KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

Global LO PM Joined May 2025

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

5 months ago

@evrgn11112231 @marc_slans Fyi corpo refi wall for SPGI looks better than for MCO in 26, fwiw. Don't really get the guidance on ratings from SPGI, feels insanely conservative given refi wall, M&A and big tech issuance but ok..

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

6 months ago

@TechFundies Thanks a lot for this. Just on the OAI commitments; they said that for the AI compute contracts the contracts are roughly equivalent to the lifetime of the servers, hence ~6y. Would be more manageable for OAI. Not sure what all those shorter durations contracts are to get to 2.5

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

9 months ago

@rev_cap @TheLAPurchaser How AWS overbuild if they are telling you demand >> supply + the big guys have to rush to the neoclouds to try to somewhat meet the current demand (their stocks get rewarded) + Anthropic accelerating?

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

9 months ago

@updating_priors @MultiMismanaged Not in too much detail, but clearly with Black Knight acquisition they want go full-end-to end. If I understand it correctly they also have a platform that combines their 1p with 3p software (I assume incl Blend), to fill in current gaps.

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

10 months ago

@blankspacenom Redburn is quite decent, some more depth on the protocol dynamics etc

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

10 months ago

@linglingfool @ContrarianCurse True for most, but index options is about 45% of revs for CBOE with most being SPX (at incremental margins of >90%), so still a nice bump imo.

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

11 months ago

@longoption Worth checking $ZTS, $A, $AGCO, $ON

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11 months ago

Some interesting thoughts shared by @hkuppy here. This is the reason why I have increasingly gravitated to secular but cyclical growers. There will be a time when few want to own these waiting for the inflection and they might be dead money for a while, but the downside can be somewhat protected while one waits for value to get realized. I consider myself terrible timing inflections but just due to how markets are currently geared (momentum and chasers), it’s highly likely that the value will be realized rather quickly after the inflection. It’s definitely more frustrating to see a stock flat over 2 years only to see it rise in the third year by 50% when the business (and sentiment) inflects, but the end result is what matters. Just some thoughts on the top of my head

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

11 months ago

@marc_slans Makes sense if you can take some duration. ZTS tricky ST set-up with tough comps, Merk derm launch in Q4 and Librela struggles, hence pods pressing shorts because top line decel. However eps keeps moving up, all this is baked in the guide and should get some pipeline news in 26.

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

a year ago

@JerryCap If Satya's view of LLM commoditization is right, I guess becoming the Enterprise UI (even as just a wrapper) in this window makes sense and can just switch to another underlying LLM when the time comes?

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

a year ago

@sigmazerocap Doesn't the Grok heavy release prove the opposite?

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KahnwaldCap @KahnwaldCap

a year ago

@optionsly For now AzureAI = ChatGPT demand (mostly), hence should be share takers as long as ChatGPT demand for tokens (helped by reasoning/agents) outpaces the rest, no? Pushback would be they are starting to grow from a bigger AI revs base vs the rest I guess..