Gerward @Gerward4

share.google/X7ioFxJg5TMn51… Connie Chan's congressional platform in one word: NO. No to new housing. No to transit improvements. No to Sunset Dunes and JFK Promenade. Mine is one word too: YES. Yes to building a fun and affordable city, with plenty of housing for future generations.

@Mads_on_X @MarvinTBaumann If you include services in the trade deficit, it is more balanced. A lot of modern tech is a service, from AI to an European firm using SpaceX to launch a satellite or using Starlink.

@rdomenechv @Ph_Aghion @a_bergeaud @lugaricano Serious question or misunderstanding. Does this mean that Europe can have say 75% of US living standards now and in the future, profiting from US productivity growth and still fund the welfare state, military etc.?

@kingofthecoastt That also means that if the US would be like Europe that both Europe and the US would be poorer than Europe as is now

@kingofthecoastt There is something really weird in the whole argument. Suppose that Krugman is right, it essentially means that Europe is free riding and that that is a better position to be in than the US.

@benbawan I can see that some regulations can push up cost of childcare. You could increase productivity by more children per employee. For the rest it seems difficult to change productivity in childcare. Healthcare is affected by way more than Baumol, though it for sure plays a role.

@benbawan I'm sure it isn't perfect. It also excludes collective benefits like defense or public R&D. However, GDP can also be inflated by being a tax heaven, shifting of or high corporate profits or by exporting a lot

@benbawan Asked Gemni about AIC PPP, citing: "Most economists consider this one of the most accurate ways to measure material well-being because it captures the total resources available to a person, regardless of whether those resources are bought privately or provided by the state."

@benbawan The "forcing to pay more" for a product where productivity increases happens because the rest of the economy becomes more productive and can pay there employees more. If you refuse to increase the salaries of teachers you will get a shortage. So you are "forced" to pay them more

@benbawan So indirectly the childcare cost comparison just tells that economy A is richer than economy B. So, basically using Baumols cost disease argument to compare productivity levels between 2 countries. As a kind of poor man type of measurement

@benbawan On a more relevant note, it would be interesting to see this data in terms of real disposable income correct for services in kind, like here for a single year: x.com/i/status/19829…

Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil

8 months ago

How rich are American workers? Very! After accounting for taxes, transfers, cost of living differences and so on, American workers make far more than their counterparts across the OECD.

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@benbawan Childcare is an example of almost pure Baumol effect, quality and productivity most likely don't improve. So if real cost of childcare in economy A increases 3x and in B just 20%, that is a strong indication that productivity in economy A went up a lot compared to economy B.

@JesseJenkins @hausfath Why does it seem that red states, with exceptions, seem to do be better on this map? Is there a policy aspect to it?

@sabben Can it be that European companies are just less good? So that investors invest less in them for mega rounds as the ROI is less? I'm all for EU inc but it's weird to me that Europeans have no issue investing in a Delaware company but fail in say a French one.

@SusanneAydinlik @giulio_mattioli No it's a choice, by shutting down nuclear in Germany. (Despite many warnings and the non scientific arguments). There is also a lot of shale gas in Europe: oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-…

@joni_askola They know how powerfull the White House is and try to protect their interests but aren't powerfull enough for that. Tarrifs and Immigration restrictions are bad for them, they still happen as the real power is in the state

@MarvinTBaumann That requires first an understanding why American companies managed to get into this position. (Hint: low taxes on labour, flexible labour markets, plenty of capital etc.) Otherwise you just get another Ecosia.

@Afinetheorem What causes the big difference between the table on the right and left in country rankings? It seems the US is way more ahead compared to Germany on the left one.

Dario Amodei just gave his first interview since the Pentagon blacklisted his company. The toll is visible on his face. He was asked one question. What would you say to the President right now? He didn’t hesitate. Amodei: “We are patriotic Americans. Everything we have done has been for the sake of this country.” Anthropic built their models to defend America. They were the first AI lab cleared for classified military systems. They wanted to help the warfighter. But the Pentagon demanded unrestricted access to fully autonomous weapons and mass surveillance of American citizens. Amodei drew the line. The government responded with emergency Cold War powers. A supply chain designation normally reserved for foreign adversaries. A six-month federal phaseout ordered from Truth Social. Amodei: “When we were threatened with supply chain designation and Defense Production Act, which are unprecedented intrusions into the private economy, we exercised our classic First Amendment rights to speak up and disagree with the government.” The administration framed Anthropic’s refusal as anti-American. Amodei’s response dismantled that framing in one sentence. Amodei: “Disagreeing with the government is the most American thing in the world.” Here is the deeper paradox nobody in Washington wants to say out loud. We are in a geopolitical race against autocratic adversaries who use AI for mass surveillance of their own citizens and autonomous weapons with no human oversight. The Pentagon demanded that Anthropic build those exact capabilities for America. Amodei: “The red lines we have drawn, we drew because we believe that crossing those red lines is contrary to American values.” You cannot defeat authoritarianism by adopting its methods. You cannot defend the open society by forcing private companies to build its antithesis under threat of wartime emergency powers. Anthropic held the line. Got blacklisted for it. And came out the other side saying the same thing they said going in. That is what it actually looks like to mean it.