illya @wallstphd

Here's something most people get wrong about the Leading Economic Index (LEI): it follows the '3Ds' rule—duration, depth, and diffusion. When all three are negative, it's a strong recession signal. With 10 components, it’s one of the best predictors out there. I built recessio...

Serious question for macro traders: With the JOLTS Quits Rate flashing a warning while industrial production stays safe, are we misreading the labor market's strength? I track these indicators daily and the divergence is striking. What gives?

Every recession in the last 50 years was preceded by a yield curve inversion. The 2s10s spread is crucial here: when short-term rates exceed long-term rates, banks tighten lending. This typically signals a recession within 12-18 months. My recession tracker monitors this closely.

Current status of key recession indicators: - SAFE: Industrial Production Index - WARNING: JOLTS Quits Rate - WATCH: Manufacturing Employment - WATCH: Real Personal Income (ex Transfers) - SAFE: Sahm Rule With the JOLTS Quits Rate flashing a warning, how are you adjusting y...

My recession tracker shows mixed signals: Industrial Production is safe, but the JOLTS Quits Rate is a warning. Most traders ignore employment data—why is manufacturing employment still on your radar? Serious question for macro traders...

Here's something most people get wrong about the Sahm Rule: it has predicted every US recession since 1970, including those the Fed overlooked. It triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% from its low. My recession tracker shows its perfect track recor...

Serious question for macro traders: With the JOLTS Quits Rate flashing a warning signal, how are you adjusting your strategies? Are you focusing more on labor metrics or inflation indicators? My recession tracker shows some shifts worth discussing.

By the time unemployment spikes, the recession has often started months prior. That's why understanding the difference between leading and lagging indicators is crucial. Leading indicators like the yield curve and PMI can signal shifts before they happen, while lagging indicat...

Serious question for macro traders: with the JOLTS Quits Rate flashing a warning while Industrial Production remains safe, how are you adjusting your strategies? Are you more concerned about potential job market shifts or the broader economic stability? Let's discuss.

Serious question for macro traders: With the JOLTS Quits Rate flashing a warning while most are focused on unemployment, are we underestimating the labor market's potential impact on the economy? My recession tracker shows interesting correlations. What do you think?

A surging DXY Dollar Index might sound like a win, but it often signals trouble. A strong dollar crushes corporate earnings for multinationals, as revenues in foreign currencies translate to less profit. It also pressures emerging markets reliant on dollar-denominated debt. Th...

Serious question for macro traders: with the JOLTS quits rate flashing a warning while other indicators remain safe, what does this divergence suggest for the labor market and overall economic stability? I track these daily, curious about your thoughts.

Here's something most people get wrong about M2 money supply: it just contracted for the first time since the Great Depression. This is rare and dangerous. When M2 shrinks, it signals reduced liquidity, slowing the velocity of money. Historically, this leads to deflationary pr...

Serious question for macro traders: With JOLTS Quits Rate showing a warning signal and the unemployment rate still relatively stable, how do you reconcile potential job market tightness with consumer spending power? I track these shifts daily on my recession tracker.

The Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP) facility recently dropped from $2.5T to near zero. This isn't just a number—it's a liquidity alarm bell. When excess liquidity vanishes, it can signal tightening financial conditions, often preceding economic slowdowns. I built recessi...

Current indicator status: My recession tracker shows a mixed bag. Unemployment is stable, but the JOLTS quits rate is flashing a warning. That's a potential sign of labor market stress. Serious question for macro traders: Are we underestimating the risks?

Here's something most people get wrong about the ISM Manufacturing PMI: when it dips below 50, it signals contraction in manufacturing. This matters because manufacturing is a key economic driver; a slowdown here can lead to job losses and reduced consumer spending. I built re...

My screener just flagged some interesting names today: - $ARCC with a P/E of 9.96 and RSI at 56.5, suggesting it's not overbought. - $AIG at a low P/E of 8.77 and RSI of 53.8, indicating potential value. - $BBY is notably oversold with an RSI of 39.2 and a P/E of 8.37. I ...

Serious question for macro traders: With the JOLTS Quits Rate flashing a warning while the Unemployment Rate remains stable, how do you interpret this divergence? My recession tracker shows these trends can signal instability ahead. Let's discuss.

Serious question for macro traders: With the LEI and credit spreads looking safe, but GDP growth on watch, what’s your play? Are you leaning bullish or preparing for potential turbulence? Let's discuss how you're interpreting these signals.