Andaman Intel @AndamanIntel

Many people are asking how did Kimi K3 catch up so fast to Western models? Simply, a frontier model really only requires compute, data and people. There is no magic secret. A few answers to this question 1. Kimi with help from the Chinese government has thousands if not tens of thousands of experts (lawyers, scientists, doctors, programmers.. etc.) making RL env data every day. A frontier model is RLed on “tasks”. Each one of these tasks needs to be created by either a human or an LLM. Claude did not wake up one day knowing how to use say the Github CLI. He learned how to use the Github CLI in an RL env.  Meta is pursuing this exact same strategy with its Applied AI org and IMO it appears to be working. 2. I have said this before regarding GLM 5.2 - Kimi obviously distilled from GPT 5.5 and Claude Opus. This only eliminated their cold start problem in RL, meaning they skipped say some X number of months in cold start RL. The mass number of RL envs created by their experts is still the most crucial part here, and you cannot attribute Kimi’s success to distillation. Distillation only saved them some time. 3. Agentic coding and frontier LLMs significantly accelerated their research. My hunch is they use proxies to access Claude API and GPT API for their own model development. Claude most likely wrote all their training code. This release leads to some very interesting questions. What happens now in a world in which an almost Fable class model is open sourced and free on July 27th? My view is intelligence / software will become very soon close to free. Chip makers and inference providers are big winners from Kimi’s success.

VERY VERY UNCONVENTIONAL, but this chart could have the makings of an inverted H&S bottom. We do NOT know yet. $BTCUSD

Lyn Alden: Financial repression is the endgame for developed countries with too much debt. They hold interest rates artificially below money supply growth. Sometimes they force people to hold the currency - the US literally banned gold ownership. "For the land of the free, you couldn't own a benign yellow metal because it was competition to what they wanted to do with the currency." Over years and decades they siphon value away and "kind of reset the system." FT @LynAldenContact @PeterMcCormack.

Milk Road @milkroaddaily

2 months ago

Why do people feel poorer even when nothing dramatic has happened? Michael Saylor explains the invisible tax crushing everyone who doesn't own assets. "The currency supply measured in dollars is continuing to expand, probably expanding 7% a year. It's been expanding about 7% a

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“中国高德地图 跨境定位风险：每3秒回传定位资讯、暗藏可追溯使用者代码” 近日，台湾《报导者》团队实测三款导航软件，发现来自中国的高德地图存在明显跨境定位风险，引发隐私和国安争议。 测试人员带着7支手机、2台笔电，在台北市绕行，经过总统府、行政院、立法院、国防部、警政单位等区域，同时监测三类导航软件的封包上传情况：中国高德地图、Google Maps、台湾本土导航软件导航王3D。 结果显示，高德地图平均约每3秒就上传一次高精度 GPS位置资料，频率明显高于另外两款导航软件。 更关键的是，高德地图上传的内容不只是位置。实验显示，封包里还包含陀螺仪、加速度计、屏幕亮度、设备开机时间等手机传感器资讯，并且会传往中国境内服务器。 高德地图封包中，研究人员还发现，发现名为 CAID 的固定识别码。可用于识别使用者。 这个代码在同一台手机上卸载重装高德后仍然不变，只有格式化设备后才会改变。 这次测试是在iOS设备未登录账号的情况下进行。 也就是说，不登录，不代表不被记录。 报道称，高德地图的相关资料会传向中国杭州、上海、南京等地的阿里云服务器。 报道者认为，普通导航 App 收集位置并不奇怪，但高德的问题在于：上传频率高、资料种类细、带有固定设备识别码，并且数据流向中国服务器。

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You are better equipped to deal with stress when you are moving. When you feel tense or frustrated or worried, it is difficult to think your way into feeling better. The more you think about the situation, the larger it becomes in your mind. Trying to think your way out of it often leads to a spiral of overthinking and rumination. The first step is not to think something different, but to do something different. It doesn’t matter what. Stretch on the floor, go for a walk, work on a project. Get out of your mind and move your body.

Gold Cycles are generally the cleanest out there. And I believe Sept will offer up another amazing opportunity to load up again.

Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas

6 months ago

$100 Silver. Gold near $5,000. Miners 4x - 12 months. Congrats if you’ve been on this ride too. A lesson in sitting firm in a Position trade. But now, afford yourself some profit taking/rebalancing.

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The most imposing depictions of Ottoman Empire you're ever going to find on screen can be found in Romanian movies filmed during communist times. A compilation of clips of Ottoman army invading from the movie Stephen the Great - Vaslui 1475 (1975), featuring thousands of extras.

Australian anti-Chinese illustration, 1886.

Common pull-up mistakes ❌

Asset performance since August 2017 #1 +5,220% — Nvidia #2 +3,450% — Micron #3 +1,820% — Broadcom #4 +1,730% — Tesla #5 +1,410% — Bitcoin #6 +1,120% — TSM #7 +680% — Google #8 +670% — Samsung #9 +430% — Nasdaq #10 +330% — Silver #11 +240% — Nikkei #12 +230% — Gold #13 +210% — S&P 500 #14 +82% — Euro Stoxx 50 #15 +37% — China A50

This is called an expanding triangle. Expanding triangles are very common in Bitcoin. They are also typically reliable. The target for expanding triangles is the height projected from the breakout. A move back above 75,000 would change my analysis $BTC

China is seeing massive capital outflows: An estimated $1 trillion in capital flowed out of China in 2025, the largest annual outflow since records began in 2006. Capital outflows have more than DOUBLED since 2021. This comes as Chinese investors have moved funds into overseas equities through offshore brokers, particularly into the US and Hong Kong markets. In response, China imposed restrictions on cross-border stock trading on May 22nd, ordering all illegal accounts to be liquidated within 2 years. Furthermore, the country fined three offshore online brokers, Hong Kong-based Futu, Singapore-based Tiger Brokers and Longbridge Securities, a combined $330 million for offering Chinese investors access to foreign stock markets without regulatory approval. China is tightening capital controls as outflows intensify.

Der 100-Jahre-Plan für den Aktienmarkt Wenn du dir die letzten 100 Jahre anschaust, siehst du ein klares Muster: Der Markt wiederholt immer wieder die gleichen Zyklen. Seit der Großen Depression 1930 gab es drei große Abwärtsphasen und drei Aufwärtsphasen . Wir stecken gerade mitten im dritten großen Bullenmarkt. Die schlechten Zeiten (Bärenmärkte) Diese Phasen dauerten meistens etwa 9 Jahre (die Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1930 war mit 12 Jahren eine Ausnahme). Ein typisches Zeichen war, dass der Markt zweimal oben und zweimal unten „anklopfte“, bevor es wieder aufwärts ging. Oft krachte der Kurs bis zu einer bestimmten langfristigen Linie (dem 300er-Schnitt im Monatschart) und startete von dort aus neu durch. Die guten Zeiten (Bullenmärkte) Die ersten beiden großen Aufwärtsphasen dauerten jeweils 24 und 25 Jahre. Das Spannende: Sobald der Markt einmal Fahrt aufgenommen hatte, fiel er fast nie unter eine bestimmte grüne Linie (den 100er-Schnitt). Die blaue Linie (50er-Schnitt) war dabei immer die beste Chance, um günstig nachzukaufen, wenn es mal zwischendurch ruckelte. Warum steigt der Markt so extrem? Hinter jedem Bullenmarkt steckt eine neue Technologie: Früher waren es industrielle Durchbrüche. Dann kam der Internet-Boom. Heute erleben wir den E-Commerce- und Social-Media-Boom. Klar, irgendwann platzen diese Blasen immer, weil die Leute übertreiben. Aber die Technik bleibt! Das Internet ist nicht verschwunden, nur weil die Kurse im Jahr 2000 abgestürzt sind – es wurde zum Fundament für alles, was wir heute nutzen. Der KI-Boom Wir sind jetzt im zweiten Teil des aktuellen Aufschwungs, und der wird von der Künstlichen Intelligenz getrieben. Wahrscheinlich wird diese Blase um das Jahr 2034 platzen. Das wird wehtun, aber danach wird KI das feste Rückgrat unserer gesamten Wirtschaft sein. Im Grunde sind die letzten 100 Jahre eine Kette von Erfindungen, die die Kurse immer höher treiben. Die Abstürze zwischendurch sind nur dazu da, die heiße Luft rauszulassen und Platz für neues Geld und die nächste Technologie zu machen. Was bedeutet das für dich heute? Wenn dieser Zyklus so läuft wie die letzten beiden, könnte der S&P 500 bis auf 17.000 Punkte steigen. Es wird zwischendurch immer wieder Korrekturen geben. Der Zoll-Crash Anfang 2025 war so ein Moment, hat aber die wichtige blaue Linie nicht ganz berührt. Schau auf den RSI-Anzeiger. Wenn der unter 30 fällt, ist das eine Chance des Jahrzehnts. Das ist in 100 Jahren erst sechsmal passiert – und jedes Mal war es der perfekte Zeitpunkt zum Kaufen. Liken, Folgen, Speichern, Kommentieren, Teilen. Danke für den Support 🫶😊🫶

Chinese society runs on a value system totally unlike that of the West. Loyalty to emperors or presidents is essentially performative — unless the ruler has shown you personal favor. Private morality is infinitely more important than public morality.

40 months into the Gold bull market, a mid-cycle pause and consolidation is likely developing. 48 months marks the midpoint which is towards the Nov window. Lot of confluence in that area across many asset classes.

That time in 2004, when 50 Cent and his G-Unit members traveled to Iraq to perform for U.S. troops stationed there during the Iraq War, boosting morale in an active combat zone.

Always remember this

Young traders. The goal of trading is to "keep it" (meaning profits). Making it means nothing unless you learn how to consolidate your gains. Riding some rocket up and then crashing on the same rocket -- that is not smart trading. Stay long enough and it is EASY to make money in speculative markets - commodities, crypto, high flying equities. The HARD part is keeping it. Next time you catch a rocket ride, REMEMBER, rockets run on fuel, and the longer a rocket flies the less fuel it still has on board. Having gains for many traders makes them even more bullish on their chosen asset. They buy more -- and end up buying the top. My advice -- do not pyramid and sell small amounts on the way up That is my advice for the day

I am not against Buy and Hold in equities and stronger equivalent HODL in cryptocurrencies. But even very long-term decisions should have an uncle point. When you are seeing a buy and hold strategy on MSFT or WMT or BTCUSD succeeding, you are actually exposed to survivorship bias. There are many tickers that were held in portfolios for the long-term that doesn't exist anymore. So even when you are in for the long-term, decide what is an indicator for you to say this plan is not working...