Tech Fund @techfund1

If UBS is correct here, $CBRS is going to be a nice performer.. "Our conversations with experts and takeaways from recent industry events suggest compute is likely to continue moving along disaggregation route which offers significant performance improvement on the system level. Although AWS has not yet been fully formalized, we think the upside scenario would imply some deployment ratio of CBRS WSE CS- 3/4 per Trainium 3 rack (we estimate at 20K in C2026), but also potentially deployed alongside older racks too. We estimate AWS shipments potentially reaching $4-10B/yr before the end of the decade and think the opportunity may be measured in $10Bs in annual hardware shipments over the longer term. Beyond AWS, we see MSFT potentially interested in disaggregated solution over time, once MAIA 300/400 are ramped and widely deployed."

SiC Power Semis - China’s Yangjie Tech says capacity is fully booked (SCMP) Positive indicator for $IFX $WOLF $STM The SiC industry has been in strong oversupply in recent years, so as more companies can't meet rising demand, this is a bullish indicator that orders will also be coming towards $WOLF. $WOLF's New York SiC fab remains heavily underutilized, so fresh order flow will give it tremendous operating leverage.

Anthropic mentions Sonnet 5 uses 1-1.35x more tokens Theoretically good for ARR, however, Sonnet 4.5 does such a good job at the workflows I use it for that I don't see the reason to change my API calls

x.com/i/article/2070…

@DavidTimis here you go techinvestments.io/p/asmls-strate…

Rising DRAM capex will drive a boom in EUV orders The reason is that Litho intensity at the next DRAM nodes will grow even faster than in TSMC's logic roadmap - $ASML

@JCJC915661 In DRAM the Chinese can't even access EUV + advanced immersion tools

There's just no way out of this DRAM shortage in the coming years "Even as we expect industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand. Memory industry supply growth is dependent on significant greenfield fab expansions. These greenfield projects are large, complex and time-consuming. Further, the pace is constrained by several factors, including long lead times for fab construction across the world, shortage of workers with critical trade skills, complex regulations, including permitting and the need for enhanced energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, memory process technology which is among the most advanced to develop and manufacture in semiconductors is getting more complex with every new node." - $MU CEO

"early testing shows that Jalapeño will deliver performance per watt substantially better than current state-of-the-art. A detailed technical report on performance will be presented in the coming months. The architecture reduces data movement and balances compute, memory, and networking resources to achieve realized utilization much closer to theoretical peak performance. Jalapeño is a blank-slate design for modern LLM inference, not a general-purpose accelerator adapted from earlier AI workloads. It is informed by the systems OpenAI runs every day across ChatGPT, Codex, the API, and future agentic products, while also being designed for current and future LLMs across the industry. The goal is to combine the power and throughput of today’s leading AI accelerators with latency closer to the fastest specialized inference systems, making Jalapeño well suited for interactive LLM products at scale. That is the full-stack advantage. OpenAI is not only developing frontier models or building products on top of them; it is designing the infrastructure underneath them: chip architecture, kernels, memory systems, networking, scheduling, deployment systems, and product experience. Because OpenAI operates across the stack, each layer can be optimized around the same goal: making its models faster, more reliable, and more affordable for users."

"SaaSpocalypse" but software engineers are still paid better:

Even $NVDA A100 prices are still climbing in China (FT)

All semis are down but $CBRS is rallying This is some modeling I recently did - basically, when the share price gets close to USD 200, imo the risk-reward starts to look attractive. Took a smaller position recently after the huge sell off. Obviously not investment advice

@mattmtxsc nah, you're comparing apples and oranges.

There's still a whole group of investors out there who think that $MSFT is Windows. Those will be surprised when Azure grows to over 50% of revenues in the coming years, which is a phenomenal business. The more Microsoft's revenues will shift to Azure, the more the market will reward the stock with a higher multiple. Azure is one of the clearest winners of agentic AI in my view, as all enterprise cloud apps and cloud data systems basically run on either AWS or Azure. Also, free OS like all the Linux versions have been available for decades. Google has made a free alternative to Office available for decades now (Google Workspace). Even software like Windows and Excel is harder to disrupt than people think. Most people just don't want to retrain on another system just to save a few dollars, which may or may not be able to do everything they can do in Windows or Excel.

David Orr @orrdavid

2 weeks ago

Another thought: $MSFT is likely going to face at least a solid duopoly in desktop operating systems, which means their profits from Windows are likely to drop 75%+. And if it's an oligopoly, 90%+.

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@mattmtxsc nah, it's a platform for enterprises to run all their workloads in the cloud

this one is good too I've read both, highly recommended amazon.co.uk/Google-Cloud-P…

For all those thinking that the cloud is a commoditized business, just read this book you'll understand cloud engineering and why this is a great business: amazon.co.uk/Amazon-Service…

@PiyDW that's the bear case on the cloud from 10 ten years ago - commoditized, low margins, no moat etc. The last ten years have shown that's completely wrong. Read this book to understand why the cloud is a great business: amazon.co.uk/Amazon-Service…