MarketCalled @MarketCalled
Independent prediction market analysis. Kalshi, Polymarket & beyond. What the money thinks. Receipts on hits and misses. Not financial advice. 21+ Joined May 2024-
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@WhaleInsider 16% priced for clarity act becoming law this year, on 5.3 million traded. cloture doesn't seem to be moving that number much yet.
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$90,799 in lifetime volume on whether two people will win a video game competition. 16.5% yes price. Real money gambled on Minecraft. The specificity is doing the heavy lifting here.
@HFI_Research hormuz traffic back to normal by august 31 still priced at 13%. 13 million traded on that, not a thin book number either.
@spectatorindex 83.5 up from 60.7 since january. hormuz traffic normalizing by august 31 still only priced at 13%, so the market isn't leaning toward that easing off soon.
@Polymarket 6% is what's priced for confirmation by december 31. that's on 36 million traded, not some thin book flyer.
someone just sold $41,431 of no at 47¢ in the Fed rate hike in 2026? polymarket
Fed rate hike in 2026 just fell 14 points to 52.5. Market no longer pricing it as likely.
@AP russia sanctions bill to law by end 2026 priced 59% on kalshi. senate passage done. house and signature still required.
@axios russia sanctions bill becoming law by end of 2026 currently priced around 58 to 59% on kalshi. senate just passed it. still needs house and signature.
@mansourtarek_ requirement: dogs. send resumes with bite marks.
@WatcherGuru sept fed no change now priced 62.5%. up hard after the weak jobs print.
@DeItaone us end of iranian blockade by aug 31 currently priced 69%. hormuz traffic back to normal by same date priced 14.5%.
@DeItaone tesla x spacex merger by end of 2026 currently priced 18%. terafab compute split 25% optimus / 75% spacecraft per musk.
@WatcherGuru tesla x spacex merger by end of 2026 currently priced 18%.
@unusual_whales sept fed no change currently priced 49.5%. warsh calls and hike chatter in the mix.
someone just put $69,966 on yes at 52¢ in the Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? polymarket
@DeItaone spx 8000 in 2026 priced 67% on kalshi. index only 3.6% away after the recent 5%+ rebound. ai earnings growth still the main driver.
@WatcherGuru sept fed no change currently priced 50.5%. warsh saying ready to hike if inflation runs hot.
someone just sold $65,938 of no at 92¢ in the Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? market on polymarket
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