Axis Balance @Axis_Balance

Kevin, I have to disagree with you here, at least when I look at the long-term history of the Miners/Gold ratio. The broader trend of the ratio has been declining for decades, so I’m more cautious about assuming miners will sustain a 2x outperformance versus gold. I agree that 0.0377 looks like a reasonable first target on your chart, but personally I wouldn’t project much beyond that level yet. Just my subjective view based on the long-term structure.

Two months later, my outlook remains unchanged. I still expect equities to form a local top this month, followed by a correction of around 20% into Q4. We’ll soon find out. Do you think the market has one more push higher before the correction begins? $SPX $SPY

Axis Balance @Axis_Balance

2 months ago

My outlook remains unchanged. A larger correction remains my base case for Q4 2026. The timing would align with the later stages of the presidential cycle, when volatility has historically tended to increase. The 4-year EMA and rising trendline remain the key levels to watch.

1 5 26 23K 17

I agree that energy remains the foundation of the global economy. After years of underinvestment, even a modest demand surprise could have a meaningful impact on the sector. That’s one of the reasons I remain constructive on the long-term commodity cycle. Out of curiosity, where do you think we are in the current equity cycle? Do you see the AI-driven bull market continuing for several more years, or do you think the secular peak is much closer?

Energy is getting another chance. Since 2008, Energy has underperformed Tech by roughly 95%. Today, the $XLE vs $QQQ ratio is once again testing a secular downtrend and the 4-year EMA. This is where long-term trends often begin to change. A confirmed breakout wouldn’t just be bullish for energy. It could signal the early stages of a much broader capital rotation out of technology and into commodities. Are we witnessing the beginning of a secular trend reversal?

@IrishInvestor I completely agree. That’s one of the reasons I remain constructive on the entire commodity complex, not just precious metals. Energy has historically played a major role in every major commodity bull market.

I largely agree. Time in the market matters, but so does understanding where you are in the secular cycle. That’s why I focus on long-term technical structures. Today’s AI-driven rally shares several characteristics with the late stages of the Dot-com cycle not as a prediction, but as a historical analogue worth studying.

I largely agree. My CRB/S&P 500 chart suggests the relative trend may already be turning in favor of commodities after decades of equity outperformance. Historically, these secular rotations don’t last months — they often last years. That’s one of the key reasons I’m constructive on hard assets over the long term.

@AXx8777 That’s a fair point. I don’t rely on Elliott Wave, but I respect it as one approach. My thesis is built around long-term chart structures, intermarket ratios, and secular cycles. The market will ultimately decide.

$Gold is running out of room. Volatility is coming. Gold has been consolidating between $3,960 and $4,200 for nearly a month. The longer price remains trapped in this range, the more meaningful the eventual breakout is likely to be. Scenario 1: • A weekly close below the $3,930-4,025 support zone would be a significant bearish signal, opening the door toward the lower boundary of the long-term channel around $3,500. Scenario 2 (my base case): • A breakout and weekly close above $4,200 would suggest buyers are regaining control. The next key hurdles would be the 200-day EMA and the resistance zone around $4,380. We shouldn’t have to wait much longer. This compression is unlikely to last. Which scenario do you think plays out first: a breakdown toward $3,500 or a breakout back above $4,200?

@AXx8777 I think gold has a good chance of making a new all-time high over the coming quarters. Silver is a different story. In my view, it still needs more time to build a solid base before the next leg higher.

Most investors focus on price. I also focus on time. Time is often the hardest part of every secular bull market. It creates doubt, tests conviction, and drives emotional decision-making. Look at Silver’s previous secular advance. After breaking above its multi-decade resistance and setting a local high in 1968, silver spent more than four years consolidating before beginning the next major leg higher. Following that advance and the 1974 cycle peak, the market entered another consolidation phase that lasted roughly four years before its final parabolic move into the 1980 secular peak. I’m not arguing that the current cycle must follow the same timeline. Every secular bull market is different. $Silver has already corrected by more than 50% from its recent high, and the market may never revisit the ~$48 support zone. The message is different. Major secular bull markets often require time, not just price, to build a durable base for the next leg higher. Patience is often one of the most valuable assets an investor can have.

@BullTheoryio Exceptional results. My base case remains the same: I think equities are approaching a local peak this August, followed by a midterm-year correction of around 20%. If that plays out, even the strongest companies are unlikely to be immune. It should be an interesting few months.

@badcharts1 It certainly can. As long as the $55 support holds, I see a rebound toward $70. Beyond that, I think silver needs a longer consolidation phase after making new highs possibly 2–3 years, based on previous cycles. 👇

Stocks don’t have to crash for this ratio to mean-revert. The S&P 500 / U.S. Median House Price Ratio is approaching the upper boundary of its long-term secular channel. Previous peaks in 1972 and 2000 were followed by declines of roughly 65% in the ratio over the following decade. Historically, similar extremes have preceded major capital rotations away from financial assets and toward tangible assets. Why does my secular channel begin after 1971? Many secular channels start in 1929. I intentionally begin mine after the 1971 Nixon Shock, which marked the beginning of the modern fiat monetary system. I believe long-term technical structures should be analyzed within the same monetary regime rather than across two fundamentally different systems. The projected path is a historical analogue, not a forecast. 📖 A full breakdown of the Late Cycle thesis is available on my Substack (link in bio). #SP500 vs #Housing

@silvertrucker21 I think we’re looking at a very similar roadmap. I’m always open to updating it as new data comes in. But the bigger picture a final leg higher in equities followed by a secular rotation into commodities is still my base case.

The S&P 500 is approaching a level that has only been seen a handful of times since 1971. Since the end of the Gold Standard, every major move this far above the 30-year EMA has eventually been followed by a prolonged reset. I’m not saying history will repeat exactly. The purple path is illustrative, not a forecast. My point is simple: Markets move in secular cycles. Extreme optimism is eventually followed by capital rotation. The question isn’t whether AI changes the world. The question is whether today’s valuations already reflect that future. I explore this secular cycle in much greater detail in this week’s Substack (link in my bio). Do you think this cycle ends like 2000 or is AI creating a completely different outcome?

@silvertrucker21 That’s very close to my thinking. I also expect equities to make one final push before a prolonged bear market creates much better long-term opportunities. The exact timing may differ, but the broader cycle is what matters most.

@IrishInvestor Personally, I wouldn’t wait for $50. I think anything below $60 already offers attractive long-term value.

$Silver is sitting on a level that has taken 45 years to build. After breaking above its 45-year resistance earlier this year, silver is now testing that same level as support. So far, buyers continue to defend it. My base case: •Hold above the breakout support. •Reclaim the 200-day EMA (~$63). •Then target the $67.7–70 resistance zone. Losing the 45-year breakout level on a monthly closing basis would invalidate this bullish structure. Do you think this is a successful retest, or is silver setting up for a deeper correction?

@IrishInvestor For traders, maybe. But for long-term investors, I think anything below $60 is a great price.

@IrishInvestor Absolutely. I think anything below $60 looks attractive from a long-term perspective.

Profit margins rarely stay at extremes forever. That’s one reason I’m watching the broader secular cycle so closely. Historically, periods of peak optimism, record profitability, and stretched valuations have often preceded major market resets and capital rotation. My latest chart illustrates that long-term perspective. 👇

@JoshBaskin20634 That’s certainly a possibility. The debt and leverage backdrop is unlike anything we’ve seen before, which is exactly why I don’t expect this cycle to be a perfect repeat of 2000. History rhymes, but every cycle has its own catalyst.