LTCM @LTCMisallocator

@NRNancy_

@DumbInvestorGuy @dalibali2 Inventing new levels of contra

Jensen speaks to Dwarkesh like you might to your dumb nephew who asked if your work at the NSA might be evil

Guy who goes max bearish on equities and then lists 6 long term events that are guaranteed to happen

here's my two cents on this as a random gen z kid first impression: i only wanna see this sort of font when i open duolingo or candy crush, not 24/7 when im on my phone. feels too silly. when you're taking a swing so big as to change the entire default ux of an iphone, you need mass consumer adoption to win and can't get away with just being a prosumer tool so, here's my thoughts on every single proposed feature as it relates to me: - reading list: i read maybe 2 books a year, which is 2 more than 99% of my friends. - personalized weather: i rarely open the weather app bc i don't care that much and would never even opt for a "weather app widget" much less a daily notification about it on my home screen - drafts email replies: before starting company, i literally had ~zero use for my email, much less drafting emails of my own. i consistently wonder how useful this will be to non-prosumers as a primary data source - prepares you for meetings & trips: think this is personally more nifty than necessary, but this potentially seems like a more useful feature. ie if im going to the beach and never bought sunscreen, would it try and remind me of that? feels too good to be true based on current llms, but that could be cool - suspicious charges: i feel this problem is completely solved for me with just an email from my bank. my cards never get stolen - reminders: i never use the reminder app because i am too lazy to type in a reminder and arrogantly assume that i can just remember to do the thing - tracks your health: i'm most interested to see this. a problem i have with all "AI" health apps is that i don't wanna see a dashboard + score + chatbot; i want something that actually gets me out of the door and taking steps or going to the gym, which is definitely doable with llm - one tap intel on wherever you are: my particular use case i got excited about is that i would personally love some sort of agent that proactively suggests events i or a girlfriend might find interesting. tickets just dropped for a rave of an artist someone im talking to likes? i would like to know + buy i am very interested to try it, this is exciting and more net new than 99% of consumer ai tech i've seen

signüll @signulll

4 months ago

excited to share what we have been up to. your iphone’s home screen hasn’t changed in ~20 years. it’s the same static grid of icons since launch with zero awareness of your actual life. @Skye is a new agentic home screen for iphone. no telegram. no mac mini. & no claws

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2 trillion dollar question of, is AGI a commodity lol

Redwood Founders @RedwoodFounders

4 months ago

Underdiscussed aspect of the AGI/benefit to society debate, is Hotelling's Law (principle of minimum differentiation), so far: - groupthink narratives on software, HALO - majority AI $ flowing towards improving: ads, coding agents When do we say society is winning?

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Guy with the most concentrated portfolio you know

Nick Pappageorge @pappageorge

4 months ago

Brad Gerstner on OpenAI & Anthropic: "[Antropic] added $4B of revenue in January, $7B in February, $11B of annualized run rates, or 10 or 11 in March. Just to put in perspective, that's Databricks plus Palantir combined that they added in a single month. Right? So we started

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Brad Gerstner on OpenAI & Anthropic: "[Antropic] added $4B of revenue in January, $7B in February, $11B of annualized run rates, or 10 or 11 in March. Just to put in perspective, that's Databricks plus Palantir combined that they added in a single month. Right? So we started with everybody at the start of the year wringing their hands, including, you know, Gurley and others saying we're in a big bubble, asking whether the AI revenues would show up to justify all of this investment, and bam, you have the largest revenue explosion in the history of technology. So the company's plans were to end the year at about a $30B exit run rate. They got there by the March... So what it showed is we have a near infinite TAM. It turns out that the TAM for intelligence is radically different than anything that we've seen before. And I think the best example of this, right, this is millions of self interested parties, consumers, enterprises, a thousand now over a million dollars [in spend]. Right? It's not that there was some great go to market in Anthropic that all of a sudden, you know, they snuck up and blew everybody away. No. It was companies demanding the product. They're getting throttled on the product. Why? Because it's so good. It makes them better at their business... And the tell here is that the TAM is as big as Dario and Sam and others have been saying. We knew intelligence was going to scale on the exponential. The question was whether revenue will scale on the exponential, and that's what we're seeing. And remember, they're doing this with only one and a half to two gigawatts of compute. Right? These guys are massively compute constrained. They're each gonna be adding three gigawatts of compute this year, and so that will unlock so they would be growing even faster... We're gonna see massive token optimization over the course of the year, but what happens on this Jevons Paradox is the the unit cost of intelligence is plummeting, not the cost of tokens. The unit cost of intelligence is plummeting because the capabilities of these models is so much better. So I think when you look out toward the end of the year, I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80B to $100B in revenue. And by the way, doing it at the same time, the OpenAI who is also on the wave, they'll be releasing an incredible model in the next imminently. They're gonna be on that wave, and you're gonna see an inflection in their revenues as well."

It’s becoming obvious to anyone with a chip design background that Nvidia is running into the physical limits of advanced packaging and quietly losing the technical moat that justified their valuation. Every new generation on their roadmap demands more design compromises than the market is pricing in. That means delays. And delays leave doors open for competitors who are already closing the gap on TCO. Exhibit A: Rubin Ultra already got gutted. The original four-die design had to be scaled back to dual-die because CoWoS-L couldn’t handle the thermal and structural stresses. The package was literally warping and compute dies weren’t making full contact with the substrate. TSMC’s advanced packaging hit a wall. That would be fine if Nvidia’s entire roadmap from Blackwell to Feynman didn’t hinge on pushing that same technology harder every twelve months. Their workaround now is a 2+2 configuration at the board level. But that’s a fundamentally different interconnect topology. You lose the die-to-die bandwidth density of a unified CoWoS interposer and fall back to PCB-level signaling between halves. For inference-latency-sensitive workloads, that’s a real performance degradation Jensen isn’t discussing and it’s exactly why he’s been so hostile to the idea of inference ASICs for years. He knows the cracks are showing. And my real fear is what if this isn’t the end of resorting to PCB packaging? Feynman is claiming 6 or 8 reticle dies on one interposer and they can’t even get 4 working? This would be absolutely catastrophic !!! Not to mention they even had to respin Rubin. After the first tapeout completed in late June 2025, Nvidia redesigned the chip in response to AMD’s MI450 and had to push TDP from 1800W to 2000W with a new tapeout not expected until late September/October now. That’s directly impacting the 2026 launch schedule and supply. But even more concerning than that is why does Nvidia need to make such big reactive design changes mid-tapeout on a chip this complex? It’s because the original spec wasn’t where it needed to be and their answer was to push more power to do it which isn’t a design win. On top of that, HBM4 verification delays at SK Hynix and Micron forced Nvidia to cut its 2026 Rubin production target from 2 million units to 1.5 million. This is the same movie as the Blackwell ramp: announce jaw-dropping specs, watch TSMC and memory vendors struggle to deliver, and let the revenue targets slip. The market doesn’t price Nvidia on delivering it prices it on announcements lol. Jensen knows this, which is why GTC has turned into a Hajj for speculators rather than a conference for design partners. So this is the core issue: the annual cadence of Blackwell (2024) → Rubin (2026) → Feynman (2028) is physically unsustainable but is necessary to justify its valuation. “Ultra” refreshes between each generation increasingly look like patches for unmet design objectives and every generation is stacking a new memory standard, a new packaging technology, and a new process node simultaneously. TSMC is already forced to explore alternatives like CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate) because CoWoS-L can’t scale to where Nvidia needs it. All that introduces 6-12 months of delays and yield ramp risk and stacking all these is begging for even compounding delays. And this is the crucial point the market is starting to wake up to: when you have billions in data center construction costs on the line and customers to serve, you do not care where your chips come from as long as they meet spec and show up on time. It’s why Google has TPUs and Amazon has Tranium, the market for selling inference accelerators is much smaller than serving tokens… that’s the real business at the end of the day.

zerohedge @zerohedge

4 months ago

*MICHAEL BURRY SAYS HE ADDED TO NVIDIA PUT CONTRACTS

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Interesting stat: In the recent correction, the S&P may have only corrected 9% peak to trough but the forward PE contracted by close to 20%

Basically every 1:1 and office hour I had this week was ppl outright asking if they’ll be replaced by AI From ICs up to Directors. Everyone’s scared This is an existential issue (and mistake) for the labs. I know they’re trying to juice their IPO…they’ll regret the doomerism

rough time to be an underperforming software analyst now that hedge fund managers have learned you can forward deploy your analysts into war zones in search of alpha

Give a nerd a few billion dollars and he’s still a nerd who wants the cool kids to like him

High Yield Harry @HighyieldHarry

5 months ago

Look I think a lot of ppl slip up and say words they normally don’t say when they’re angry, but how embarrassing is it seeing a large VC lean into trying to professionalize the R-Word?

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Trying to figure out Trump is like trying to manage my wife. One minute she's demanding we go shopping, the next she's calling it off just because she changed her mind. It’s absurd. If her baseball team wins, life is great. If they lose, the whole house goes into lockdown. Her logic is purely emotional. Predicting her behavior is tougher than forecasting the weather for Natgas trading. That’s Trump for you. Stop looking for hidden meanings or 14D chess moves. It's not that deep—he's just as temperamental as a woman dealing with PMS. #oott #iran

Every podcast on the war: Guest: "If Iran does the rational thing and agrees to a negotiated settlement, it will be fine." Host: "And if not?" Guest: "Then it's a tough situation."

some views on the market: - this will be the most mean-reverting EPS season I think in recent history. stuff that has gotten killed on cyclical fears will likely tell you it's not that bad and rip; while giga-outperformers who put up fine numbers will get sold - "omg it's so cheap" is not a sufficient bull case. accelerate at incrementally better GMs or die - the war ensures we are in a range bound but slowly drifting down market. there is real risk to "selling it all" since you'll miss the giga-rally which is supporting stocks. best to try to play idio pairs until earnings

Already wrote that one. Here it is: The five-second epistemology of the counterattack. Any Gulf state that assists in a direct attack on Iran will have missiles sent to its palaces. Not its infrastructure. Its palaces. The buildings where the kings sleep. The throne itself. Iran said this on day one. The missile hits the palace. The monarchy is over. And somebody forgot the most basic difference between the Sunnis and the Shia. The one that matters to this war more than any theological dispute. The Gulf is ruled by monarchies. Hereditary kingdoms. Kings and emirs and crown princes who rule because their fathers ruled. Iran is a republic. Elections. Parliament. Supreme leaders chosen by an assembly. Kill a king and the kingdom ends. Kill a supreme leader and the republic convenes and selects the next one and the next one says not the right time for peace. That’s why nineteen days in, not one Gulf airforce has fired back. Bahrain has intercepted 125 missiles and 203 drones and returned zero. Saudi Arabia intercepts over the Eastern Province and doesn’t retaliate. The UAE absorbs strikes on Fujairah, Shah, Dubai International, Sheikh Zayed Road, and doesn’t scramble a single jet. Qatar takes four ballistic missiles and issues evacuation orders in Doha and doesn’t fire back. Every monarchy making the same calculation every day — absorb the damage, don’t cross the line. The monarchies live there. They understand this. The people tweeting about Gulf airforces counterattacking do not. Iran has all the leverage and knows exactly how to use it. A country that read Sun Tzu better than the Chinese and Clausewitz better than the Germans and the Quran better than the Arabs the empire is hiding behind. Iran has been under sanctions for forty-five years. Fought an eight-year war while the world armed Saddam with chemical weapons. Built the IRGC during deprivation. Built its missile program under sanctions. Built its drone fleet under maximum pressure. Every program the empire is trying to destroy was built during the deprivation the empire now threatens as consequence. The threat is the environment Iran already operates in. The threat is Tuesday. Even Dalio figured it out. The ability to withstand pain is more important than the ability to inflict pain. The kitchen said it first. Karbala is the pain thesis. Fourteen centuries of not submitting. The empire threatening Iran with the thing Iran has already survived while Iran threatens the Gulf monarchies with the one thing they cannot survive. The Gulf states recover more easily. The Gulf states whose 95 to 140 jackup rigs are idle. Whose offshore fields are on decline curves. Whose refineries are under evacuation order. Whose force majeures are declared. Whose Strait is closed. Whose LNG terminals are burning. Whose airports are taking drone debris. The recovery hasn’t started because the war hasn’t stopped and the war hasn’t stopped because the dispensationalist Disney World needs the prophecy and the prophecy requires the war. Day nineteen. The palaces are standing. The thrones are intact. Because Iran said what it would do and every monarchy believed it. The counterattack is a fantasy of someone who doesn’t understand why it hasn’t happened yet. The monarchies are monarchies. The republic is a republic. The Strait is closed.

me playing OG fortnite and realizing I dont miss the old map I just miss my old life

I don’t want to watch the McDonald’s CEO eat a burger. I want to watch Daron Acemoglu use Stata.

Iran war scenarios from the Eurasia Group.