Value Drift @valuedrift
Predicting the vote of the market in advance. No AI slop. Joined December 2014-
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@CostaV02 Damn, if only we noticed it then...
Unbelievably, the first one.
NEW: @roundhill files for “Semicap ETF”. Will invest in “companies that design, develop, manufacture, sell, or service machinery, tools, and software used for semiconductor capital equipment”
$DJCO (he didn't found $DJCO but his first company was founded by him).
Companies led by those who have shown it's not just luck and they can do it again: $NBIS $SPCX Any others? Rich Barton retired...
Funny how especially in this current choppy regime, the good buys feel bad and the bad buys feel good.
Wait really? I do...does this work for like, $HYPD? I guess it doesn't work for $PURR...
BREAKING: President Trump signs executive order — 0% capital gains tax on crypto this year (because no one has gains anyway).
I think we need to see what happens tomorrow to know, since you need at least two points and hopefully three to have a trend, but if MAGS bounce, I think $AMZN is the best positioned: - Strong consumer - Robotics - Strong beneficiary of both Anthropic and OpenAI
@sorianmaran I bought some $SKM, didn't quite move like I wanted...
Old enough to remember when $META rugpulled $EVC by cancelling their contract...
@sorianmaran If they were public 50% OpenAI 50% Anthropic would be a dominant portfolio IMO. Too bad there are no amazing proxies, each one is tainted in some weird way. Believe me, I've looked at them all I think, down to the $ORBS of the world.
In terms of end demand, does open source take the place of failed frontier labs?
Failed frontier labs (SpaceX, Meta) sell their compute to successful frontier labs. There is no excess compute in aggregate. GPU rental prices are as high as ever. Capex will continue to be revised upward.
$ACMR and $KSTR may be strong buys here. $META selling compute is literally completely irrelevant to China's AI buildout.
Predicting today's price action was fairly easy. Now the hard part. Is this a one day shakeout? Lots of "news" that was actually months old (OpenAI inference efficiency, Meta compute, etc.) release all around the end of quarter, right when positioning is vulnerable. Trend been very choppy recently...
If only I was a big account. But I would rather be a right account.
In the very short term, good odds of a reversion trade long big tech (and frontier labs) at the expense of semis. Convenient some narrative fodder (inference efficiency) came out for it today just as quarter end happens. It may not work but if it does it show work tomorrow.
The first thing investors in China need to think about is does something make the government happy. I was never tempted by the HK brokerage stocks. And this is NOT a wise move. Why didn't Unitree do this? Obvious.
robot gf/bf are coming sooner than most people expect. I was invited to UBTECH’s product launch in Shenzhen yesterday, and the latest humanoid robots genuinely surprised me. They unveiled a new emotional companion series, and the U1 Ultra (you can customize how you want ) is
@tautologer It's not the *US* government you should talk to, then...
@bookwormengr We already know they would, since ChatGPT is banned in China.
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