AnyoneBut @AnyoneButInv

"There Are No Signs of Buying the Crisis. The Buy-Side Liquidity That Defined the Bull Market Is Gone." 1. "Market Maker Netflow" If you look at the "Market Maker Netflow" data, selling pressure had already begun increasing well before Bitcoin reached its peak. Even today, the broader trend remains net selling. (Chart 1, blue box) This is in complete contrast to what we observed during the bull market. 2. "Is the current fear really being treated as an accumulation opportunity?" Even during the previous bull cycle, there were several periods of Extreme Fear. However, those periods were accompanied by clear signs of accumulation. (Chart 2, yellow line) So what about today? The situation is completely different. Instead of seeing buying activity increase during fear, buy-side liquidity continues to weaken. (Chart 2, red line) 3. "Who absorbed the selling pressure during the bull market?" Strong waves of selling also appeared during corrections in the previous bull cycle. (Chart 3, orange box) So why didn't the market collapse? Because there was abundant buy-side liquidity across the market. More importantly, institutions and large buyers quietly absorbed that selling pressure through the OTC market. This can be clearly seen in the OTC Buy-Side Liquidity Flow data. (Chart 4, orange box) What about today? Today, liquidity has largely dried up. More importantly, there is virtually no evidence that market participants are treating this downturn as a buying opportunity. 4. This is why I don't believe it's time to become aggressive. If this were truly one of those moments described by the old market saying, "Buy when there's fear," then we should be able to see clear evidence of accumulation in the data. If that evidence existed, I could reasonably interpret this area as either a local bottom or at least the "knee" of a correction an area where downside remains within a predictable range. But the data simply doesn't support that conclusion. That's why I don't believe this is the right time to make aggressive price predictions or aggressively increase exposure.

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mignolet @mignoletkr

a month ago

If all of these recent market zones were truly “buy the fear” opportunities, then large players would likely be quietly accumulating Bitcoin through OTC markets. But that is not what we are seeing right now. In reality, aside from MSTR, OTC demand has largely dried up. And the

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“Whats wrong babe, you haven’t touched my excess compute?”

$SIVE (ai분석) 왜 Pareto가 180일 락업을 면제해줬을까? 이게 핵심 질문이죠. 공식적으로는 “Manager가 면제해줬다”고만 나와 있지만, 시장에서는 아래 이유로 해석합니다: 1. 강력한 기관 수요가 즉시 들어왔다
Bookbuilding을 시작하자마자 수요가 폭발적으로 몰려서, 지금 잡지 않으면 놓칠 수 있는 기회였을 가능성이 큽니다. 기관들이 “지금 들어가고 싶다”고 적극적으로 밀어붙였을 거예요. 2. 자금 수요가 정말 시급하고 명확하다
공시된 사용처가 정확히 InP 레이저·광증폭기 생산능력 확장입니다. • AI 데이터센터용 광통신 수요 급증 • Automotive LIDAR 파이프라인 확대
이 두 시장에서 실제 주문/파이프라인이 빠르게 커지고 있어서, 생산 capacity를 지금 당장 늘리지 않으면 기회를 놓칠 수 있는 상황으로 보입니다. 3. 4월에 이미 한 번 조달했는데 또 하는 이유
4월에 1.25억 SEK 조달했을 때보다 파이프라인이 훨씬 더 커졌다는 의미예요. (이전 보고서에서 opportunity pipeline이 크게 증가했다고 언급됐습니다)
소규모 조달 → 이제 규모 있는 capex가 필요해진 단계로 판단한 것 같습니다. 제 종합 의견 • 단기: 희석 + 할인으로 주가 압력 있을 수 있음 (오늘 장 초반 주의) • 중장기: 긍정적.
기관들이 대규모로 들어왔다는 건 “이 회사의 성장 스토리를 믿는다”는 강력한 신호예요. 특히 AI photonics 쪽에서 실제 수요가 뒷받침되고 있다는 방증이 될 수 있습니다. Pareto가 면제를 해준 건 회사에 불리한 게 아니라, 수요가 워낙 좋고 자금 사용처가 명확해서 기회를 놓치지 않기 위한 판단으로 보입니다. “고객 주문이 너무 촉박해서”라기보다는 성장 기회를 놓치지 않기 위해 미리 capacity를 확보하려는 선제적 움직임에 가깝습니다.

Simona @Simipandaface

a day ago

$SIVE dropped 600m SEK directed share issue after hours for institutions only. -Accelerated bookbuilding TONIGHT. We will know more tomorrow morning. -Short term dilution vs long-term institutional validation and capital lock is fine... -my thoughts: they did a directed share

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우리 모두 빨간눈(Redeye)으로 $sive 반등 째려보자

SoFire @Sofigoodboy

16 hours ago

Redeye가 $sive 목표주가 68 SEK 으로 '상향' 조정

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Let's talk about $SIVE CEO, Vickram and his purchase of his laser company on March 3rd and why the 180 restriction was broken mutually by Pareto Securities and SIVE. Looking extremely forward now to August 6th Because when you connect it to everything that has happened since, the sequencing is hard to ignore. March 3 2026. CEO Vickram Vathulya goes into the open market and personally buys 160,000 shares at 3.02 SEK per share. Not options. Not a directed issue at a discount. Open market. His own money. April 16 2026. $SIVE completes a directed share issue raising 125 million SEK. As part of that raise the company formally committed to a 180 day lock up. No new shares until mid October 2026 at the earliest.... hmmmmm Now today on June 30 2026. Today. $SIVE announces a 600 million SEK directed share issue. Almost five times bigger than the April raise. To do this Pareto Securities, the same bank that ran the April raise and held that 180 day restriction, had to formally waive the lock up early. Pareto does not waive a 180 day lock up as a favour. They waive it because the company gave them a compelling enough reason that the new raise is worth doing now and not in October. The raise is specifically to expand InP laser manufacturing capacity for AI datacenter and Automotive LiDAR demand. The pipeline has already surged 77 percent since the start of the year to $799 million. You do not raise 600 million SEK to build capacity for demand that does not exist yet. Now connect this back to everything we have been mapping. The LiDAR ramp with confirmed Q4 2026 timeline. The $POET and Lumilens CPO chain with engineering samples due late 2026 and production ramp aligned to hyperscaler deployments in 2027. The $GFS SCALE platform with $SIVE lasers baked into the reference design and volume ramp expected in 2027. The Fortune 100 wearable customer that has been approaching volume phase since at least January 2024. $JBL with 1.6T lasers listed on their own website. $ENA and O-Net building the external light source modules around $SIVE lasers. Management standing by its revenue growth plan for 2026 with the second half expected to deliver the bulk of the momentum. A CEO who bought stock at 3 SEK with his own money, locked himself up for 90 days, then let the company raise 600 million SEK by breaking a 180 day restriction early is not doing that because nothing is happening. This is speculative. Nothing is confirmed. The risks are real including short seller reports, securities investigations, and revenue that still needs to show up in a filing. But the sequencing of these moves does not look like a company managing a quiet period. It looks like a company getting ready for something. Watch August 6. That is the half year earnings report and the next moment management has to show whether any of this pipeline has actually converted. . $SIVE $POET $GFS $JBL $ENA

廃業を決めました… 理由は、AIです。 税理士の仕事は、もうAIで代替可能です。 書類をポンとAIに投げれば完璧な申告書ができます。 今月の仕事依頼はゼロです。 何十年と積み上げてきた専門知識が、こんな形で必要とされなくなるとは思いませんでした。 税理士法で、AIによる申告書作成に何らかの歯止めをかけるべきだと思います。 このままでは、同じ道をたどる士業がどんどん増えるはずです。 私がやるべきことは反ＡＩの活動をすること。 早速、やるべきことをＡＩに聞きます。

OMG! $SIVE increased raise to 700M SEK (from 600M SEK) due to investors demanding more shares 😲 Sivers Semiconductors just pulled a bigger cash raise. Big investment funds wanted more shares that they actually had to increase the size of the deal to fit it all in. Why this is incredibly bullish: - The deal was "oversubscribed," meaning investors literally fought over a limited pool of shares. Clear smart money validation. - Shares were sold at a tiny 9.7% discount (57 SEK) which means $SIVE held power and didn't have to beg for cash. - The raise helps fund expansion for their high-demand AI laser chips and de-risks their balance sheet. - The fear of the surprise cash raise is over in less than 24 hours, since tomorrow all new shares will be issued.

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Athu @athuinvests

a day ago

⚡️ JUST IN: $SIVE is raising $600M through the issue of new shares to expand manufacturing capacity for its lasers and optical amplifiers. Estimated immediate dilution ~3% and cannot exceed 15% (maximum). Definitely a good sign, as they are expanding capacity given high demand

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세이프티 모니터가 앉아는 있지만 하는 일은 없다 왜냐하면 할 수 있는게 없기 때문이다

Every year we get our consortium style initiative around a stablecoin, we have seen this with Diem, Global dollar and now Open USD. While the set of players here is obviously potent, I remain highly skeptical any of these initiatives can hit scale. A few thoughts on OpenUSD: 1. Liquidity and the cold-start problem. USDC and USDT have massive network effects across exchanges, payment processors, and brokers. This is always repeated but it's true, there are no BTC/sofiUSD pairs to trade on any of these exchanges or markets. These are not stableocin market makers and participants are willing to hold in size, as you can’t really use them anywhere. The fair counter is that crypto markets will be far smaller than remittances or equities/bonds. Probably true, I suspect in the medium term, but those markets are still converging on the same stablecoins. Hyperliquid just struck a massive deal with USDC/Coinbase. Every tokenization initiative so far is built around the incumbents too. 2. A consortium of 500 rivals has no precedent for working. The pace of decision-making across 500 competitors is going to be glacial. Not everyone gets a board seat at Open Standard I imagine, so what happens when decisions cut against some of the players? Circle and Tether ship whatever they want, whenever they want, with zero commitment to anyone. 3. Regulatory and antitrust risk at scale. Circle and Tether are willing to absorb enormous pressure, they have being doing so for years. They hold hundreds of licenses they can use to arbitrage markets, Yes GENIUS act gave a lot of breathing room and clarity, but oversees, this is not the same story. The moment this gets hard under regulatory pressure, I think a lot of these partners just walk away. And a bloc of the largest banks and card networks jointly issuing money is an obvious antitrust target. 4. The "socialist" economics starve the issuer. Passing reserve revenue back to partners sounds great in practice, but what does Open Standard actually operate on? Little to no retained capital. People forget Circle doesn't just have marketplace/exchange partnerships; it funds a whole web of rebates across on/off ramps, stablecoin settlement, OTC desks, and more, with each deal being somewhat bespoke depending not he partner. Who funds that at Open Standard? Who decides which deals, on what terms, especially when the counterparty is a rival of an existing member? Circle GAAP Opex for 2025 were 900M USD, if you strip out one time cost and IPO related cost, its adjusted OPEX is closer to 500M annually. Let’s say open Standard gets 25 bips, which is what other consortium did, At 10B of supply, open standard is making 25M a year… You don’t fund much with that…. You need to become huge very quickly. 5. The announcement is basically a giant LOI. Read the quotes: BlackRock calls it "a constructive step," BNY "looks forward to exploring ways to support," others say it's "interesting." Meanwhile the partners are backing rivals: Stripe owns Bridge and has its own stack, Coinbase is wedded to USDC, banks are building their own deposit tokens, and the card networks support every token out there. They'll hedge across all of them. Distribution only matters if it's exclusive — and it clearly won't be. 6. The "mint/redeem fees are a problem" claim is wrong. In practice every large institution minting and redeeming through Circle and Tether already gets big rebates. The real cost of moving money is FX, not mint/redeem and there's no moat there, because anyone can just match free mint/redeem. All in all: one to monitor, but I'm deeply skeptical that an organization that looks like a DAO of 500 companies can move fast enough to matter long term. Who decides go-to-market? Capital allocation? Anything? Ultimately this reminds me of the DAO experiment. The pitch was identical: no single owner, "neutral" governance, aligned incentives, decisions made collectively for the good of the network. In practice DAOs almost universally failed at the thing that actually matters: shipping. Governance turned into endless forum debates and token-weighted voting where nothing decisive got done, capital sat idle because no one could agree how to deploy it, and the projects that won were the ones with a clear owner willing to move fast and take risk. "Owned by everyone" almost always means accountable to no one. Open Standard is a DAO of competitors that are not really committed to anything, and I'd bet on the two operators who can ship unilaterally over a committee that has to ask 500 rivals for permission.

Open Standard @openstandard

a day ago

Introducing Open USD: a stablecoin built for the internet economy, designed by the businesses growing it. joinopenstandard.com/blog/introduci…

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$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership. My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors. This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GFS on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support. Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment). A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.

This week Sharplink acquired 10,000 ETH, bringing total holdings to 886,725 ETH (worth ~$1.4B at today's ETH price of $1,570). We also repurchased 2,132,773 shares for roughly $10M at an average price of $4.69, part of our buyback program that has now repurchased 4,071,223 common shares since August 2025. Acquire ETH. Buy back stock when it is undervalued. This is Ethereum with an edge. globenewswire.com/news-release/2…

@ETH_MAXER LFG!!!!!

BMNR has multi-layer options. ETH appreciation is the base layer and it is not exhaustive. It has strategic investments (Eightco, MrBeast), equity investments (Lighter), ETH Labs support, and derivatives operations as options. And I love convex options pretty much.

언성재 @ETH_MAXER

2 days ago

이게 참 핵심을 찌르는 질문이신듯. DAT가 ETF랑 다를게 뭐임? 시장이 DAT 너네한테 프리미엄을 줘야되는 이유가 뭐임? 갑자기 글이 좀 쓰고 싶어져서 비트마인 억빠 다 빼고, 오랜만에 솔직하게 적어볼게요. 편의상 반말 씀. ㅇㅇ 자 먼저 프리미엄을 줘야되는 이유에 대한 답을 먼저 하면? 주당

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Tesla has just announced that they have begun testing production Cybercabs with no steering wheel or pedals on public roads in Austin! Let's goooooo

"It's almost ironic. Today ETH has the worst properties of any asset in the Ethereum ecosystem" Ansgar Dietrichs on ETH's overlooked interop problem "There are many assets that can directly teleport from chain to chain. If you use USDC via CCTP, you can instantly hop from one chain to the next. With your ETH, you cannot" "That seems like a problem. How is it that ETH, the native asset of the system, does not have the best properties? If I design my markets, it's much more convenient to base everything off of the assets that have the most convenient properties available" "In some places it's as simple as making sure that ETH is a first class citizen as we look at the Ethereum ecosystem as a whole"

Laura Shin @laurashin

2 days ago

Ethlabs: The New Lab Built to Rival the EF x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

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@ETH_MAXER @ganziboy11 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ 아 이름비슷하다고 같이 올라주면 참 좋겠는데 ~~

What is your relationship with the Ethereum Foundation?

What about ETH?

What will you work on?