_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility Newsletter https://t.co/omfQHUqMjb Onchain Analyst @_checkonchain Charting Suite https://t.co/5DH6Z9lWT1 checkonchain.com UTXO Joined January 2018

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

3 days ago

@SidSuri @_checkonchain @saylor It's not a $40B market cap company mate, it's a $64B bid to date, larger than the ETFs in all-time net inflows. I think we disagree on how the market perceives the situation, which is fine. Let's leave it here. Thanks for the chat.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

3 days ago

We're in the later stages of a bear, this is the time when demand for BTC is the least strong, by definition. The firms recent decisions to create risk, and paint targets for the market, at this time, are sub-optimal to say the least. None of this is an issue if BTC prices are rallying. They are not, which means the two systems are anchored together more so than usual.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

6 days ago

Saylor's Sticky Situation My write up assessing the STRC sell-off, and what I think it means for Strategy and Bitcoin is live for @_checkonchain subscribers. newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/saylors-stic…

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

3 days ago

Appreciate the lengthy post, but I still don't think you're correctly reading my critique. I am not suggesting any issue with the 4%. Please remove that idea from the dialogue. I am saying that the market is clearly concerned that the firm has pushed their leverage, AND depleted their cash reserves, at the exact moment when their tools to finance are the least effective. - Prefs are below par, can't sell them. - MSTR mNAV is barely above 1, but will be the punching bag anyway. - BTC sales would be terrible for brand + market is already depressed. The market is trying to price the worry of how many coins the firm may be pressured into liquidating. BTC prices sideways deplete months of cash reserve. BTC down further makes a lot of their problems very accute. The market is pricing in the uncertainty of how much will need to be sold, as their toolbox is very limited.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

3 days ago

@RenshuBTC @_checkonchain Keen to hear your counter points.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

4 days ago

@SidSuri @_checkonchain @saylor For clarity, I am not saying they own too much. I am saying the market is uncertain how much of it they will need to liquidate, when, at what price, and into what level of demand. The risk is how much they may need to sell, not how much they own. A function of leverage.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

4 days ago

@SidSuri @_checkonchain @saylor If you don't believe the market sees the current risk of how much the firm will need to liquidate to satisfy their obligations as a genuine overhang, I'm not sure what to tell you. It is absolutely a key (but not only) reason why capital is being held back at this time.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

4 days ago

@shmmmmity @ki_young_ju The replies below answer your question.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

5 days ago

@SidSuri @_checkonchain My point was not that they own too much of it.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

5 days ago

@AvidCommentator Costs.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

5 days ago

@HodlMagoo @_checkonchain Similar end scene.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

6 days ago

@CavanXy @_checkonchain Thank you mate, you too!

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

6 days ago

@LoseMyPain @ableinch @RoaringRagnar Last year I was the only one documenting the extraordinary sell-side by HODLers, and Check the Bear emerged on 16-Oct. Early this year I have been documenting the move to 60k as my base case on repeat. Would you like to be a bit more specific, please? newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/on-the-cusp

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

6 days ago

@ableinch @LoseMyPain @RoaringRagnar Thank you mate. Folks often pull soundbites from a podcast, and mistake it for the full meal.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

6 days ago

@philostamm @LoseMyPain @RoaringRagnar Thank you.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

a week ago

@TailEdging The STH cohort changes at the extremes, and MVRV and SOPR just describe their behaviour. So both metrics increasingly describe speculators at tops and HODLers at bottoms.

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Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan

a week ago

Ya'll asked... I listened. I'm officially kicking off a weekly newsletter for anyone that wants to stay up to date with the most recent changes across the Bitcoin sentiment landscape. First issue is live! sentimentsully.substack.com/p/bitcoin-sent…

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

2 weeks ago

@thebrouss @titcoinpodcast @SullyMichaelvan @WalkerAmerica Sure, and if you had have listened to what I said in the podcast, I talked through that probability and scenario too. If you're going to have an opinion of my views, try listening to them first.