Spy's Guide @spysguide
John Braddock, author of A Spy's Guide To Thinking, A Spy's Guide To Strategy and A Spy's Guide To Taking Risks - https://t.co/3K1TigjNbQ spysguide.com Joined May 2015-
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The most difficult issue in the Iran talks: Pressure doesn't create compliance for revolutionaries who want to suffer.
You don't weaken a revolutionary by making them suffer more - that only helps them play their status game. You weaken them by exposing the lavish lives their children and loved ones are living elsewhere.
Revolutionaries like the ones in Iran want to suffer in public - it helps them play their status game. But they want to benefit in private - they want their children to live lavish lives in the West.
Revolutionaries have a status game - but it's different from most status games. What drives status in a revolution is suffering. And sacrifice. And earning scars. When you make revolutionaries suffer, you're handing out promotions.
Trump's team plays one kind of status game: Who closed the biggest deal. Who built the biggest thing. The revolutionaries in Iran play another kind of status game: Who suffered the most. Who sacrificed the most for the revolution. Strength to one side is weakness to the other
Iran says no direct talks scheduled with U.S. as Witkoff and Kushner leave for Pakistan justthenews.com/government/whi…
Sanctions make the other side suffer until they come to the table. Works great on your regular autocrat. Doesn't work on revolutionaries. Revolutionaries want to suffer - sanctions give them what they want.
How do you know the other side of a negotiation are revolutionaries? They celebrate martyrs.
Does Trump's team understand that "revolutionaries" like to suffer? Revolutionaries that suffer win the status game against the revolutionaries that don't.
The problem with negotiating with revolutionaries: They like to suffer.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Islamabad. Iranian media says Araghchi won't meet them and called it "desperate." An Iranian journalist on the ground just made it worse: "We have no idea why they're coming. Araqchi will likely already have left by the time they arrive."
@shaneparrish "Reasoning backwards" as strategists say: medium.com/@spysguide/a-s…
The Endgame is everything: medium.com/@spysguide/bui…
...if you can't imagine what follows, you can't have a purpose.
@tferriss If you organize the games into positive-sum and zero-sum games, you'll see that they tend to have a structure: medium.com/@spysguide/a-s…
4 of 5 stars to A Spy's Guide to Strategy by John Braddock goodreads.com/review/show/24…
@normonics Some experts won't recognize the limit of their expertise: medium.com/@spysguide/the…
"Once you fully apprehend the vacuity of a life without struggle you are equipped with the basic means of salvation." - Tennessee Williams medium.com/@spysguide/a-s…
@ole_b_peters Or they've been burned by experts talking about things outside their expertise: medium.com/@spysguide/the…
Mirroring the strategic framework here: medium.com/@spysguide/bui…
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