John Wix @JimmyButlerCap
Flows before price, price before news. Trading journal, not financial advice Joined December 2019-
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Terry Smith becoming a momentum bro without understanding momentum is funny. Momentum isn’t just passive flows. Information disseminates unevenly, so price itself becomes a signal: when a stock moves, investors infer others may know something $NXT $GEV $APP
$ARM time to break the 50-day? On the bright side I think there’s value investor support at 200x earnings
Always logical for $ORCL to be red bc it’s a software stock. But when $IGV is green it’s a neocloud and falls anyways. On an 11 day losing streak. Has lost 18 of the last 25 days. Not even the Mets are that bad
Why exit $CRDO here? The volatility makes it almost untradable. I might be wrong but these are the types of bounces that can trap buyers at the worst time. Typically after a headline like last week, the news will find another headline for a 1-2 punch
At some point the volatility in this semi names is on its own a reason for funds not to own them in size? I like $CRDO but what is a risk model going to say about a stock that moves up and down 7% every day?
Weekly trading portfolio update: 7/06 By cost basis & size: $FROG 80.00/13% $PRCH 14.02/10% $SNOW 250.82/10% $FWONK (new) 98.96/9% $ADPT 21.24/7% Cash: 52% Sold: $CRDO +52%, $GFS +26%, $KEEL+ 15%, $ARW +6%
if you spend 30 hrs researching a name are you going to say at the end, “I pass”? 3 hrs should be enough to know the outlines of the story, if there’s an upcoming catalyst, and if it’s cheap or not. Most Substack “deep dives” are just AI anyways
The more you try to deep-dive into a company and force a thesis out of it, the worse your market performance will become. I’ve been doing this long enough to know when bias overtakes logic. Some of my worst losses have been because I tried to force myself to align research
Now hypothetically if I were engaged to Anthropic’s Chief of Staff and bought 19.9% of a data center company called $SHAZ in Australia, is that trading on MNPI? Or am I just “situationally aware”
Anthropic is about to hand out up to $15 billion in Australian data center contracts. Everyone on X is convinced $IREN gets the call. Not long until we find out.
These active ETFs can be pretty funny. Saw strength in defense names like $GD so was checking the top holdings in the $WAR etf and it's just semi beta?
ZUCKERBERG SAYS META'S AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT HASN'T ACCELERATED AS EXPECTED In an internal town hall, Meta $META CEO Mark Zuckerberg said AI agent development over the last four months has not "accelerated in the way we expected," and that the company's 2026 reorganization "wasn't as clean as it could have been." He said the bets Meta made on the reorg "haven't come to fruition yet," and that top executives were worried in early 2026 that "we weren't going to move fast enough" on AI. He said he still believes long-term trends align with the basic shape of the reorganization. Zuckerberg said Meta's AI spend puts strain on the company and that the stock price "would be higher" without it, but called it a long-term investment and said he expects Meta to feel more benefits of the AI push in the next 3-6 months. Separately, CTO Andrew Bosworth said Meta's mouse tracking software went through privacy, legal and other reviews before launch, and that a review of a mouse tracking data security incident so far indicates no employee data was included in AI training. Per reports.
$MU max pain here is some relief into close but below 1000, give buyers some hope into the weekend, but Korean markets are open tmr
$MU uh oh. Trump! Sam Altman! Zuck! Masa! We need something leaked to WSJ before the close or the memory uptrend is over
$MU uh oh. Trump! Sam Altman! Zuck! Masa! We need something leaked to WSJ before the close or the memory uptrend is over
I did a screen of all names in the S&P 100, the strongest emerging technical strength name of the largest 100 large caps is $BRK.B, if that gives you an idea of the type of market we’re in
At some point the volatility in this semi names is on its own a reason for funds not to own them in size? I like $CRDO but what is a risk model going to say about a stock that moves up and down 7% every day?
Do $MU bulls want to defend the channel? Important for SMH
$QCOM if you’re going to short a semi should be a name like this, laggard + massive head and shoulders. IF 100 EMA breaks, falls apart fast
Every fund just got the green light to buy their beloved $MSFT at the start of the quarter. “Good anchor position” “Solid company”
$NDX red to green but with Mag7 leading over semis, watch this space
$META selling compute cools down the race for compute across the Mag7. More than IRR driving this thing
@JimmyButlerCap The goal is to make money if the IRR for selling compute is higher than their modeled IRR for using capacity internally then it’s a no brainer
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