torpan @torpan12
Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean ~ Munger. Tweets are not investment advice, do your own DD. Joined July 2021-
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Jul-26 for Grafa pretty solid. $1.75mn, +349% yoy. $MDP.TO Medexus
V. Achievable imo, based on institutional adoption curve. Perhaps some potential surprise to upside if older Gx regimens face supply disruptions & institutions pivot to Grafa much faster than anticipated.
$mdp.to Medexus - Grafapex Jun-26 patients demand $2.3mn (+100%yoy). Takes fy27q1 to $5.1mn. Up 23% sequentially from last Q. Back-of-envelope, Ann. Grafa run-rate is $20.3mn & mgmt. guiding towards $30-$32mn for fy27, so we want to see +30% QoQ from here.
@MW65601323 $mdp.to $1.5m for grafa. 103%yoy. June was seasonally larger, so hard to say how CYQ2 will land. Suspect we’ll see a big step up in 2H from the current +$16mn annual RR on Grafa / off label usage not as linear. Ixinity+rasuvo also incl. if interested. +57% & +33% yoy for May.
$mdp.to Medexus grafapex patient demand $1.4mn for March - above top-end $4mn guidance for Q1
@knicksman12 @Stable0752 Ixinity $21.7mn and Rasuvo $30.2mn TTM sales per BBGs Synchrony health inst. WAC data
@Stable0752 Shouldn’t expect smooth, exponential adoption curve for these launches - not a weight loss pill. Monthly demand will increase stepwise as hospital P&T committees & formalised treatment protocols adopt. Only if Qrtly patient demand starts plateaus (ex. Seasonality) should we worry
@Stable0752 1.3mn for grafa. 3.9x YoY. Also noting June was a big month last year, so will be interesting to see full Q after we know CYQ126 beat guidance. Ixinity & Rasuvo had a solid April, too. 2.0mn & 2.9mn, respectively. $mdp.to Medexus
@Stable0752 Strongest month yet ($1.54mn) - almost at bottom-end of $3-4mn guidance range with March to go. $MDP.TO
$MDP.TO Medexus - Jan26 Grafapex sees strong $ rebound in patient demand. On track for Mgmt. guidance $3-4mn for the quarter.
Generational buying op. for $APO & $KKR. Both +20% FRE CAGR. Inflows will continue. + dry-powder mean current fears are an opp. to deploy. Sure there are weaker players w/ funkier non-sticky liabilities & opaque leverage - but it's not them. Many tourists in space rn.
$ZS (& many other cyber names) being thrown out with rest of AI-software fears. Great underwrite at these levels for a +20% ARR compounder in med. term, imo. I am a buyer & can look past sector SBC at these lvls as AI is tailwind for the biz and growth not broken.
@MrJulius007 This peak fear and capitulation if there is no real credit event coming down the pipe. Great valuation to underwrite at add imo - $112 for $15 2029/30E ANI.
@Pgrills24 Not a fan of $owl but this is an idiotic take. They’re a relatively asset light AM. Look @ balance sheet - completely different to a bank. Has gone from +20pe to ~10. Perhaps franchise and future fundraising is shot, but still have long term contractual mgmt fees worth something
@MrJulius007 @SageVeritas Same - Frustrating ST when own pnl isn’t ripping. on other hand, we’re LT owners of a wonderful biz and underwrite it at better valuation. More buybacks @ depressed px will only improve our LT CAGR. A doubled ANI by 2030 and a larger FRE mix can only be ignored so long…
$mdp.to mkt continues to misprice Medexus as shrinking legacy biz rather than launching orphan drug platform. Fyq3 grafapex softness is technicality of rev. recog/wholesaler stocking & seasonality. Sequential patient demand +30%. & we saw unexpected stabilisation in rest of port
@MrJulius007 Where else can one get such a safe doubling of EPS within the next five yrs and for a sub 14x PE. Wonderful underwrite at this level imo. Also, think decent read across for APO earnings next week from KKR, Ares, BX, CG, OWL this week.
@Pgrills24 look at BS for the alt managers. Ares is asset light. p/b not right metric to price it. Names like APO & to a lesser extent KKR more BS intense from insurance BS. On a 27E PE Ares is c.16x vs JPM 14x - better metric to together with growth expectations etc. to eyeball things imo
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