twentyfour @whose24
vincere aut mori Joined June 2019-
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The SpaceX proxy trade minted generational returns. Anthropic is next. With an S-1 filed for a $1T+ IPO, how can retail investors play it? The truth is this trade isn't as straightforward as it was for SpaceX. There isn't a clean proxy like $SATS, where the equity stake was equivalent to the stock's entire MC. And since every top lab is private, you can't just buy the closest competitor at a fraction of the valuation, like $RKLB or $ASTS. Nor can you find a quality, concentrated closed end fund like $STCK.TO. Interestingly enough, the 3 public companies holding billions of dollars of Anthropic exposure are all contrarian bets in this market. None are being priced by the market as AI beneficiaries, despite their Anthropic ties actually earning them vendor status and unique collaborations with the company that go far beyond a simple equity stake. To me that's what's most interesting - double upside. Not just because Anthropic might become the world's most valuable company one day.... But because investors are genuinely sleeping on these businesses as is. In our latest Substack article, @KawzInvests and I explain where Anthropic is as a business today.. But also model and rank the 3 Anthropic proxy trades for retail investors. - A COVID darling product relegated to a "feature" $ZM - The SaaSpocalypse's poster boy $CRM - A Korean telco dinosaur fresh off a damning cyber attack $SKM Link below or in my bio.
alright, I didn't think the earnings would cause that much chaos around Oracle, so here's some fundamental analysis for y'all; first, the numbers that matter tonight. Q4 FY2026: - revenue $19.2B, up 21% 📈 - non-GAAP EPS $2.03, up 24% (after stripping one-off event)📈 - cloud infrastructure: $5.8B, up 93% 📈 - RPO: $638B, up 363% YoY, grew $85B in Q4 alone 📈 - operating cash flow FY2026: $32B, up 54% 📈 - free cash flow: -$23.7B📉 the selloff is rational on a single number. $32B operating cash flow vs -$23.7B free cash flow means Oracle spent ~$56B on capex this year. but here's the context the market is missing. $75B of the $638B RPO is customer-prepaid or customer-supplied GPUs. customers are handing Oracle their own hardware. that's not Oracle's capex, it's pre-funded by the buyers. the actual capital requirement is materially lower than expected. now the comps, which are more interesting; --- hyperscalers --- $AMZN — EV/fwd rev: ~3.5x | growth: ~15% $GOOGL — EV/fwd rev: ~4.9x | growth: ~22% $MSFT — EV/fwd rev: ~7.4x | growth: ~18% --- high-growth enterprise software --- $WDAY — EV/fwd rev: ~3x | growth: ~13% $NOW — EV/fwd rev: ~8x | growth: ~22% $SNOW — EV/fwd rev: ~14x | growth: ~33% ---- $ORCL---- EV/fwd rev: ~7.2x | growth: ~34% | FY2027 guidance: $90B Oracle is growing faster than every hyperscaler on this list. faster than Microsoft, Alphabet and ServiceNow. trading at a discount to Microsoft on forward revenue despite a higher growth rate. half of Snowflake's multiple with a comparable growth rate. the risks are; $104B in debt, negative FCF, heavy capex cycle, FY2027 guidance confirmed but not raised. the bull case; - non-GAAP operating margin 43%. - gross margins structurally 67-71%. - management guided cloud infra to; - $32B FY2027, - $73B FY2028, - $114B FY2029. it's a delivery schedule, as most of it is already reflected in the $638 RPO. one last thing nobody mentioned tonight. the selloff is about capex and guidance optics. the multiple doesn't reflect the growth, the backlog, or what's coming. happy to help, - yves
@grok @Pearsonpc @BeuvingJordy @Serenity they are not their competitors, if anything - they’re their suppliers
$AIXA controls ~90% of InP MOCVD reactors and every one ships with LayTec metrology inside, the only provider ensuring atomic-level precision. LayTec is owned by Nynomic (M7U), a tiny German photonics group valued below its book value. open.substack.com/pub/fwriter/p/…
@Iamgerman__ I've never heard about $M7U before, but I'll take a look at it later. Typically not as much of a fan of $ASML type equipment sellers like $AIXA, but I like your thought process!
@DnaRynkow koniec świata, rynek się załamał, wszystko sprzedajcie!!!
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@AdrianK18255041 @thebtcembassy oczywiście najwiekszymi znawcami są zawsze ludzie z 1000$ w krypto xd
@Darky1k Add $whisp, gonna be a crazy comeback. Am i right? @whispersai
fumbling generational wealth was just a part of your lore bro its ok
100x 💰
literally praying for people to buy $pill at this 150k mc low. 1 tweet, 1 mention and it goes to multi millions. do you remember what happened to $ALON, when @a1lon9 said anything about the coin? That is the pill that changes lives, change yours now, take the pill.
@Darky1k As i called $pill, i’m calling $whisp rn. 11m MC tech = 100m MC tech don’t fade it, the next big thing @whispersai
$PILL 5M MC💰
literally praying for people to buy $pill at this 150k mc low. 1 tweet, 1 mention and it goes to multi millions. do you remember what happened to $ALON, when @a1lon9 said anything about the coin? That is the pill that changes lives, change yours now, take the pill.
900k ath 😙 6x 😙
literally praying for people to buy $pill at this 150k mc low. 1 tweet, 1 mention and it goes to multi millions. do you remember what happened to $ALON, when @a1lon9 said anything about the coin? That is the pill that changes lives, change yours now, take the pill.
@Darky1k Add $WHISP @whispersai to your portfolio.
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