Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster
Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of #Superforecasting. Test your forecasting prowess at https://t.co/5H8XIhN7eK goodjudgment.com Joined September 2014-
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“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. Learn more: goodjudgment.com
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Who makes a good forecaster? Take our FAST aptitude test before the workshop and find out where you land. Superforecasting Workshop, 14-15 July, 6-8:30 PM EDT, Zoom. tickettailor.com/events/goodjud…
“Forecasters who practice get better at distinguishing finer degrees of uncertainty, just as artists get better at distinguishing subtler shades of gray.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. Online training: goodjudgment.com/services/onlin…
Good Judgment’s forecasters beat US intelligence analysts who had access to classified intel. You can learn how they do it. Two evenings, 14-15 July, 6-8:30 PM EDT, on Zoom. Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting. tickettailor.com/events/goodjud…
“Forecasting is not a ‘you have it or you don’t’ talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. Online training: goodjudgment.com/services/onlin…
Some people are consistently better at calling uncertain events. Not because they’re psychic, but because they’ve trained for it. We teach how. Superforecasting Workshop, 14-15 July, 6-8:30 PM EDT, Zoom. tickettailor.com/events/goodjud…
“Not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. Online Training: goodjudgment.com/services/onlin…
“Under- and overreaction to new information [are] the Scylla and Charybdis of forecasting. Good updating is all about finding the middle passage.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
“Nuance matters. The more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better a forecaster you are likely to be.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
“Without revision, there can be no improvement.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
“I believe it is possible to see into the future, at least in some situations and to some extent, and that any intelligent, open-minded, and hardworking person can cultivate the requisite skills.” - Tetlock & Gardner in Superforecasting Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…
-- Learn more: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom… Reserve your seat: tickettailor.com/events/goodjud…
One last reminder: Superforecasting Workshop, 12 & 13 May, 12:00 pm - 2:30 pm ET. Small groups. Researchers and Superforecasters guiding you through the techniques. Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.
“If it’s possible to improve foresight simply by measuring, ...why isn’t measuring standard practice? A big part of the answer ... lies in the psychology that convinces us we know things we really don’t.” -Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…
“Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated...” - Tetlock & Gardner in Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…
“Foresight is real. Some people have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill.” - Tetlock & Gardner Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…
“Superforecasting remains hard work. Those who do it well appreciate the fragility of their success. They expect to stumble. And when they do, they will get up, try to draw the right lessons, and keep forecasting.” - Tetlock & Gardner Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…
Ask us about government, NGO, and student rates. Register here: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…
AI can synthesize data. But the toughest calls depend on how well you reason under uncertainty. Learn Superforecasting firsthand: May 12-13 workshop, virtual, led by Superforecasters and decision scientists. As featured in the NYT and Washington Post.
Our May 12-13 Superforecasting workshop covers probabilistic reasoning, calibration, cognitive biases, and structured forecasting, the same techniques that beat intelligence analysts by 30%. As recently featured in the NYT and Washington Post. Register: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…
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