Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier
Chief Investment Officer (CIO) @LombardOdier Private Bank Investment insights lombardodier.com Geneva, Switzerland Joined June 2011-
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Although still elevated in nominal terms, the U.S #M2 #Money #Supply is falling at its fastest pace on record, showing a 4% #contraction over the last 12 months. This strong reduction in money supply, never seen since 1960, suggests a further decline in #economic #activity over the year to come.
Discover the latest edition of my #newsletter "Rethink the Month" on LinkedIn: Are #equities due a fall? Four charts for Q1 #earnings and beyond Read it below: linkedin.com/pulse/equities…
In the #US, #consumer #debt hit new record at $16.9 trillion and delinquencies are also rising. The numbers show high #delinquency rate among the young generation (20s, 30s) suggesting worsening future #credit access that will weigh on future #consumption.
Dear investors, in this week's CIO Viewpoint we examine the reasons behind the recent rise in #gold prices, and offer our outlook for the #precious #metal. lombardodier.com/contents/corpo…
Japanese #equities are now outperforming Chinese equities. In #Japan, foreign #investors are interested in the country’s #stability, positive #earnings outlook and improved corporate #governance. In #China, investors are now having trouble getting past #geopolitics.
In the #ISM #Manufacturing PMI survey, participants indicate the status of overall #US #business #activity including levels of production, employment, deliveries and inventories. Since 1970, everytime the index went below 42, a #recession occurred. We are now at 46.3!
In #Europe, the Top 10 contributors of the #Stoxx600 performance year-to-date contribute to 30% of the index returns this year. This shows us that #performance in Europe is much more spread out in terms of #concentration and #sectors (Luxury, Staples, Health Care..) than in the #US, where the top 10 contributors of the #SP500 ytd are responsible for 80% of the index performance and are mostly composed of mega-cap #tech #stocks.
Global #food prices have been going down for the last year, and should help bring down #US Food #Inflation, which increased by 8,2% YoY in March. Unlike energy, Food is still a positive contributor to US CPI, accountable for 1,13% of the 5 % Headline YoY CPI seen in March 2023.
At now 5%, #Fed #Funds offer the same yield as #US IG #credit and 3 times the level of #SP500 #equity dividend #yield. This becomes a potentially attractive #investment solution for conservative investors as attested by the huge inflows in #MoneyMarket #Funds.
In the #US, the top10 contributors of the #SP500 #performance in 2023 are related to technology. Together they contribute to more than 80% of the equity index performance year-to-date.
What are my latest views on #China #reopening ? Check out below the video from my #interview this morning on @CNBC London! cnbc.com/video/2023/04/…
In the #US, the first large #banks reported strong #results on Friday (JPM shares jumped 7.5%, Citi 4.5%). This should boost the sector, which had previously not participated in the #SP500 rally these recent days due to stability concerns over the #BankingCrisis.
This week foreign #investors bought a record amount of #Japanese #stocks following reports that Warren #Buffet was bullish on #Japan. Confidence builds in the nation’s economic #stability, positive #earnings outlook and improved corporate #governance.
Global #supplychain pressure is now easing, and the NY Fed Index is back to 2008 levels. This is good news for #inflation, which sees both moderation in #demand and improvement in #supply.
Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet
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