Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel
Jay is Senior Market Analyst at https://t.co/BNBZdQZHaj and author of Seasonal Stock Market Trends (Wiley). Trader, writer, instructor and former CTA. Illinois Joined June 2010-
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The "Summer Rally." What will happen in any given year? Who knows. BUT the history is what it is. @sentimentrader
July gets the headline. Historically, the cleaner seasonal window has been the last 3 trading days of June and the first 9 trading days of July.
Another relevant question is "Should you stay invested in a market like this?" Or should you seek better returns elsewhere? Commodities, bond, cash?
$SPY annualized real returns: • 1929–1942: -0.9% per year • 1968–1982: -0.3% per year • 2000–2012: -0.7% per year They were periods where investors earned negative returns after inflation for more than a decade. Could you stay invested through a market like this?
As the U.S. Dollar rallies to a 15-month high, am I betting against it? No. BUT IF it drops back below its March 2026 high, will I contemplate playing the short side? Yes. @sentimentrader
Could crude oil still "pop" unexpectedly? Of course. BUT history suggests something else for the months ahead. @sentimentrader
Call me paranoid, but I never like to see this kind of headline. I'll take the "Wall of Worry" any day...
@joe365ppm @sentimentrader Oops. You are correct! Thanks for the heads up.
The stuff I follow for stocks is still bullish, so I am still bullish. BUT some warning alerts are starting to form. 50-week MA of Consumer Confidence–Stocks Up (over next 12 months) is creeping back into 2007-08 territory. NOT a “Sell” signal. But worthy of note. @sentimentrader
@tivoboy @Shepdog69138782 In a way. But this is more about diversifying among entry and exit criteria than the number of assets held. When I was a CTA, we had essentially long, intermediate, and short-term models. So my position in say, t-bonds, could be long 3, long 2, long 1, flat, or short 1, 2 or 3.
@tivoboy The two risks in trading are a) Losing a lot, b) Quitting your strategy before it pays off. The goal of combining uncorrelated strategies (IMO) is to reduce the volatility of the fluctuations in equity to a degree that significantly diminishes the risk of a or b.
Agree 100%. Combining 3 uncorrelated strategies (which are objective and each has positive expectation) is much better than looking for the "Holy Grail."
Stop hunting for the single best strategy. Own three good ones that don't move together. Higher Sharpe than any one piece. Shallower drawdowns than most of them. The blend does the smoothing.
No guarantee that the unleaded gas price will fall in the months ahead. BUT, we certainly shouldn't be surprised if it does. @sentimentrader
Now more than, well, ever: Jay's Trading Maxim #18: Follow the trend, but DO NOT fall in love with the trend.
🇺🇸 Valuations US stocks are priced for perfection, with valuations back in territory that has a habit of ending badly. Calling the turn is never easy, but when markets run this hot, even a modest slip in fundamentals can hit hard 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ h/t @dailychartbook
Could Crude Oil drift higher in the months ahead? Of course. BUT FWIW, our Crude Oil sentiment indicator suggests lower prices 6-12 months from now. @sentimentrader
International vs. U.S. stocks. Int'l: a) Broke out to the upside b) Pulled back c) Tested 50-week ratio MA d) Ticked higher No predictions, just note that trends in this relationship typically last for years. NOW is the time to pay attention to this relationship. @sentimentrader
My latest research on inflation and stocks. users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppels… Are stocks "doomed" solely because of inflation? No. Is the current status favorable for stocks? Also No. @sentimentrader
Both wholesale and consumer inflation just moved outside their normal ranges. Since 1922, the S&P 500 rose only 36% of the time during these periods. A dollar invested only during these periods since 1922 lost 90.8%. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppels…
3 NASDAQ Hindenburg Omens in 3 days: An “OMG, SELL EVERYTHING!!!” signal? No. A warning of potentially below-average results over the next 2 to 6 months? Yes. React as you see fit. @sentimentrader
Seasonality is "Climate, not weather" (Rick Santolli). That said, $TLT Trading Day of Year #110 to #124 (close of 6/10 thru close of 7/1) UP 12 years in a row. Lucky 13? We’ll see. @sentimentrader
My take on valuation: a) If you are panicking over this chart you are making a mistake b) If you are completely dismissing this chart as meaningless, you are also making a mistake c) Valuation does not matter at all typically... d) ...Until it does - and THEN it matters a lot
"At the end of May, the average of the four is [185%], the highest level in history. For a twelfth straight month, the average is more than 3 standard deviations above its historical mean, signaling a deeply overvalued market." CFP's: "Buy more stocks!" The same chorus of
Are international stocks doomed to decline between now and late June? Of course not. But, um, that would seem to be the way to bet. @sentimentrader
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