Max Niederman @MaxNiederman
crafting artisanal slop as head of quality @ mechanize maxniederman.com San Francisco, CA Joined October 2019-
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@yacineMTB me buying ram while holding Micron I bought with my AI company salary
This is true but matters much less in a world of rapidly improving coding agents. There is effectively a very high discount rate on future programming work.
In software, complexity is a tax you pay on every future change. You might think, "as long as it works, I'm good, I don't care about aesthetics", but elegant code is about maintainability, not aesthetics. Elegant code is deeply practical.
@navvye @panickssery @AndrewSabisky The correct metric is profit which unfortunately OR does not report, but thankfully here the usage on Nemotron 3 is so abysmal even at -100% margins that it's pretty clearly not even close to competitive.
Has anyone tried to make DeepSeek but US? Like a lab that just distills frontier models into a way cheaper model?
@navvye @panickssery @AndrewSabisky The version that isn't 100% subsidized has only 15B tokens/week usage, btw.
@navvye @panickssery @AndrewSabisky Despite being FREE, Nemotron 3 Ultra is just barely matching the usage of Kimi K2.6 on OpenRouter, let alone the more popular open models which each have ~10x the usage.
If it was as succesful, then why don't US companies really have a good competitor against cheap Chinese models? AFAICT, Chinese labs just have some sort of advantage in the business of releasing cheap open weights models, or else there would be an American competitor. Points 1 and 2 are my guesses for what that advantage could be. Point 1 is that DS et al. don't need to compete against Ant/OAI/etc to hire the best Chinese talent, so they can get good talent while doing the relatively less prestigious work of a trailing lab. Point 2 is that the CCP may have simply decided that they wanted to have good open models, and allocated lots of capital accordingly. This may have resulted in more availability of capital to Chinese open weights labs than self-interested American VCs will provide to American open-weights labs, allowing Chinese labs to create better open weights models at the cost of lower margins.
Yes, American labs do some distillation, but it seems to be much less popular as a main driver of capabilities, or at least much less succesful. My main guesses for why are (1) it's less prestigious so DS et al.'s advantage competing for Chinese talent is really important or (2) the CCP just allocates more capital to open weights labs than the business model warrants.
@DafyddFD @SakanaAILabs Their models suck tho. I'm much more interested in labs that are actually succeeding at this.
@panickssery @AndrewSabisky Yes, DS has good pretraining, but the reason they’re able to compete on the price-performance frontier is distillation. The “just” in my sentence was supposed to denote that it would be easy for American labs to do this, not that it’s operationally the only thing that DeepSeek
@sheggle_ I’d be willing to write you puts (dm me), but for full transparency you may want to read my clarification: x.com/maxniederman/s…
@panickssery @AndrewSabisky Yes, DS has good pretraining, but the reason they’re able to compete on the price-performance frontier is distillation. The “just” in my sentence was supposed to denote that it would be easy for American labs to do this, not that it’s operationally the only thing that DeepSeek
Yes, DS has good pretraining, but the reason they’re able to compete on the price-performance frontier is distillation. The “just” in my sentence was supposed to denote that it would be easy for American labs to do this, not that it’s operationally the only thing that DeepSeek does.
@navvye wdym allow people to dm you I thought you were talking about cold DMs
@navvye idk about you but my linkedin DMs are absolute dogshit compared to all other platforms
Ordering something not from Amazon is a weird experience because you remember how much life sucked before everything you ordered was delivered in <1 day.
@navvye Ideally not on LinkedIn though. LinkedIn is usually insane slop and no signal.
Instead of a moratorium on data centers, I’m calling for a moratorium on tech conferences that create traffic jams and make me late for work. They probably use a lot of water too (despite tech oligarchs attempting to CONCEAL this).
@leebriskcyrano Yeah the spinal cord is also doing a lot of the work, but the latency there is about the same.
The round-trip time from a human’s hand to their brain is roughly 40ms, on par with the RTT to a datacenter in many hypothetical robot deployments. This suggests that very little edge compute is necessary for robots to achieve human-level dexterity.
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