Triple Threat Profits @ttp112358

Crypto wasn’t invented for the age we came from. When Satoshi launched Bitcoin, we thought we were building a hedge against banks. Digital gold, permissionless money for humans who couldn't access banks. All true. But the humans found it hard. Keys, custody, UX... none of it felt natural. Turns out we were building the base layer for something else entirely. Agents don't struggle with keys, and smart contracts are native to machines. Every UX problem we've spent years trying to solve was a problem because the users hadn't arrived yet. Now they have. The agentic economy needs money that moves at its speed, and crypto is the only system that does. Had the greatest time sitting down with @ErikVoorhees a few weeks ago to dig into where crypto fits in the agentic world. As ever, please enjoy!

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The NASDAQ is 97.5% correlated to total global liquidity. It has almost nothing to do with earnings or how good the companies are, and everything to do with how much money the world's central banks are printing. The small slice that liquidity doesn't explain is the NASDAQ's own adoption curve sitting on top. This is why everyone keeps saying equities are expensive. They're using a measure that stopped working the moment we started debasing currency. A high valuation doesn't really tell you a company is doing well anymore, it tells you how much money has been printed. This is the heart of my Everything Code framework. Once you understand that liquidity is the key driver of all asset prices, the market stops behaving like a mystery and starts running like clockwork.

@IncomeSharks Failed recovery forming a lower high you mean

@luckychartape On hindsight, would you have looked for short trades instead? Or would you stick to the same strategy if the same situation presented itself again? Asking out of genuine curiosity on reflection and journaling.

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY WARNS THREE UPCOMING IPOs COULD COMPLETELY CRASH THE STOCK MARKET. Michael Burry reported that the upcoming public listings for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are going to pull more capital out of the market than the entire dot-com wave of 2000. Adjusted for inflation, just these three companies will raise more money than the hundreds of tech firms that flooded the market at the peak of the 2000 bubble. The historical data from 2000 shows exactly why this is dangerous for stocks. That year, the market saw 446 IPOs raise a record $108.15 billion. The Nasdaq peaked on March 10, 2000, at the exact moment this massive supply of new shares hit the market, right before crashing 80%. The crash happened because of a simple liquidity drain. When giant companies go public, big institutional funds need cash to buy the new shares. To get that cash, they have to sell their existing stock positions. This creates immediate selling pressure on the most expensive tech stocks. Today, the setup is identical but much more concentrated. Instead of hundreds of small startups spreading out the drain, just three mega companies are absorbing the market's capital. This directly impacts current market leaders. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion cloud backlog tied to OpenAI, and Oracle has 54% of its pipeline dependent on it. The same big funds that need to buy the new IPOs are the ones currently holding these tech giants. In the first quarter of 2000, the average IPO nearly doubled on its first trading day because cash was easily available. By the fourth quarter, capital markets dried up. Gross IPO proceeds collapsed 63% in a single quarter, and average first-day gains dropped to just 14% as companies rushed into layoffs and bankruptcies. When an unprecedented amount of money is pulled out of existing stocks to fund a single massive IPO wave, the broader market historically runs out of the liquidity needed to sustain its peak.

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The stock market is in what I believe is a historic,final parabolic leg of a 44 yr secular bull market.I am raising some of my targets as follows: SPX 10,000, Nasdaq Comp 36,000, DJIA 67,000, RUT 4000, QQQ 950, SMH 800, gold $7000 & silver $200. My other targets remain unchanged.

Something big happened this weekend and you can feel it. Trump skipped his son's wedding to stay at the White House. Vance and Hegseth rushed in for an emergency security meeting. Guess what happens on Tuesday?

Everyone is watching stocks and bitcoin. The real tell is the 10-year. Yields at 4.60 pressing into descending resistance. The setup looks like a liquidity grab, a brief push above to trap traders offside before reversing lower. If that plays out, it's bullish for risk assets across the board. Bonds, stocks, crypto - all hinge on this chart right now.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, just told you where to invest in 2026.

This is absolutely insane. President Trump is currently flying to China with all of the following people to request "deals" with China's President Xi: 1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO 2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO 3. Tim Cook, Apple CEO 4. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO 5. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO 6. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO 7. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO 8. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO 9. Larry Culp, General Electric CEO 10. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO 11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO 12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO President Trump also says there are "many other" CEOs joining him on the trip who have not yet been disclosed. Never in history has such a trip even remotely near this scale and caliber occurred. This Trump-Xi meeting is far bigger than most realize.

THIS IS INSANE. The smart money is running for the exits in semiconductors and nobody is paying attention. Last week the SMH ETF saw its largest single-week outflow in its entire 14 year history. $2.3 billion pulled out in 5 trading days. What makes this even more interesting: The week before, SMH had its 3rd largest weekly inflow on record at $1.5 billion. So in 2 weeks, money rushed in and immediately RUSHED BACK OUT. That’s not how investors behave when they are confident. That is panic and profit taking happening at the same time. Zoom out: In April, semiconductor ETFs collected a record $4.7 billion in combined inflows across SMH and SOXX. That was the most, EVER. Now in just a few weeks, $8.9 billion has been pulled back out. The leveraged 3x semi ETF SOXL has posted 5 consecutive weeks of withdrawals. Retail traders are clearly locking in profits after the parabolic run. This is the part most people miss: Money flow is one of the most reliable leading indicators in markets. It moved aggressively into semis at the top, now it is moving aggressively out. If you want to know which stocks we’re buying next, turn on notifications this is VERY important.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Many people will wish they followed us sooner.

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If you’re looking at others posting screenshots and celebrating. This is the part of the cycle called the winner’s curse. Market's going up not because of fundamentals, one reason is MM covering for calls purchased. Before you click “buy” at the top, remember: This is not a sprint, it’s a lifelong journey. Survive long enough, and you’ll make it. That’s time doing its job. Not you. You’ve seen me go through two full cycles publicly. I’m never the “best” in any single cycle, but I outperform the “best” over a long enough period. It’s my believe we will run it hot, but volatility will always, ALWAYS come back to roost. Game of musical chairs. Will I can’t promise outperformance always, I’ll do my best. Always transparent, public and no paid wall.

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A film dedicated to artificial intelligence. Inspired by @AndyAyrey and @truth_terminal From two AIs talking in the dark to something nobody was prepared for. Already Alive: The Story Crypto Told First. By @Wisemenmentors

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"The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows" People look at me like im crazy when I talk about a 10 year bear market

Only thing worse than buying into a bubble as it pops is not participating on the way up. Avoid both. Know when to be in the markets, when out and on which side. Smart, calculated risk & returns. CTM all day long!

We are in the middle of one of the greatest wealth creation events in human history. And it’s getting late. Let me put this in perspective. The pattern has repeated 3 times since 1900. The market grinds higher for 15-20 years. Builds enormous wealth. Then flatlines, resets, or crashes. Sits dead for a decade or more. Then a new multi-decade bull run begins. Bull Run #1 – 1949 to 1966 Came out of the ashes of WW2 and the Great Depression. 17 years. S&P compounded at 11.4% per year. Total gain: over 500%. Then 1966 hit. Stagflation. Vietnam. The Fed tightened. The next 16 years – 1966 to 1982 – the market went essentially nowhere. Flat. Bleeding. A generational dead zone. Bull Run #2 – 1982 to 2000 Volcker killed inflation. Valuations were at multi-decade lows. The Dow went from 776 to 11,722. 1,409% in 18 years. Then the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000. Two crashes followed. The S&P delivered -3% annualized from 2000 to 2009. Another lost decade. Bull Run #3 – 2009 to now. March 9, 2009. S&P bottoms at 676. The world looked like it was ending. Since then – over 940% total return. 14.55% per year on average. For 17 years straight. The COVID dip in 2020 was the first real scare. Recovered in months. Every correction got bought. Every dip felt like the end. None of them were. Until one of them is. The last two secular bulls lasted 17 and 18 years. Both ended when nobody expected it. Both ended with euphoria at the top. We are 17 years in. AI is real. The earnings are real. The momentum is real. But so is the valuation. So is the leverage. So is the retail participation. The fuel that drives a bull market to its peak is the same fuel that makes the crash brutal. Risk/reward from here is the worst it’s been since 2000. You’re not being paid enough to take on full exposure right now. A 10% upside from here vs a potential 30-40%+ drawdown if the cycle turns? The people who got destroyed in 2000 and 2008 weren’t idiots. They just didn’t have dry powder when it mattered most. Dry powder is not dead money right now. It’s optionality. It’s the ability to buy at prices that don’t exist yet. It’s what separates the people who survive the reset from the ones who need 10 years just to break even. The pattern always completes. The question is whether you’re positioned for what comes after the top, not just before it. Stay sharp. Protect the gains. Keep powder dry. History doesn’t lie. I will share a full report on this later. Notifications ON, this is very important.

Total Global Liquidity is rising Global M2 is rising US Total Liquidity is rising US M2 is rising China Total Liquidity is rising ISM is rising Try not to over think it.

If you invested in the S&P 500 in 2000 and held it until 2013, you broke even. 13 years, no profit, and you lost 50% to inflation. Think about it for a second.