $4000 and below .

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donncha @runningprofits

a week ago

This old beast is working that hard there's a partial vacuum in my office ... Actual negative air building

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donncha @runningprofits

a week ago

#ITM on a catalyst watch off the 50% retrace ...no numbers in the below and LOIs (from personal experience of technology biz dev) can be speculative but it's directional and positive AND DB is Europe's biggest railway company : that's the why, the what shows price forming support on a volume build-out which forms the base to reload

donncha @runningprofits

3 weeks ago

#ITM is at the 50% retrace of the breakout - I am looking to add back if we see volume support off this : if not it's busted and back to 100p and the 61.8 on a longer term hold: or MoMo to SloMo