AltayCap @AltayCapital

Value investor. Istanbul. Nothing I post is investment advice. All my writeups are free. No paywalls. https://t.co/vNBoJqnyTK altaycap.substack.com Switzerland Joined March 2022

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

6 hours ago

@Matrix_invests @ReneSellmann Microsoft is done with gaming. They realized it was a terrible mistake already, thus are working to spin off gaming in the coming years.

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@CacheThatCheque They have pretty solid market share too. Bought my basket bet in mid 2023 and am up 55% (excluding dividends) Strong market position + cheap (5.8x ev/ebit). Would love some buybacks though. Dividend is solid at 3.5% ish.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

3 days ago

@CapitalShipyard are you hedging short STRC with any long MSTR? They both prob just go down together

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

3 days ago

What's to stop MSTR from totally rugging STRC and cutting the dividend entirely and announcing they will never pay another dividend and let it accrue forever. Offer to buy it back at 20 cents on the dollar or forever be orphaned/trapped. The most board seats pref gets is 2. not enough to do anything. Tbh, MSTR rugging the entire STRC class of holders would be very on point for crypto. MSTR holders might even cheer it on!

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

3 days ago

@killapabkai I've posted modest pushback on the idea. Ifs cheap by U.S. standards, but not egregiously cheap by small South Korean gaming company standards.

AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

Small SK gaming companies (Neowiz) routinely trade below 1x ev/ebit with superior biz, dividend, + buyback. Why own GRVY over this? If they come out with a big 5-10% dividend, it will work. Otherwise I think it trades down.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

3 days ago

@orrdavid @SowingAlphaSeed Every time I see people say Claude or Gemini are better for this I roll my eyes. I use these tools a ton and it's so obvious ChatGPT is leagues better. Claude can make fancy charts and cool presentation equity reports, but the content is not accurate.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

3 days ago

@orrdavid

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

4 days ago

@alynokioku I enjoyed the Akihabara Geeks documentary! Cool to see younger Ryukishi07 and the other cast of characters.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

Popmart/Labubu was a TikTok viral sensation, which blew up so quickly so losing some steam is to be expected ($27b mcap still). Sanrio is more akin to timeless Disney IPs with much smaller mcap. After all, look at those anniversaries you cited! These chars have been loved for a long time. Strong growth forecast for this upcoming year too. If they miss on forecasts bigly then yeah, could be turning point. Who knows. If they hit forecast it looks very reasonably priced to me. Doesn't seem to get any credit for iconic brand either in the ev/ebit multiple.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@mr_deepvalue Don't forget the appraised rental real estate which is worth the entire market cap, and also operating RE that is worth many multiples of mcap too. Wrote this one up. It's illiquid. Not suitable for most. Bigger than average basket bet for me.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@BernieZhang9 Ragnarok 3 def has some nostalgia hype. I'll probably try it (used to run my own RO private server in high school!)

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

Clark Square Capital @ClarkSquareCap

5 days ago

I know I've been a broken record on this one, but I think $GRVY will finally work here

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@stoked_on_waves Not worth the risk. These can pump quite a bit

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

It's cheaper than gungho, but gungho has the activist, but even at today's price I'm not interested in Gungho. Too many employees, single hit game (which will forever cashflow). Best thing they can do is return cash and just let puzzle&dragon cashflow forever. But they got like 1600 employees.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@finphysnerd A lot of people on X seem to really like this company. It doesn't make sense to me. I've said my bit about it. I hope it works out for them.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@TheSpecial1Cap We haven't even seen the new dividend yet! I am very skeptical that capital return at GRVY level will even match Neowiz or other comps in Korea, let alone surpass it by enough to overcome GRVY's worse biz. That's the bet you're making. Could it work out? Maybe! Good luck.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

Gungho has an activist, gravity does not. Why do you think the Gungho activist cares at all about minority investors in their subsidiary? Obviously they don't. It's in the activists best interest to shaft all GRVY minorities in any legal way possible. Extracting value for Gungho is their sole interest.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@TheSpecial1Cap How is disagreeing with someone picking a fight? No one has yet to explain to me why GRVY is more interesting than Neowiz which also a SK gaming company and is 1) cheaper, 2) much better growth, 3) already buying back stock + paying dividends. Own it via parent is even cheaper.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@ShmuelLon @twaddle_inc Only +3.6% ytd. I've posted it before. Was +12% ish in February!

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

Isn't all mispricing relative ? Agree that JP isn't a great analog, but other small Korean gaming companies seem pretty relevant. I do agree that 1x ev/ebit is the wrong price, but when similar kr gaming cos trade cheaper with better cap allocation and better biz, it's tough. The setup could work! Plenty of U.S. investors don't really care about the foreign peers and seeing value trap becomes less value trap despite relative val being worse could still rerate it higher.

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AltayCap @AltayCapital

5 days ago

@ClarkSquareCap Yeah, I was wrong on the dividend. It happens. I'm wrong a lot. We all are! Still curious why you like GRVY more than neowiz (better business, cheaper, dividends, buybacks) and even cheaper via holding co? Or webzen which is deeper value but worse biz.